Mitch Marner got off to a great start in the 4 Nations Face-Off and scored the winning goal in Team Canada's first game, Wednesday night against Team Sweden.
One storyline that Maple Leafs fans are going to care the most about during the 4 Nations is the play of Mitch Marner, who has a reputation (mostly unfair) for shrinking during big games, and who is a pending unrestricted free-agent.
On July 1st, Marner becomes a free agent looking for a contract that is rumored to be close to the $13.25 million Auston Matthews is currently making.
What will be intriguing to watch is if Marner can have a strong enough tournament to overcome some of the narratives about his big-game performances and build some momentum for a Leafs playoff run.
What the 4 Nations Tournament Means for Mitch Marner
If you’ve followed Marner’s playoff performances over the past couple of seasons, you know what it’s like. Yes, he does lead all core four Maple Leafs in playoff points, and yes his overall numbers are pretty good, but the Leafs haven't been able to win more than a single playoff series during the eight years Marner has been on the team.
During last year’s first-round matchup against the Boston Bruins, Marner found himself returning from a high-ankle sprain early and playing well below 100%, but was still healthier than Matthews or Nylander who were both hurt/sick. All eyes were on Marner to produce in the absence of Matthews and Nylander, but he put up a measly three points in that seven-game series against Boston.
It was the same story with Marner in the playoffs; when the bright lights come on, he doesn’t play like the free-skating, game-breaking playmaker he has been for the Leafs, which is probably one of the reasons why Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving may be hesitant on offering an in-season extension to Marner.
Then again, how many consistent 100 point players* do you know that also provide elite defense and penalty killing? (*He's been on pace for 100 points in the last 5 seasons, though he has missed enough games in each season that it hasn't happened for him yet).
It will be interesting to watch Marner during this four-nations tournament to see what kind of production he brings to that star-studded lineup. During Team Canada’s first couple of skates, and in the first game, we saw Marner on the top line centered by McDavid and Sam Reinhart.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if Marner flourishes beside these two, but it will be interesting to see if Marner can deliver if the going gets tough for Canada’s top players. If Marner can’t deliver in key moments when Team Canada needs him, how could we expect him to deliver on this Leaf's roster? This may be the litmus test that Marner needs to prove if he wants to stay in Toronto and get paid like his teammates who deliver in key moments.
I expect the Leafs to get Marner re-signed, and I expect his cap hit to be under $13 million a season. The Leafs are expected to have around $30.5 million this off-season. With Marner coming in at under half of that amount, the Leafs will have more than enough to re-sign Tavares, Knies, and have enough left over to make upgrades where needed.