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Dion Phaneuf: A Fit For The Maple Leafs Captain

By Torrin Batchelor

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Jan 2, 2015; Saint Paul, MN, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Dion Phaneuf (3) in the second period against the Minnesota Wild at Xcel Energy Center. The Minnesota Wild win 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Big bold headline to catch your attention today LeafsNation, and that’s good, because it should. Dion Phaneuf, oh Captain, my Captain, it is time for you to part ways from the slowly scorching earth of these, our Toronto Maple Leafs.

This isn’t an attack on Phaneuf, who can still be a very useful player for the Leafs if he does stick around as long as he is handled properly. We are simply going to look at his stats, his contract, age and where he fits in the rebuild going further. After looking at all these factors, I’m going to show you why a trade with the Buffalo Sabres is the perfect ending to this relationship for the Leafs, the Sabres and for Dion Phaneuf himself.

Meet Dion Phaneuf

Age: 30

Position: Left Defence (Prefers Right Defence)

Shoots: Left

Height / Weight: 6ft3 / 214Lbs

Drafted / Acquired: 2003 NHL Entry Draft, 1st Round, 9thOA / From Calgary January 31st 2010

Contract Status: 6yrs Remaining, 7M AAV, Limited NTC

2014-2015 Stats: 70GP, 3G, 26A, 29PTS, 15PPP, 108PIM, -11, 138Shots, 23:43TOI/GP, 166Hits, 126Blk

Contract:

Why it doesn’t work for Toronto:

Phaneuf now has 6 years left of 7AAV, taking him until he is 36 years old. Most Leaf fans would agree that Phaneuf is at least slightly overpaid for his current role on the team, and that will only grow as he ages and continues to decline.

Why it does work for Buffalo:

Dion Phaneuf rolls into Buffalo and Terry Pegula doesn’t even blink at his 7M salary. Buffalo could shed some crappy contracts the other way and use Dion Phaneuf’s 7M Cap hit to stay above the salary floor. The Pegula’s bleed money, they just shelled out 52M in salary and another 45.5M in signing bonuses to Ryan O’Reilly – a defensively superior, but offensively average center. They can afford Phaneuf’s 42M salary and 12M signing bonuses without breaking a sweat.

Age + Positional Fit:

Why it doesn’t work for Toronto:

Phaneuf is 30 years old, he turns 31 halfway through next season and with Toronto just starting into their rebuild that age doesn’t really make a lot of sense, especially as their captain.

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Why it does work for Buffalo:

Buffalo however is trying to aggressively come out of their full-out-tank as seen by trading picks+prospects for Evander Kane and Zach Bogosian before the deadline, as well as trading for the before mentioned Defensive ace Ryan O’Reilly (ROR from here on out), as well as a young bursting with potential netminder in Robin Lehner at the draft.

That is 2 major offensive upgrades at forward and a big time upgrade in the crease, but they haven’t touched their blackhole of a blue line as of yet… enter Dion Phaneuf. At 30 years old, he joins Matt Moulson (31), Brian Gionta (36), David Legwand (34), Cody McCormick (32) and Josh Gorges (30) as the veteran shepherds of this young and upcoming Buffalo Sabres team.

Offensive Contributions:

Why it doesn’t work for Toronto:

Dion Phaneuf has proven he cannot be relied upon as a teams go-to No.1 Dman during his time with the Toronto Maple Leafs. When asked to play over 21 minutes a game his effectiveness starts to fall off offensively and defensively. He still has a heavy shot, but doesn’t use it as much shooting only 138 times this year.

With Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, Martin Marincin and the upcoming youngsters Stuart Percy and Victor Loov (all left-handed shots like Phaneuf) looking ready to take over the offensive side of the blue line for Toronto, it’s not quite clear where Dion Phaneuf fits going forward.

Why it does work for Buffalo:

Phaneuf may not be the same fiery dynamic and explosive blue liner he was in his early 20’s with the Calgary Flames, but he still has a lethal shot (just ask Lupul’s broken arm). In 8 fewer games played, Phaneuf’s 29pts would’ve led the Buffalo Sabres blue line in scoring by 9points, with Rasmus Ristolainen leading the Sabres D with 20pts.

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Keeping in mind there was literally no one to pass the puck too at forward for the Sabres last year, you can take that with a grain of salt. Let’s break it down into Points per 60 minutes played to get a better look at productivity. Including all Leafs and Sabres Dmen, Phaneuf places 3rd at 1.02P/60Min played behind only Franson and Reilly. Nikita Zadorov led the Sabres D-corps at .85P/60Min played but he was sent packing in the ROR trade.

