It would be a major accomplishment if the Toronto Maple Leafs won the Atlantic Division this year, but that victory could turn into a fatal mistake.
Want to hear a wild statistic? The Toronto Maple Leafs have only won their division twice since 1938. I know the team hasn't won a Stanley Cup since 1967, but you would have thought they would have more than two division titles in 85 years, right? They've had some great teams throughout the Auston Matthews Era and were really good from 1990-2004, but somehow have only won their division twice.
With roughly 10 games left in the season, the Leafs have a chance to win their division this year, which in theory, is exactly what you want them to do. By winning the division, it would guarantee home-ice advantage in the first two rounds, which we all know is important, but for this team, does it matter?
As it stands, the Leafs are 22-13-1 at home and 20-12-2 on the road this year, so whether they're at home for Game 7 or not, it shouldn't make a huge difference. Obviously, you'd much rather play at home, but the reason why I think winning the division may be a problem this year is not about home-ice advantage, but it's instead about who they would play in the First Round.
Leafs need to avoid Ottawa Senators in first round
If the Leafs win the division, it looks like they would face the Ottawa Senators in the First Round, which is terrifying. The only positive that the Leafs have when it comes to playoff history is their ability to always beat the Senators, but that could drastically change this year.
The Senators are 3-0 against the Leafs in the regular season right now and look scarier than ever. They are a hungry team that hasn't made the playoff in seven years and have a goaltender who's very familar with beating the Leafs in the playoffs.
Linus Ullmark is coming into form right now, and if the Senators beat the Leafs in the playoffs, I think the entire fanbase would explode. It's one thing to lose to Tampa Bay and Florida, who have collectively been to the last five Stanley Cup Finals, but losing to Ottawa would seemingly mean the end to the core-four and cause huge changes.
On paper, the Leafs are still a better team than the Senators, but anything can happen in the playoffs and facing them could be a tougher battle than the Lightning. If you're a Leafs fan, you should want the division to go like this: Florida, Toronto, Tampa Bay, then Ottawa. The Leafs would still gain home-ice advantage, plus they'd get to play the Lightning, who they have had a lot of success with in the past.
Not only did they beat the Lightning in a playoff series two years ago, but they're 3-0 against them in the regular season this year. Tampa Bay felt like a team that would scare Toronto, but they have somehow matched up very well against them, so in a perfect world, the Leafs will probably have more confidence going up against the Lighting then the Senators.
At the end of the day, I guess I'm not going to be upset if the Leafs win the Atlantic Division, but it feels like they may have an easier path to the Stanley Cup Finals if they finished second and avoided the Senators in the First Round.