The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to have a lot of cap space this summer. With the potential departure of Mitch Marner to unrestricted free agency and the most likely outcome of John Tavares's own free agency being a return to Toronto with a substantial pay cut, the Leafs can be in the middle of the action this offseason.
One thing that this team needs to do before training camp starts is re-sign young winger Matthew Knies to a new deal. The pending restricted free agent had a breakout season with 29 goals and 58 points and he is bringing the physicality at the top of the lineup that the Maple Leafs have missed since Zach Hyman left to join the Edmonton Oilers.
So, naturally, we are all expecting the Leafs to look at all of those factors and want to sign Knies to as long as a contract extension as possible. But, should they?
Of course, we all have some fear after all three of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Marner went the short-term contract extensions route until they could cash in on potential unrestricted free agency. It is perfectly understandable to want to avoid that with a potentially very good top-line winger, once again. To go through the talks of contract negotiations once more feels like opening the scar tissue that just freshly healed for the fourth time.
But, they should probably still sign Knies to a short-term bridge deal.
Wait and see what Knies is
We know that Knies had a great season. After his 15-goal, 35-point season last year, to follow that up with almost doubling his goal total and almost reaching the 60-point milestone at 22 years old, is very good. While most players his age are just trying to break into the NHL or hoping that they don't have to see the AHL for another season, he was playing alongside Matthews and Marner, and cashing in on a whole lot of chances.
But, if the Leafs were forward-thinking at all, they should probably want to sign Knies to a short-term deal because of that. With Marner leaving, they have a chance to see if Knies can truly be more of a playdriver than he was. The 22-year-old American winger scored on an insane 19.1 percent of his shots on goal. No one in their right mind would think that is sustainable.
Of course, there were many factors as to why he was able to score at that high of a rate. Playing with two of the best forwards in the league, and the fact that -- and this was possible because he was playing with two players that deserved more defensive attention -- 81 of his 152 shots on goal came from high-danger areas, per NHL Edge.
We're not saying that Knies is a bad player, but just that we've seen this trend happen before. Hyman scored 70 goals in the regular season and the playoffs just last year by being this high-danger threat. He followed that up with 27 goals and just 44 points. Tanner Jeannot was seen as the next big power winger after scoring 24 goals in the 2021-22 season; and now he's heading into free agency after being traded twice and hasn't hit double-digit goals since.
Jeannot is an extreme example, and Knies will almost certainly have a better path, but it is just best to be cautious about these kinds of high-percentage shooters, especially when they are playing with top talent like Knies just did.
It would be best to just sign Knies for two or three years, at a substantially lower cap hit than what he would be earning on a long-term deal. If he continues this same level of play with Marner playing on a different team and as Matthews's primary winger, then he can get the big payday.
But what kind of contract could he get with just a few years of term?
Increases the Leafs' short-term cap flexibility
According to Evolving-Hockey's contract projections, if Knies signed a maximum term deal of eight years, his cap hit is projected to come in around $7.25 million. That would be perfectly reasonable and honestly a little bit of a bargain if he continued to be a potential 30-goal scorer and score over 60 points. But as we pointed out, just one season of doing that next to two elite talents isn't enough evidence for us to believe that.
Those same projections have Knies at a cap hit of $3.9 million on a two-year deal and $4.63 million for three. If we want to go with these numbers, that means that if Knies is locked in for two years, the Maple Leafs would have around $3.35 million more of cap space for those two seasons.
We are just talking a few million dollars, but as we know about this team and how they have operated, we would be praying to have that space at this year's trade deadline. Even to take it a step further, with the 2026 free agency class being as star-studded as it possibly could be right now -- with Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Cale Makar, Kyle Connor, and Kirill Kaprizov leading that group -- if Knies was on that short-term contract, those few millions could mean the difference between signing one of these players or not.
And imagine the sense of regret from this team and angst from this fan base, if Knies is locked in even at around $8 million, and he sees a rapid decline in production. It would be unbearable.
It's not always the most fun thing to play it safe, but this feels like the right time to do that. The Maple Leafs are going to be big players in free agency this summer (and maybe even next) so having some flexibility to get those more high-end players or bet on a couple of high-upside swings on cheap deals, instead of lock in to potential and unknown, is what they should do.