The Toronto Maple Leafs are earning points in the standings, but truly, how good are they? Well, we may not find the answer until all 82 games are played, but thanks to a hockey analytics website releasing some data Monday morning, we can possibly find out who is performing the best on this team so far.
Evolving-Hockey is a wonderful website to dive into the depths of hockey analytics and really get into the nitty gritty of a player's impact, if you choose to do so. With shot charts, on-ice statistics, individual numbers, and all the rest; it's become one of the main hubs for those interested in doing that.
On Monday morning, they released their Goals Above Replacement data for the 2025-26 NHL season. Now that we're a few weeks into the season, there's been enough of a sample size to at least have somewhat normal-looking numbers for this specific metric. It's no use trying to explain what this metric means in our own words, so we'll take it right from the source.
"Goals Above Replacement (GAR, WAR, and SPAR) is a metric that attempts to assign a total value to each player, which represents how much that player contributed to their team in a single number. This single number is comprised of multiple components that are ratings for each area of play within a given sport," says Evolving-Hockey.com.
Basically it is an attempt at quantifying a player's total contribution to winning hockey games.
So, who has been the best Maple Leaf at doing that? We have some surprises and some expected players.
Player | GAR | WAR | SPAR |
|---|---|---|---|
Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 3.7 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
William Nylander | 2.9 | 0.5 | 1 |
Brandon Carlo | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
Easton Cowan | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
John Tavares | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
Well there you have it. According to the Goals Above Replacement metric (and the other single-number quantifiers), the player that has contributed the most to winning for the Leafs this season has been defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Him alone, the Leafs can thank for more than a whole point in the standings. And it somewhat makes sense -- points aren't everything but the veteran blueliner has started this season with seven points in just nine games.
William Nylander being one of the Leafs' best players is nothing new, and then add Brandon Carlo's all-around impact and it's likely candidates to be near the top of the list. Maybe the most surprising name is rookie Easton Cowan, who has earned this 2.6 GAR total in just six games, while others have played eight or nine.
Outside of this top five, Matthew Knies, Morgan Rielly, and Simon Benoit round out the list of Maple Leafs who have at least 1.0 GAR through the start of this season. And that means a certain someone wearing a letter is not.
We'll have to see how the rest of this season plays out, but the Leafs are getting key contributions from likely and unlikely sources.