The Toronto Maple Leafs drafted Timothy Liljegren 17th overall this past June.
While conventional wisdom suggests he’ll likely is going to stay in Europe for another season of development, you shouldn’t rule out him making his NHL debut this October with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
I am fully aware that the Leafs have directly said that they’ll send him back to Europe after training camp. But there is no rule that says they have to stick with that assessment. I mean, what else are they going to say? Anything else sets off a chain of hype that would easily get out of control.
And there is already a lot of hype surrounding Liljegren. Deservedly.
The Toronto Maple leafs drafted Liljegren 17th overall despite his preseason ranking being #2 overall. Liljegren fell in the draft because he contracted mono and it ruined his season. Once you recover from mono, you’ve lost weight and training time, and it takes months to fully get back to where you were.
That is for normal people – forget about attempting to be a 17 year old professional athlete. NHL GMs are notably risk averse and the fact that he fell is a reflection of the overall bad jobs most general managers do, and not the player.
The Leafs essentially stole a high-end, top-of-the-drat player at a place where you’re lucky just to pick someone who makes the show, let alone stars in it.
Toronto Maple Leafs, Rookies, October:
Despite their backwards stance on hair-cuts and a few questionable contracts, the Leafs have shown to be a fairly progressive team in their use of analytics.
One thing analytics have shown us is that it’s opportunity, not age, that prevents young players from being successful in the NHL. The Leafs admirably showed no compunction about following this rule last year while dressing, at times, up to nine rookies in a single game.
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Auston Matthews jumped straight to the NHL, as do most #1 picks and the majority of top-three picks. Liljegren – who many fans hoped the Leafs would tank for an additional year just to get – should be looked at as the top-three pick he was going to be, if not for some bad luck.
Last year Jacob Chychrun jumped straight to the NHL and was successful. Chychrun, like LIljegren, also was a top-three pick who dropped like a rock in his draft due to erroneous injury concerns.
Why Liljegren Might Make It
We have established that Liljegren, as a top pick would have been expected to at least compete for an NHL spot right away. We’ve shown that there is precedence for it happening (Chychrun).
There are other reasons too.
- The Leafs are weak when it comes to right-handed defensemen.
- They’ve shown they will put young players right in the fire.
- Analytics have shown that opportunity matters more than age.
- Liljegren already has NHL skill.
But the biggest reason of all to insert him into the opening night lineup? The salary cap. The Leafs are right up against it. If Liljegren was rookie-of-the-year level good, they’d be adding an above average player to an already solid lineup and it would barely count against their cap.
The main reason the Leafs can try to turn themselves into a legit contender right now is because they have so many above-average players on entry-level-contracts. Adding one more gives them the chance to exploit the salary cap that much more.
Next: Leafs Need to Sign Connor Brown
He has to be good enough to make it, but if he is, it would really, really help the Toronto Maple Leafs to have Timothy Liljegren in the lineup this October.