Where Phaneuf still really carriers value offensively is on the power play where he tallied 15 of his 25 points and 2 of his 3 goals this past season. The ideal trigger-point man on any power play setup, Phaneuf has a cannon slap shot that keeps defenders honest to his threat at the point opening up room on the half boards for quick passing and cycling plays. Buffalo had the WORST ranked PP unit in the league last season at a 13.4% conversion rate, Kane, ROR and 2nd overall pick Jack Eichel will help with that but so too would adding a bona-fide weapon on the point.

Defensive Contributions:

Why it doesn’t work for Toronto:

An amalgamation of the Age+Offensive contributions mentioned above, a 30 year old Phaneuf just isn’t up to the task of continuing to be the Leafs No.1 Dman. He can score, he can hit and he can play D, it just seems when he is tasked with playing 23+ minutes a night regularly with a healthy portion of shift starts in the defensive zone that he can never manage to do all 3 at the same time. Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner and the rest of the young Leafs defensive group are ready to assume the mantle of responsibility or sink trying, but Phanuef will block them from truly jumping into the deep end.

Why it does work for Buffalo:

Unlike the Leafs, the Sabres have some pretty solid defensive Dman pieces already in Bogosian, Gorges and Ristolainen. Dion Phaneuf could slide into the top pairing role with the smooth skating, positionally sound, Ristolainen and have Gorges+Bogosian take most of the heavy defensive lifting assignments.

This would allow Dion to focus on the PP which is his greatest strength and keep his minutes under 23 a night where he stays at his peak performance level the longest. Also freeing up the Sabres to not rush along young Mark Pysyk (23) or Jake McCabe (21).

What does a Dion Phaneuf to the Buffalo Sabres trade look like?

It could go a number of different ways as Phaneuf does still carry some serious value, but also has an albatross contract and years of negative Toronto media as baggage. This is personal observation and guess-timation not based off of any rumours or insider-info.

Why it works for both teams:

The Leafs truly, finally, press the reset button and start fresh under the Shanahan regime shedding their Captain and second major foundation piece of the core that Brian Burke built. Buffalo can afford to move the young dynamic Sam Reinhart with the recent additions of ROR and Jack Eichel combined with current Sabres centres Zemgus Girgensons and Tyler Ennis, there just doesn’t look to be room for him any time soon.

The cap hit isn’t a big deal for Buffalo as they are now 12.7M below the ceiling and by sending salary dumps in Legwand and McGinn to Toronto only take on an extra 1.1M in cap space this season. Going forward Phaneuf’s deal still isn’t an issue for the Sabres as they have everyone locked up long-term except Girgensons + Ristolainen end of next season, Lehner in 2 seasons and then Evander Kane and Jack Eichel at the end of the 2017-2018 season. Sam Carrick + Matt Frattin act purely as a balancing of the contract limit as the Leafs are at 49 already and still have to sign RFA Bernier.

With the cap continuing to rise, even if only marginally like this season, they will still be in excellent cap space shape. The Leafs add another 2 solid pieces to their rebuild in a 2016 2nd round pick – giving them 2 picks in the 2016 2nd round and 12 total – and former 2nd overall pick Sam Reinhart.

Reinhart really is the key piece of this deal as his upside is massive – as being the 2nd overall pick would entail. He has elite hockey IQ in the sense that he can read and see the ice and the play develop before it happens and has a knack for using his superior skating to always be in the right place at the right time. He isn’t afraid of going to the net, and has disgustingly good hands to deke his way through the D. He is small, fast and has high, high-end skill… like every other prospect the Leafs new regime has targeted. Ultimately the Leafs might be able to ask for Buffalo’s 1st, but considering they just finished dead last in the league… I doubt it.

The Sabres might need Toronto to take a longer term cap hit back in the form of Brian Gionta (2Yrs 4.25M AAV) or Matt Moulson (4Yrs 5M AAV), but as both those players still occupy rather key roles for the Sabres, I doubt that as well. There is the age-old argument of not trading a player inside your own division… After the (minimum) 4 years the Leafs are going to take to be competitive again, Phaneuf will no longer be a factor. In the Sabres view, having to face the talented Reinhart for the next decade plus wearing the Blue and White could be daunting, but they have a black hole on D now that Dion Phaneuf goes a long, long way to fixing.

Is Dion Phaneuf a good fit with the Sabres? Does he even need to go? Is the proposed return big enough? Too big? All these and more are questions that you have the answers too! As always feel free to comment below, or get the conversation going on Twitter. You can follow me @TorrinBatchelor and if nothing else watch Robb and I spar over Brian Burke’s failings. Let’s keep the conversation going during these dog days of summer!

Next: Is Dion Phaneuf Destined To Be A Expansion Draft Casualty?

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