It wouldn't be the end of the world if the Toronto Maple Leafs decided to sign goalie Anthony Stolarz to a contract extension. Doing so could spell the end for a potentially crucial competitive advantage over most other Stanley Cup hopefuls, however.
Allowing Stolarz to play out his contract year wouldn't be for the weak of heart, but shouldn't we expect some courage from teams participating in one of the most dangerous sports on the planet?
Contract year motivation: greed can be good for Stolarz, Leafs
Truth be told, it's difficult to measure the impact of a contract year in scientific terms. From a human nature standpoint, Stolarz would carry a metric ton of motivation into a potential contract year.
CapWages estimates the 31-year-old's career earnings at a hair less than $10 million, so this is the window for him to make life-changing money. Both Joseph Woll and Dennis Hildeby being signed through the 2027-28 season could add yet another layer of motivation, particularly if Stolarz badly wants to stay in Toronto. That pressure could create diamonds in the Leafs' net.
No doubt about it, another elite Stolarz season would drive his price up through the roof, possibly pushing him out of Toronto. Considering how old much of this Leafs roster is, and the ticking time bomb that is Auston Matthews only being under contract for three seasons, the rewards outweigh the risks.
Still plenty to prove
On the subject of risks, this would be a dangerous time to sign Stolarz.
While the New Jersey native boasts a respectable 142 games of NHL experience, he set a career-high with a mere 34 games played last season. Due to that bit of "accidental on purpose" contact from Sam Bennett, the towering netminder was limited to just seven playoff games. That covers the entirety of his playoff experience, aside from 35 minutes of mop-up duty for Florida in 2023-24.
The postseason serves as a crucible for goalies, as teams drill down to the nitty gritty of their strengths and weaknesses. At the moment, his playoff grade hovers around an incomplete.
It's possible that Stolarz is truly the goalie observers witnessed in small, often-impressive sample sizes, but why sign him when he could be at an unsustainable peak? It's akin to inking a sniper riding off a season after they scored on 30-percent of their shots.
A potential salary cap advantage over the likes of Panthers, Lightning
Fans can argue about how much the Florida tax advantage swings things in favor of the Panthers and Lightning, but there's no denying that it's a weapon wielded brilliantly by each front office.
During the 2024-25 season, Stolarz generated incredible value at his $2.5 million cap hit. Consider his impressive wins above replacement and goals saved above average numbers among the Atlantic Division's big-money netminders.
2024-25 season | Cap hit | WAR | GSAA |
|---|---|---|---|
Anthony Stolarz | $2.5M | 6.1 | 24.6 |
Andrei Vasilevskiy | $9.5M | 5.8 | 35.8 |
Sergei Bobrovsky | $10M | 3 | 7.7 |
Linus Ullmark | $8.25M | 2 | 11.1 |
Jeremy Swayman | $8.25M | 0.7 | -12.6 |
Aside from a rough 2023-24 season, the Maple Leafs boast a recent history of getting great goalie value without paying top dollar. Here's the catch: they rarely received top-notch work from the same person. Jack Campbell and Ilya Samsonov both experienced dramatic highs and drastic lows, so credit Toronto for letting them walk instead of dealing with their most extreme pitfalls.
With a position this volatile yet vital, you're bound to take some risks. The Maple Leafs might as well buy themselves as much time to make the best decision possible.