Matthew Knies and Anthony Stolarz are two big surprises to start the 2024-25 season, but the Toronto Maple Leafs shouldn't look to re-sign them anytime soon.
The Toronto Maple Leafs love to re-sign a player nice and early when they have no business at doing so. Whether it was Jake McCabe or Bobby McMann, the team jumped on a contract, for reasons I don't understand.
Knies and Stolarz are having great starts to the season and are two of the most important players thus far. Knies is second on the Leafs in goals scored, while Stolarz is top-five in the NHL in both save percentage and goals against.
We've seen this story before when it comes to Leafs goaltenders. Jack Campbell, Joseph Woll, Matt Murray and Ilya Samsonov have all had weeks or month stretches over their tenure with the Leafs, proving their worth. However, it's never lasted a full season. Fortunately for the Leafs, they never gave any of those players long-term deals, most notably walking away from a five-year, $25M deal that Campbell received from the Edmonton Oilers.
Stolarz is under contract until 2026, so I don't think the Leafs will rush to re-sign him right now, but it wouldn't shock me. However, the one contract I do think they may make a big mistake at is Knies.
As previously mentioned, Knies is having a fantastic year, and is on pace for 40 goals. He's elevated his game since his first season playing alongside Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews and is a perfect complement to those two. He's a hard worker, who always finds the right spot in front of the net and is really excelling.
The Toronto Maple Leafs shouldn't re-sign Knies or Stolarz quite yet
However, haven't we seen this narrative before? Zach Hyman and Michael Bunting are two examples of players who benefited by playing with Marner and Matthews. Hyman has shown that his time with the Leafs wasn't a fluke, but he's also doing it alongside Connor McDavid every night, so maybe it's the players he's playing with and not the player?
When Hyman left the Leafs, he signed a $5.5M AAV deal, which was too rich for the Leafs. As for Bunting, he signed for $4.5M AAV, which was also too expense for the blue-and-white.
On TSN's Overdrive, analyst Craig Button said that he'd sign Knies to a $7M AAV x seven year deal right now and wouldn't think twice. As much as I'd love to see Knies with the Leafs long-term, this contract would be insane and is something the team can't afford to do, even with the salary cap rising.
As shown over the past seven years, Matthews and Marner can elevate any winger they play with and the team doesn't suffer. Hyman, Bunting and now Knies are three players who are getting rich off those two players and if they plan on re-signing Marner, they have to find another cheap winger to play alongside them.
Within the current system, Easton Cowan, Bobby McMann or even Max Pacioretty can be cheap options alongside Marner and Matthews, but even if none of those players fit, there are a lot of hard-working replacement players who can rack up 20 goals on their wing.
Although I'd love to see Knies and Stolarz on the roster long-term, if they continue to play this well, but the organization shouldn't rush to re-sign them quite yet and should wait until the offseason to make a decision.