The Toronto Maple Leafs special teams are not good enough to win the Stanley Cup
Do the Toronto Maple Leafs need to worry about the current state of their special teams?
For the past few seasons, the Toronto Maple Leafs have seen their power play and penalty kill rankings gradually decline. More notably, their power play success rate has plummeted to worrisome levels to start the 2024-25 NHL campaign.
There’s no doubt that what had used to be the strength of the Toronto Maple Leafs has now become a prominent weakness.
So how much of an effect will this have on their success going forward? Are special teams really that important when it comes to winning the Stanley Cup?
To answer that question, let’s take a look back at the most recent Stanley Cup champions and whether or not special teams played any crucial role in their success.
How important are special teams to the Toronto Maple Leafs chances?
The following table lists the special teams rankings and their success rate during the regular season for the past eight Stanley Cup champions.
Regular Season - Year and Team | Power Play Ranking | Penalty Kill Ranking |
|---|---|---|
2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins | 3rd - 23.1% | 20th - 79.8% |
2017-18 Washington Capitals | 7th - 22.5% | 15th - 80.3% |
2018-19 St. Louis Blues | 10th - 21.1% | 9th - 81.5% |
2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning | 5th - 23.1% | 14th - 81.4% |
2020-21 Tampa Bay Lightning | 9th - 22.2% | 4th - 84.2% |
2021-22 Colorado Avalanche | 7th - 24.0% | 15th - 79.7% |
2022-23 Vegas Golden Knights | 18th - 20.3% | 19th - 77.4% |
2023-24 Florida Panthers | 8th - 23.5% | 6th - 82.5% |
From the stats, other than the 2020-21 Tampa Bay Lightning and last year’s Florida Panthers, the bulk of the group did not necessarily need to have both a strong power play and penalty kill at the same time to be successful.
In fact, the Vegas Golden Knights proved that you could have a special teams ranked in the bottom half of the league during the regular season and still manage to capture the Stanley Cup. But taking that huge outlier aside, the general trend that could be seen is that you could have a penalty kill with varying success, but the power play must be ranked within the top 10 in the league with at least a 21% success rate to have a chance to become the top winners in the NHL.
Furthermore, if breaking it down to their rankings and success rate during the playoffs, with 16 teams in contention each season aside from the COVID play-in format which had 24 teams in total, we have the following:
Playoffs - Year and Team | Power Play Ranking | Penalty Kill Ranking |
|---|---|---|
2017 Pittsburgh Penguins | 5th - 20.5% | 9th - 83.6% |
2018 Washington Capitals | 2nd - 29.3% | 10th - 76% |
2019 St. Louis Blues | 12th - 16.3% | 12th - 75.4% |
2020 Tampa Bay Lightning | 5th - 22.7% | 5th - 86.0% |
2021 Tampa Bay Lightning | 3rd - 32.4% | 4th - 84.1% |
2022 Colorado Avalanche | 1st - 32.8% | 7th - 80.4% |
2023 Vegas Golden Knights | 8th - 21.9% | 12th - 71.7% |
2024 Florida Panthers | 11th - 18.5% | 2nd - 88.0% |
In this case, the 2018-19 St. Louis Blues now become outliers, capturing the Cup despite having the fifth worst special teams among the playoff contenders. But taking a look at the common trend found among the other seven champions, once again, most of them were powered by a strong power play to help lead them to victory. Another key aspect worth noting was also the fact that four of the past five winners also happened to have a strong penalty kill as well to complement their power play come playoff time. (All stats from NHL.com)
So going back to the most critical question, do the Maple Leafs need their special teams to be successful down the road and in the playoffs?
Based on the above observations, unless they manage to be like the outlier teams above, the answer is an absolute yes. In fact, the most worrisome trend seen is that the eventual Stanley Cup champion in the past eight seasons boasts an elite power play for the most part, both in the regular season and playoffs.
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As of right now, the Leafs currently rank second-last in the league at 8.8% with the man advantage. So it looks like a lot of work needs to be done if they indeed want to be serious contenders come playoff time. Otherwise, if the crucial problem is not resolved soon, it could be another long season and an early playoff exit for the Leafs once again.