The Toronto Maple Leafs must win the Atlantic Division if they are to have any serious chances of making a strong playoff run.
Allow me to expand on this thought by discussing military strategy.
When there are three equally strong opponents, opponents that can easily annihilate one another, the smartest of the three opponents must try to get the two others to fight each other. Naturally, one opponent is destroyed. The victory could be weakened so severely, that the third opponent would have a much easier time defeating them.
In this year’s Atlantic Division, there are three equally strong opponents: The Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers, and Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs could annihilate the Panthers or Lightning in the first round.
But the thought of defeating the Lightning in one round AND the Panthers in the second round is preposterous. Even if they did, the Leafs could be so weakened, that by the time they reach the Conference Final, they may have nothing left in the tank.
That’s why the Leafs must win the Atlantic Division in order to play the second wild card team. As it stands, that team would be the New York Rangers. While the Rangers are no pushovers, the Leafs would essentially get Tampa and Florida to annihilate each other in the first round.
Even if the Leafs dropped to the first wild card, they would still face the Panthers in the first round. So, the Leafs need to make a push to take over the Atlantic lead to avoid a costly showdown with both the Panthers and Lightning.
Otherwise, Leafs Nation could be looking at another early playoff exit.
Toronto Maple Leafs would face Tampa Bay Lightning if season ended today
The Toronto Maple Leafs would face the Tampa Bay Lightning if the season ended today. Now, there is a silver lining in the possibility of the Leafs facing the Bolts in the first round. This season, the Leafs have won all three matchups by nearly identical scores.
Toronto took the first meeting on October 21, 2024 5-2, the 5-3 on November 30, and 5-3 on January 20, 2025. The two teams still have one more game to play this season. They’ll clash on April 9 at Amalie Arena in Tampa.
While the numbers seem encouraging, they’re ultimately meaningless. The clock resets during the playoffs, meaning that the Leafs could sweep the regular season series, and it wouldn’t matter one bit as the Bolts could sweep the Leafs in the first round.
The point here is that the Leafs have had the Bolts’ number this season. That’s a good starting point. However, the prospect of potentially playing both Florida and Tampa is a gauntlet the Leafs would do well to avoid.
Now, I will say one thing: Supposing the Leafs bounced Florida and Tampa in the first two rounds, doing so would give the Leafs massive street cred. If that path leads to the Stanley Cup, such a Leafs team could go down as one of the all-time greats. We shall see.