Connor McDavid is an unrestricted free agent next summer, so instead of wasting their money this offseason, the Toronto Maple Leafs should save all of their cash for 2026.
It's quite possible that Connor McDavid wins a Stanley Cup with the Edmonton Oilers this season, then signs an eight-year extension this offseason to make this scenario impossible, but a boy can dream, can't he? Landing McDavid would be the biggest move in the history of the franchise, making the John Tavares signing look like a PTO signing.
McDavid, along with many other incredible free agents (look at this crazy list here), is set to become a UFA in 2026 and although every team in the NHL would love to sign him, there are realistically only a few teams in the NHL that he would sign with. Not to discredit the rest of the NHL, but the Leafs should be high on McDavid's list, as he could finally come back home and play for his hometown team.
When McDavid was originally drafted, the Leafs had a small percentage at landing McDavid in the NHL Lottery, and by his reaction here, it felt like he would have preferred Toronto over Edmonton in the first place. Obviously, it seems more likely that McDavid would want to stay with one franchise for his entire life, but the new landscape of sports sees franchise superstars leave their respective cities more than they stay, so it's possible.
Leafs need to save money for July 1, 2026
Signing McDavid is obviously a pipedream and something that is unlikely, but even if Edmonton re-signs him on July 1, the Leafs should still keep some salary in their back pocket for the summer of 2026. Auston Matthews and William Nylander will still be big pieces of this team in 2026-27, so they're still going to be in their Stanley Cup window and could really go "all-in" that season if they could land a few big fish.
Within that free agency class besides McDavid, Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Jack Eichel, Kirill Kaprizov, Cale Makar, Jason Robertson and Kyle Connor are just a handful of names to note. Instead of signing a few big names to long-term contracts in 2025, the Leafs could sign players to higher AAV one-year deals, giving themselves flexibility in summer, 2026.
For example, Jamie Benn could be someone that could fetch a three-year deal at $6M AAV, but could be willing to sign in Toronto on a one-year deal at $8M instead this offseason. The salary cap is rising next year, but is expanding much more in 2026, then in 2027, so players could be incentized to sign one year deals, knowing that they could end up making more the summer later when the cap rises.
As a result, even if the Leafs can't land McDavid, they could sign one of Robertson, Eichel, Makar, Connor or Kaprizov for example and it would bolt this team back towards a Stanley Cup favorite.
McDavid is probably going to retire with the Oilers, but maybe things go sideways and he wants a change because if he decided to join the Leafs, I promise there will be no fans throwing jerseys on the ice during a Game 7.