Toronto Maple Leafs @ the Trade Deadline
The Toronto Maple Leafs could approach the March 1st Trade Deadline in several ways.
They could move expiring contracts and superfluous players. They could load up for a Playoff run. The Toronto Maple Leafs could also do both.
Who knows? Here’s my take:
Standings + Rebuild
As far as I am concerned, the “rebuild” was over the day the Leafs drafted Matthews. Doesn’t mean they shouldn’t keep building towards having a better team. It simply means that the moves they make can no longer be strictly about the future.
The Leafs are in relatively good playoff position. If we were to convert the standings to a baseball-style ‘games’ system, the Leafs are only two games behind the Canadiens for the Atlantic lead. A win tonight vs the Rangers coupled with a Habs loss will put the Leafs three points back with a game in hand.
A look at the league’s team stats shows the Leafs are a top-ten team oveall. They are 7th in 5v5 score-adjusted possession. They are ranked second in 5v5 expected goals scored. Their PDO (luck measurement) suggests they’ve got around the amount of points they should have. This means they aren’t being propped up by unsustaibable stats, like a high-shooting percentage or a hot goalie. (corsica.hockey).
They are 8th in Penalty Killing and First in Power-Play. (NHL.com)
Based on all available objective evidence the Maple Leafs are one of the NHL’s best teams.
What this Means
The Toronto Maple Leafs cannot waste this season. They might not be an elite contender, (thought they actually might be) but any experience they can get their young core is going to be of paramount importance in the upcoming years.
This means that selling off pending UFAs for picks makes no sense. Even if the Leafs get a player better than Hunwick or Polak, they have to keep those guys in order to insure themselves against injury.
The Toronto Maple Leafs must be a playoff buyer.
I would not recommend making trades with short-sighted goals in mind. The Leafs aren’t in a position to trade a first-rounder for a pending UFA just to get a short-term playoff bump.
They could, however, trade a first-round pick if the return was valuable enough. That’s the danger of the NHL – you don’t often have the best special teams in hockey while being a top-ten 5v5 squad.
As much as the word “rebuild” gets thrown around, if you looked at just the numbers and not who had them, you’d almost certainly recommend this team ‘go for it.’
Especially if that team was flushed with cap-space.
What to Do
You can ‘go for it’ without doing so myopically. The Toronto Maple Leafs have assets – Van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Kapanen, Leipsic, first round picks, and a radical amount of cap-space.
They don’t have to move all those assets, but they clearly have options.
They need: A defensively responsible defenseman to pair with Morgan Rielly and compliment his game. Zaitsev is a good player in his own right, but as a pairing…..yikes! I recommend Josh Manson or Chris Tanev.
They need: At least one bottom pairing player. I would say two, but ideally they get the top-pairing guy and move Zaitsev/ Carrick down the lineup.
Theoretically, they don’t even need this, but just have to play Martin Marincin, but Babcock is a stubborn dude and doesn’t seem to believe the stats here.
They need: A fourth line centre. Ben Smith, Fred Guathier, Brookes Laich….they are all no good for this job. This shouldn’t be too hard to fill in.
They need: A power forward. Fat chance, but I’d like to see them get Landeskog for this role. The Leafs have a great team, but could use a grinder capable of 30 goals. Just for balance.
They need: A defensively elite forward. Komarov is/might be close. But the Leafs have a very weak team defense and it’s not all because of the defensemen. A Nino Niedereitter / Marrian Hossa type is what they need.
All in all, Auston Matthews hit the FF button on the rebuild and it’s not inconceivable that the Leafs could win the Cup this spring. Unlikely as it is, the stats and the cap space say they have to try.