The Toronto Maple Leafs have lost three in a row, and the gatekeepers have spoken: They are in first place, so no booing please!
In my opinion, the booing is warranted - this is a team with four superstars and three franchise players. The Toronto Maple Leafs were on the verge of something special when they pivoted to try to be more like a traditional hockey team, and then they went all-in on that ill-advised thinking when they hired Craig Berube.
Under Berube, the Leafs have asked Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner to curb their creativity and play dump and chase hockey. The analytics show that puck-possession is the key to long-term success, but ironicaly, since the Leafs didn't get immediate success while doing things the right way, they have reverted to an old-school approach based, apparently, on vibes.
It could still work - hockey is a luck based game at the pro level, and any team that has Matthews and Marner and then gets hot goaltending can look unbeatable for a long time - just look at the Leafs for the first 2 and a half months of this season. (all stats naturalstattrick.com).
The Shocking and Surprising Decline of the Toronto Maple Leafs
The Toronto Maple Leafs are in first place in the Atlantic Division as I write this, but the following information is alarming and indicitive of a decline that seems to have already started.
Obviously, Matthews hasn't played much, Anthony Stolarz has been out of the lineup, and recently Jake McCabe has been injured as well, so take the following information with a grain of salt maybe. But also, keep in mind that even with all three playing at a high level, it wouldn't equal what being first in the NHL in goaltending provided.
The Leafs were in 5th place overall in the NHL on December 13th, and they were also in first place in 5v5 save-percentage. The Leafs were papering over a lot of their issues by getting elite goaltending.
Since December 14th, the Leafs are 27th in 5v5 goaltending and are 17th overall, which isn't even a playoff spot. This INCLUDES a five-game winning streak. During their run of 17th overall hockey, the Leafs have beaten Philadelphia twice, Buffalo, Detroit, the Islanders twice but their record against good teams is just 2-5.
For perspective, check this out: Connor Hellebuyck would win the Vezina unanimously if voting were held today, and he'd likely also win the Hart Trophy as the NHL's MVP. But, up until a month ago, the Leafs, as a team, were getting better goaltending from their tandem than Hellebuyck was providing.
Essentially, with 2.5 months of Hart Trophy goaltending, the Leafs were fifth overall, and if they had of had a healthy Matthews, they'd likely have been closer to first (although, keep in mind that an MVP is worth about 6 wins over a full season, so an MVP version of Matthews might have only provided an extra win or two.
Since then , even though they have a five-game winning streak, they are a truly awful, non-playoff team. Even though they are still in first place, they should be concerned.
To sum up: With the best goaltending in hockey, the Leafs climbed as high as 5th overall. Since then, with the 27th best goaltending, they've been only the 17th best team.