Toronto Maple Leafs: Morgan Rielly Future Star

Make no mistake: Morgan Rielly is the future of the Toronto Maple Leafs blueline.

While Editor in Leaf  is a diverse collection of writers who are all entitled to their own opinions, it is the editorial stance of this site that the Toronto Maple Leafs Morgan Rielly is awesome.  We love him.  In response to yesterday’s thought-provoking piece questioning his abilities, I present this rebuttal.

Whether it’s the pure talent, how fun he is to watch, the fact the Leafs haven’t drafted and developed a high-end top-of-the-draft defenseman in generations, or the personality of the player – we love Morgan Rielly.

I believe, and unless I’m very mistaken, the Leafs also believe that he is their future defensive answer to Nylander, Matthews and Marner.

It’s easy to forget this team is in it’s first year post-tanking.  The core pieces may be in place, and the team is good, so our expectations are climbing everyday.  But if the Leafs didn’t believe in Morgan Rielly, if they weren’t more concerned with his development than winning this season, then he wouldn’t be the team’s #1 defenseman.  Which is what he’s deployed as.

No. If Morgan Rielly’s development wasn’t a primary concern, the Toronto Maple Leafs would play Gardiner in his place, because, currently, Gardiner is a better player.   That won’t be the case in two years, however, and the Leafs are anything but short-sighted.

Morgan Rielly: Now and in the Future

Currently, Morgan Rielly has a CF% of 50.07 – which is pretty good when you consider he’s the top defenseman on a horrible defensive team.  A team with nine rookies, of which his partner is one of them.

Rielly moves to a very respectable 51.7% when he gets away from Zaitsev.  I’d say if you’re a bottom-third defensive team, and your primary defenseman is nearly a 52% player, then it’s not his fault.  (Note: the range of Corsi is small, so minor increases are more important than they may appear).

Keep in mind: Rielly’s skating is sublime.  His passing is elite.  He moves the puck and appears to be an intelligent player.  Anyone who watched the Sportsnet documentary leading up to the Winter Classic also knows he’s the team’s defacto Captain.

And he’s 23 and this is the first time he’s been on a team that isn’t a ______ disaster.  Honestly, what are we complaining about here?

Rielly has improved his Corsi percentage every year he’s been in the league.  He needs two more 5v5 points in the next 18 games to set a career high in 5v5 points – a total that, once that happens, will have improved each year he’s been in the league.

Last year he had 36 points in a league where 40 is the gold-standard for really-good defenseman.  This year, he’s been off the top PP unit, so that number has gone down, but his 5v5 production (more important) has gone up.

By every metric, he’s improving.   Where he isn’t, a comparison to seasons past and his numbers away from Zaitsev suggest we shouldn’t be blaming Rielly.

Peers in their Age 23 Season:

In 2009-10, when Kris Letang was the age Rielly is now, he put up 27 points. He scored 20 points 5v5 and was a 55% player (playing on a Stanley Cup team).

When Duncan Keith was turning 23, he was as rookie. He put up just 21 points in all situations. Corsi and 5v5 data is not available for that year.

P.K Subban, in the season where he turned 23, scored 18 5v5 points and was a 49.7% Corsi player.

Brent Burns, scored 17 5v5 points and was a 50.3% player at that age.

Erik Karlsson is a freak. He doesn’t count.

So, what this tells us, is that other than Erick Karlsson, who is a first-ballot hall-of-famer and one of the greatest defenseman of all-time,  Morgan Rielly is on par with the development of every player we could conceivably hope he turns out like.

Rielly is possessing the puck and putting up points at roughly  the same pace/rate as Brent Burns, Duncan Keith, P.K Subban and Kris Letang did at the same age.  The only difference is that those guys didn’t have to do it as the focal point of the Toronto Maple Leafs defense.

Morgan Rielly is developing at exactly the pace that we hoped for when we decided that he was the future of the Leafs blueline.  He is not “a future #2” or a “complimentary” player.

He’s a future Norris Trophy nominee. He’s a future Stanley Cup winner.  (probably).  He would be the best thing about the Leafs in a normal year when they weren’t blessed with three elite-level rookies.

This should silence his critics. But it’s Toronto, so it probably won’t.

All stats from stats. hockey.analysis.com,  corsica.hockey, hockeydb.com