Toronto Maple Leafs: Connor Brown Contract Analysis

The Toronto Maple Leafs have Signed Connor Brown.

We’ve been waiting for this all summer. The Toronto Maple Leafs finally made it happen. The best part? It’s so much better than anyone could have hoped.

Three years, $2.1 Cap-Hit.

Now, when players sign team-friendly deals, I am always of two minds. I am happy because the team I cheer for now has more money to spend against the cap. Getting players signed for value is perhaps the most important thing a GM can do.

On the other hand, I cheer for the players in anything that pits them against ownership. The fact is, an NHL player has a limited window of earning, he has an incredibly rare ability, and the team makes a crap-load of money off him. I definitely want players to take fat-cat corporate owners to the bank.

So while this is good for the Leafs, and me as a fan, I have to wonder if Brown should be firing his agent. I mean – he could have gotten way more money.

Great Deal for the Leafs

Though Brown could have gotten more money, he has essentially bet on himself. The contract is for three years and has a cap hit of $2.1 million. This is a huge bargain for a 20 goal rookie (14 5v5) with positive possession stats.

Brown, however, could have probably gotten more per year if he agreed to a long-term deal. Maybe as much as $4 million if he signed with the Toronto Maple Leafs for the duration of his prime. I would have thought that even on a short-term deal, however, that he’d have gotten at least $3 million.

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Instead, he gets enough money to make him more than comfortable for life, and he gets to sign a new contract when he’s 26. If, in these three years, he becomes a 40 goals scorer, or a star player of some kind, he could make six or seven million, maybe even more. Who knows how the NHL’s finances go from here?

So Brown took a bit of a hit to bet on himself. I don’t generally like bridge deals from a team perspective, but I think that they make sense for players like Brown. For example, if you give a bridge deal to Nylander, it’s only going to cost you more money for a player you know is a superstar and who you know you want long-term.

Brown might cost more in the future, but you can’t have eight players on max deals because you need to maintain some flexibility. We’re also not sure what Brown is going to be. Can he improve his defense? Can he score 30? What’s his ceiling? He’s not the sure-thing that Nylander, Marner and Matthews are.

Window

The Toronto Maple Leafs might have scored a huge win if they got Brown to sign long-term, but you can see why that isn’t in Brown’s interest. However, it’s possible that this is an even bigger win for the Leafs since there is zero risk for them, it’s so cheap, and it coincides with their current window for winning.

The Leafs have a great young team and they might end up with several great windows of Championship Contention. Right now, however, they’re in a window where their best players are all dirt-cheap, which allows them to manipulate the cap in their favor and gives them the best opportunity they’ll ever have to win.

By getting Brown for only a $2 million cap hit, with two of the contract’s three years being during the window where Matthews, Nylander and Marner are cheap, it gives the Leafs an even bigger advantage they already had.

Next: Toronto Maple Leafs Top 10 Prospects

I have been a critic of the Toronto Maple Leafs all summer. I think their moves have bordered between unnecessary (Marleau) and willfully stupid (Hainsey). But this is a redemption of sorts, because this move borders on genius.

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