The Toronto Maple Leafs upcoming game against the Florida Panthers is the first of three meetings between the rivals that will be critical in deciding the season-long fight for the Atlantic Division title and a top-two seed in the Eastern Conference.
The results of those three games are the most important factor in determining the order of Toronto, Florida, and the resurgent Tampa Bay Lightning within the division. The Panthers and Lightning also face each other one more time before the regular season concludes.
The Leafs and defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers have alternated between first and second place to this point in the season, but a recent surge has allowed the Lightning to enter the conversation for the top spot in the division.
With less than 20 games remaining in the NHL regular season, sorting out the top three places in the Atlantic will make for fascinating theater. Five points separated the Panthers, Leafs, and Lightning as of Wednesday morning. So which team has the edge as the 2024-2025 regular season winds down?
A Look ahead at the Toronto Maple Leafs remaining schedule
A breakdown of each team's remaining schedule reveals that the Maple Leafs have the most difficult path to a first-place finish. A loss at home on Thursday against the Panthers and the task becomes more arduous.
After the Leafs unconvincing, shootout victory over Utah concluded a three-game road trip, Toronto has 18 games remaining on the schedule (nine home, nine away). Ten of those games are against teams currently in a playoff position. The Maple Leafs have an additional three games against teams (the New York Rangers, Detroit Red Wings, and Montreal Canadiens) still in contention for a wild card spot.
Of the eighteen games left on the schedule, five are against teams (San Jose Sharks, Nashville Predators, Anaheim Ducks, Buffalo Sabres, Philadelphia Flyers) playing out the string.
Seven of the Maple Leafs remaining games are against elite competition (current top-three in their division). Those include the aforementioned Panthers (three games) plus one game each versus the Colorado Avalanche, Los Angeles Kings, and Carolina Hurricanes.
Of the Panthers remaining 17 games (seven at home, ten on the road), seven are against teams currently in the playoffs. Five are against teams on the playoff bubble (Canadiens twice, Red Wings twice, Rangers once). Florida has three games against out-of-contention teams (Islanders, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Sabres). Five of the Panthers seventeen games are against top teams such as the Leafs (three), Lightning, and Washington Capitals.
The Lightning has the easiest remaining schedule of the three Atlantic Division contenders. Like the Leafs, they have 18 remaining games (nine home, nine away), but only five are against current playoff teams. Tampa Bay has six games against teams on the playoff bubble (Rangers twice, Utah twice, Red Wings and Boston Bruins once). Among the elite teams, the Lightning face off against the Leafs and Panthers once plus one game each versus the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights. The Lightning has seven games left against also-rans (Flyers twice, Sabres twice, Islanders twice, and Penguins once).
The schedule breakdown is not kind to the Maple Leafs. They have the toughest remaining schedule. The Lightning has the easiest, with the Panthers in the middle.
Injuries and Trade Deadline additions will also play a role in division Ooutcome
Injuries, health, goaltending and the adjustment of trade deadline additions will also play an important role in determining the division winner.
Florida's Matthew Tkachuk is out for the rest of the regular season. Trade deadline addition, Brad Marchand, has yet to make his debut in a Panthers uniform. Aaron Ekblad recently received a twenty-game ban from the NHL.
The Leafs most important defenseman, Chris Tanev, has yet to return to the lineup. Toronto has been a defensive mess since his absence.
Trade deadline additions Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton are still acclimating themselves to the Maple Leafs lineup. Oliver Bjorkstand and Yanni Gourde are doing the same thing with the Lightning. Nikita Kucherov left the Lightning's most recent game before the third period.
The head-to-head matchups between the Leafs and Panthers will have the greatest impact in deciding a division winner. The other two divisional games (Leafs-Lightning, and Panthers-Lightning) will also figure prominently.
The Toronto Maple Leafs path to the Atlantic Division title and a top-two playoff seed starts by winning games against their two main rivals for the top spot. If they don't, their difficult schedule compared to their counterparts ensures another grueling playoff schedule awaits.