Sitting at 71 points, Toronto is just four points clear of the NHL’s bottom five. In most seasons, that position lands somewhere between disappointment and reluctant acceptance, a finish that likely yields a top-10 pick and a reset for next year.
But this isn’t most years.
Everything is complicated by the top-five protection clause tied to Toronto’s first-round pick, now owned by the Boston Bruins following last year’s Brandon Carlo trade. Because of that condition, the Leafs aren’t debating whether to tank.
They simply don’t have a choice.
And this week’s schedule only raises the stakes.
Maple Leafs can decide their fate with this week
Matchups against the Bruins, the St. Louis Blues, and the New York Rangers will define the direction of the season. The games against St. Louis and New York, in particular, carry massive implications. Both teams sit below Toronto in the standings, the Blues at 67 points, the Rangers at 65.
If the Leafs are serious about keeping their first round pick, as odd as it may be to say, those are must lose games.
Still, there’s a nightmare scenario lurking in the back of everyone’s mind.
For true security, the Leafs likely need to finish third last. Anything higher leaves the door open for disaster on draft lottery day.
Finish fifth-last, and all it takes is one team jumping the order. Suddenly, the Boston Bruins are holding the sixth overall pick, where a top-five talent might slip. A player like Chase Reid or even Keaton Verhoeff could suddenly fall right into Boston’s lap.
There’s no guarantee the lottery balls bounce in Toronto’s favour. But from a purely strategic standpoint, committing to the tank is the logical move and this week is pivotal to executing it properly.
So, as painful as it may be, there’s a silver lining.
Short-term pain can lead to long-term gain.
Just look at teams like the Tampa Bay Lightning or the Colorado Avalanche. Even elite organizations sometimes need a down year to reset the trajectory of the franchise. Where would Colorado be today without Cale Makar?
This draft could finally be the moment the Leafs land a true number-one defenceman, something the organization has lacked for decades and arguably the missing piece between them and becoming legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.
Or the tank fails and Boston walks away with the pick.
But that’s a darker conversation for another day.