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Why Auston Matthews' next contract could change direction for the Maple Leafs

What the team chooses to do with their star captain will have a ripple effect for years to come.
Mar 12, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) looks up at the scoreboard after scoring against the Anaheim Ducks during the second period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Mar 12, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews (34) looks up at the scoreboard after scoring against the Anaheim Ducks during the second period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Toronto Maple Leafs superstar Auston Matthews has two years left on his current deal. At the end of it, he'll be 30 and ready for a big payday.

Whether the team can reach an agreement on an extension early or not will affect the overall outlook on the team and its direction at large. Per the NHL's collective bargaining agreement, the Maple Leafs can't offer an extension to Matthews until July 1 of 2027. Still, one has to imagine negotiations have already begun. After all, it's the franchise center and captain we're talking about here.

Some already believe Matthews will hit free agency as soon as the 2027-28 offseason.

No matter what decision he makes, the direction the Maple Leafs choose to take from here hinges entirely on what Matthews decides to do with his next contract.

Maple Leafs need long-term deal for Matthews

If the Maple Leafs are serious about trying to contend with this core, they need to extend Matthews for as long (and as much) as they possibly can. He'll be up for his extension a year before first overall pick Gavin McKenna and comes in just as contracts for Colton Sissons, Jack Roslovic, Dakota Joshua and Max Domi come to an end, giving the team more than enough money to make it happen.

If they can guarantee Matthews sticks around for the long run, general manager John Chayka can refocus his efforts on bolstering the rest of the lineup. The only other major extension he'll have to worry about is McKenna's, which comes in a year after Matthews' current deal runs out.

The biggest question, however, centers around term.

Will Matthews take a Connor McDavid-esque deal and sign for only a couple seasons, or will he stick around for the long haul?

What happens if he decides to leave?

Franchise direction revolves around Matthews

What the Maple Leafs and Matthews decide to do from here will have a ripple effect for the next decade -- if not more. If Matthews chooses to stick around, Toronto will have more clarity on the direction of the franchise and focus on competing now. If he opts out, the team will likely go through a shaky few years before settling in on a new direction. If the former happens, expect Matthews to stay as the team's leader.

If the latter occurs and Matthews decides to move on, it'll be Gavin McKenna's team from that point on.

The good news is that, should the worst situation occur, the team already has a succession plan in place. They can weather the storm for a few tough seasons and acquire young talent for the future. But is that truly what fans and leadership want?

The world of Toronto revolves around Auston Matthews and the decision he needs to make.

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