In their most recent game against the Winnipeg Jets, the Toronto Maple Leafs trailed 2-0 after the first period but received promising news from the out-of-town scoreboard. Division rivals the Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning, Detroit Red Wings, and the Ottawa Senators were all behind in their respective games.
If the Maple Leafs could find a way to complete a comeback, it was possible some ground could be made up in their chase for a playoff spot. Toronto did its part, clawing back to defeat the Jets, but their division counterparts didn't cooperate.
Only the Red Wings went on to lose their game, but earned a point by taking it to overtime against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Canadiens, Lightning, and Senators all secured victories.
The evening's results highlighted the biggest impediment to the Leafs earning a playoff spot. When you are chasing from behind the pack, it is hard to make up ground, especially in an era of parity and three-point games.
Leafs Have Left Themselves No Room for Error
Thanks to a five-game points streak, four of them wins, the Maple Leafs have increased their odds of making the playoffs to 15.9%. Slumbering through most of the first half of the season has left them with a lot of work to do.
On December 1, after twenty-five games, the Leafs were 11-11-3 and last in the Eastern Conference. The Buffalo Sabres (26 points) and Florida Panthers (25 points in one less game) were closest to them in the standings. With so many teams clumped together, there remained hope of reaching loftier heights.
Since then, the Sabres, Panthers, and Leafs have all made an upward move. Buffalo is riding a ten-game winning streak, while Florida has gone 6-3-1 over its last ten games, and Toronto has looked much better over its five-game streak, earning nine of ten available points.
Despite the improvement, none should feel comfortable with their lot. The Sabres currently hold the last wild-card spot, one point ahead of the Panthers, two points clear of the Maple Leafs. The conference basement is occupied by the Columbus Blue Jackets with 40 points.
Only four teams (Carolina Hurricanes, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Montreal) have more than 50 points. The other twelve teams in the East fall between 40 and 48 points.
For the Maple Leafs, the heating up of Auston Matthews and the imminent return of William Nylander bode well for continuing to climb the standings, but they have no room for error. A regulation losing streak of three to four games would be a severe blow to their postseason chances as the second half of the season begins and the number of games on the schedule dwindles.
With the standings as tightly packed as they are, the Maple Leafs have little margin for error as they try to extend the NHL's longest active playoff streak.
Recent strong play has at least brought them back into the conversation, but in a conference where multiple teams are jockeying for the same few spots, anything less than that pace will quickly erase their hopes. If Toronto is going to keep its streak alive, continuing to play at its current level isn't optional; it's the minimum requirement.