It has been no secret that Auston Matthews has struggled over the past year and a half. His goal production has dipped, and his metrics show he is declining. This year, with the Maple Leafs, Matthews has 13 goals in 26 games, a number that is good but not elite. Auston Matthews has improved on the defensive side of the puck, a game Craig Berube wants Matthews to play, but until he can carry the offence, those numbers won't change.
Auston Matthews was known for the better part of the late 2010s to early 2020s as the best goal scorer in the NHL. He produced over 60 goals twice, including a 69-goal season back in 2023-24. In just over 655 career NHL games, the Arizona native has scored 414 goals, a number that shows he is on pace to be one of the greatest goal scorers of all time. But with the declining numbers, can he keep on that pace and reach NHL legendary status? What we do know is that Matthews will go down as the greatest Leaf of all time. He will surpass Mats Sundin in goals this season and over the course of the next 2-3 years, be the leader in points.
What has caused this change in production
Many fans are constantly wondering where the old Auston Matthews is and if he is out of his prime. Matthews situation feels weird, as I don't think he is out of his prime, but I also don't think he's the player he used to be. Injuries have affected Auston Matthews over the past few seasons, dating back to last season when he travelled to Germany for an injury labelled day-to-day. When he arrived back in Toronto, he just never looked the same. He scored at a lower rate, and the shot seemed less dangerous. At the end of the season, Matthews admitted to struggling with injury over the course of the season. At the start of training camp, Matthews believed he was 100% healthy and ready to be the player he used to be. Expectations were high, but never reached. It is evident that Matthews hasn't been the same player; he seemingly lost the ability to take over games.
The injuries have played a huge part in his goal scoring and advanced metrics, but I believe there is more to the story. When MLSE decided to make Auston Matthews captain, it changed the way fans and the Leafs viewed him. MLSE may have made a decision that would benefit them and not the team. When fans look at jerseys across the league, they want to buy the jersey of the player who is the captain, the leader of the team. Matthews has been the face of the franchise since he got drafted to the team in 2016-17. MLSE found a golden opportunity to switch the captaincy to benefit from the profit on Auston Matthews. They switched it during the time of the next head coach, Craig Berube, trying to signal a wave of change within the organization, but it was not the smart decision. They branded John Tavares as helping decide to pass on the captaincy, but I don't believe that is truly how it went. Keith Pelley wanted to make his mark on the organization and look like the man ready to lead an NHL team.
Many could argue that Matthews was ready to be the next captain of the Maple Leafs, but I would say otherwise. Matthews is a skilled forward who relished on scoring goals. He was forced to become the leader of the team, a position in which John Tavares had done great. Instead of being the guy who puts the puck in the net, he was forced to lead by example and play the way Craig Berube wants the team to play. That could have been a role that worked better with Tavares. Tavares is a reliable centre who wins faceoffs and can be trusted against other teams' best players. Craig Berube and MLSE forced Matthews to be a more complete defensive player. While that is great that he is reliable on the defensive side of the puck, he is not used to how he used to be. He does not play like the player who scored 69 goals just two seasons ago.
Is Matthews still an elite goal scorer?
Auston Matthews is still an elite goal scorer. He is still on pace for over 35 goals this season, without Matthews hitting his stride yet. If the Maple Leafs start using Matthews more smartly, we could very well see the return of the Auston Matthews we are accustomed to seeing.