I feel like I say this every year in December, but the Toronto Maple Leafs should be considered Stanley Cup favorites right now.
Though Sheldon Keefe and Kyle Dubas didn't get nearly enough credit for how good the Toronto Maple Leafs were defensively the last couple of years, the current group is one of the NHL's best defensive teams.
24 games into the season and there's no denying that the Chris Tanev signing was the best of the offseason. Prior to joining the organization, I understood that his game wasn't flashy and all he did was block shots, but that couldn't have been more undersold.
Every single night, there seems to be a shot that he blocks that I just yell "Ouch!" at, but he seemingly dusts himself off after every block and goes about his day. There have been a few scares throughout the year, but whatever he's doing, he needs to keep it up for the playoffs because that's where he's going to be the most valuable.
The Toronto Maple Leafs should be Stanley Cup Favorites right now
TSN's Travis Yost wrote an interesting article about the Leafs defensive play this year and his stats back up everything I've been watching. There is no doubt that Toronto's defense is much more improved this year and the biggest thing that jumps out is the following:
"No team in the NHL conceded fewer goals at even strength in November than the (Leafs). In all situations, Toronto finished second in goals conceded (just 2.2 goals against per 60 minutes played), missing the top spot by mere rounding error to the Minnesota Wild." (Travis Yost - TSN.ca)
Toronto was averaging around 2.5 goals per 60 minutes at even strength, which was among the NHL's average, over the past eight seasons, but this year, that number is down by a third, which is staggering. As much as we can praise the defensive system of Craig Berube, it's coming with a cost that isn't being acknowledged right now because of how good the goalies are playing.
Though critics kept trying to point out that 5-4 wins will not translate in the playoffs, the Leafs never really played like that after they fired Mike Babcock. Sheldon Keefe coached a nicely balanced game, but playoff success eluded him. Perhaps the key to success is the stifling Berube-style game the Leafs are playing - certainly it fits the cliched hockey thinking of what a "playoff team" should look like.
We should praise Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll for their high-level play thus far as well, and they are obviously going to benefit from the team's defensive play, but goalie performance and team defensive play aren't as closely linked as you would assume. Team's need offense, defense and goaltending. As long as the Leafs get anything close to what they are getting from their goalies, they are going to succeed.
If they combine that goaltending with the shut-down game they have displayed so far, and Auston Matthews adds in his usual ability to dominate 5v5 (which they haven't really had this year) then the Leafs are easily the top team in the league.
You don't need an Andrei Vasilevskiy type of performance every night to win in the playoffs, but with the Leafs defense and the Matthews Factor, they don't need it. The defense is obviously real. If the and Matthews comes alive, this team will be unstoppable - and it won't get markedly worse when the regression inevitably comes for their goalies.
The Toronto Maple Leafs look unbelievable thus far and if they can continue this defense-first mentality, while mixing in high-level scoring up front, this could finally be the year that curse is broken.