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Toronto Maple Leafs: Zaitsev Deal Shanahan’s Biggest Risk

By Eduardo Razo

Mar 18, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Nikita Zaitsev (22) controls the puck against the Chicago Blackhawks at Air Canada Centre. The Blackhawks beat the Maple Leafs 2-1 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 18, 2017; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Nikita Zaitsev (22) controls the puck against the Chicago Blackhawks at Air Canada Centre. The Blackhawks beat the Maple Leafs 2-1 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports /
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After signing a seven-year extension, the Toronto Maple Leafs put their faith in Nikita Zaitsev. The 25-year-old represents the biggest gamble yet for Brendan Shanahan and company.

During the Shanahan era, everything has gone according to plan for the Toronto Maple Leafs. They have drafted well, selecting elite talents like William Nylander and Mitch Marner.

Furthermore, they flexed their financial muscle to bring in Mike Babcock. Signing him to an eight-year deal worth $50M to guide Toronto to the promise land.

However, there are certain situations where their money couldn’t help them. . After stripping the team down and bottoming out, they won the draft lottery. Thus, allowing them to get lucky and obtain a franchise center in Auston Matthews.

Now that their offense has its core; fixing the defense is next on the agenda. Nevertheless, the problem is more complex with no blue chip prospect in the system.

The Toronto Maple Leafs will rely on shrewd trades and signings to build a defense that compliments their young offensive core. Zaitsev is evident of this and proved a viable top four defensemen.

Management has taken a gamble on the Russian defenseman after one year in the National Hockey League. The cap hit of $4.5M doesn’t necessarily scare fans, but the term of the new contract made some uneasy.

Seven years, that’s the commitment Toronto has made to Zaitsev. For a defenseman who would play on the second pairing on a championship team, it’s a gamble. Something Shanahan and company haven’t done much of.

Zaitsev’s Offensive Game

In 82 games, Zaitsev registered 36 points (4 goals and 32 assists) while playing on the top-pairing with Morgan Rielly most of the season. Here’s a look at his season, in a nutshell, courtesy of HockeyViz.

First focusing on his offensive game, Zaitsev became more comfortable as the season went along. His points per 60 went up from December towards the end of the season. There were some bumps, but he was able to overcome then.

By the end of the season, Zaitsev had a 7.96% shooting percentage; only Jake Gardiner finished higher. However, it didn’t result in as many goals, as he finished with four, sometimes the pucks don’t go in.

Nonetheless, his shooting percentage did help generate 32 assists. Also, his SCF60 (Scoring Chances Per 60) took off in the second half of the season. He became a vital part of Toronto’s push towards their playoff berth.

For “rookie” defensemen who’s adjusting to a new league, style of play, and smaller rink to put up 36 points is a solid season.

Going forward though, if he continues with his high shooting percentage expect some puck luck. Expect him to get close to 10 goals and climb over the 40-point mark next season, if healthy.

Zaitsev’s Defensive Outlook

When it comes to his defense, it was inconsistent this past season. Which is the best outcome when they placed Zaitsev on the top-pairing.

For the most part, he played alongside Rielly this past season with occasional instances with Jake Gardiner. The pairing was good offensively, but bad defensively and that’s putting it nicely.

The pairings SCA60 (Scoring Chances Against Per 60) topped out at 10.47. However, when he played with Gardiner the pair only saw an SCA60 of 6. 88. This visual of Zaitsev’s SCA60 over the course shows how he struggled to play in his end.

Playing against the opposition’s top line, Toronto surrendered a high amount of shots. Here’s how they fared with Zaitsev was on the ice and off it when it came to shots surrendered. 

As a result of these scoring chances against, his other defensive numbers were affected. Zaitsev’s CA60 (Corsi-Against Per 60) ballooned up to 61.46, that’s awful. 

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These stats don’t imply that Zaitsev can’t improve, but the Toronto Maple Leafs need to slide him down. He’s better off facing opponents second-tier lines, as opposed to going up against their elite. It’s a story this organization has seen before. Miscasting and asking players to play roles that aren’t suited for them.

This management team knows it lacks a top-pair defenseman. Expect them to add a defenseman or two that allows them to put Zaitsev in a position to succeed.  Will he?  That is the risk. It’s Shanahan’s biggest yet.

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