If there’s one thing that Toronto Maple Leafs fans need to keep on their radar, it’s the possibility of further NHL expansion.
No, the league isn’t adding a new team anytime soon. But with the league trending in that direction, there could be some clear implications for Toronto.
The NHL will be adding a 33rd team (or 34th, depending on how you look at it) around 2030. That may still seem like a long time away. However, just about every NHL organization is preparing for it.
In particular, everyone is worried about the NHL expansion draft.
That’s why Maple Leafs fans can’t just shrug their shoulders at the situation.
The next expansion draft could have serious consequences for the organization. A recent piece in The Athletic looked at what would happen if the NHL expansion draft happened in 2027. The results were no bueno. Specifically, the Maple Leafs would have lost Artur Akhtyamov simply because the Leafs would have been unable to protect him.
How so?
The rules state that players with no-movement clauses have to be protected. And guess who has a no-movement clause: Sergei Bobrovsky.
Now, there’s no need to sound the alarms just yet. This was just a thought exercise based on what would have happened today. The real thing will likely happen at some point in 2029 or 2030. By then, the Maple Leafs’ roster could look radically different.
The situation, nonetheless, will point to two things John Chayka will need to keep in mind moving forward.
Maple Leafs Will Need to Be Careful with No-Movement Clauses
As it stands, the Maple Leafs would be forced to protect seven players. Each one has a full no-movement clause. The forwards, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares, seem like locks.
On defense, the Leafs would have to protect Darren Raddysh, Morgan Rielly, and Chris Tanev. Right there, those are the three blueliners the Leafs could protect under the 7-3-1 structure. And it would open the door for Jake McCabe to depart.
By 2029, however, things might differ. So, Matthews is only under contract until 2028. Let’s assume he extends, so that’s one slot. Nylander is under contract till 2032. That’s another slot. Tavares will be a free agent in 2029. That’s actually good because the Leafs could wait until after the NHL expansion draft to re-sign him, assuming he’s still playing at age 38.
Meanwhile, Tanev, Raddysh, and Rielly would all have to be protected. The only other player off the books would be Bobrovsky.
What all of this means is that the Maple Leafs will not likely offer full no-movement clauses to free-agent signings down the line. Unless these are players that the team wants to protect anyway, the organization will be wary of handing out full no-trade and no-movement protection.
Toronto May Have to Work Out Deal Ahead of Time
The Maple Leafs may ultimately have to work out a deal ahead of time. For the 2021 NHL expansion draft, Toronto acquired Jared McCann from the Pittsburgh Penguins for the sole purpose of exposing him in the draft.
Indeed, the Kraken took him, as expected.
That may be something the Leafs will have to do in 2029. It wouldn’t be surprising to see John Chayka set up various pieces that would be more attractive to the future NHL franchise than a current roster player.
It’s unclear whether Chayka had the NHL expansion draft in mind this summer. But it’s very interesting that nine of the team’s current contracts expire in 2028. Assuming the draft happens in 2029, the Leafs and their projected $56 million in cap space could very well feast on the trades that will happen as teams try to set themselves up.
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