The Maple Leafs won’t regret trading Matthew Knies — here’s why

The most recent and perhaps polarizing move of the season was the decision to pull the trigger on trading 23-year-old Matthew Knies to the Columbus Blue Jackets for 26-year-old Kirill Marchenko. The move sparked uncertainty and confusion among a fanbase that never saw Knies as part of the problem, but as part of the solution.

Sporting a 6-foot-3, 230-pound frame and all the intangibles you could ask of a bona fide top-six power forward, Knies was under contract for the next five years with an AAV under $8 million.

Knies' cap hit puts him alongside seasoned top-six forwards and two-way scorers like Brock Nelson and Andrew Svechnikov, both of whom contribute mightily to two elite Stanley Cup-contending teams this season. At ages 34 and 26, Knies ' early-career point totals over the last two seasons actually eclipse those of the two veteran forwards:

• Knies — 157 GP, 52 G, 124 Pts
• Nelson — 161GP, 59 G, 121 Pts
• Svechnikov — 151 GP, 51 G, 118 Pts

His development as a player has shown steady growth in point totals since he entered the league as a full-time pro in 2023, and durability has been a hallmark of his early-career profile, with only 9 games missed over the last 3 seasons. The combination of both skill and tenacity puts Knies among the most promising premier power forwards with untapped upside.

Kirill Marchenko is an offensive juggernaut

Before signing a lucrative six-year, $75 million contract with the Leafs, which kicks in next season, Marchenko had vastly outperformed the 3-year, $11.5 million pact he signed in 2024. The savvy right winger has showcased his big-play ability in Columbus and demonstrates elite instincts to drive plays on and off the puck. His 6-foot-3 frame makes him a towering presence on the ice when he utilizes his game-breaking speed and predatory instincts with the puck.

According to NHL EDGE stats, Marchenko was in the 99th percentile last season for players who generated 20plus mph speed bursts. The numbers also highlight elite shot metrics, placing him in the 97th percentile for mid-range goals, the 95th percentile for mid-range shots on goal, and the 98th percentile for long-range shots on goal during the 2024/25 season. It's easy to see what Chayka and his team found so enticing about Marchenko's availability on the trade market.

For the eye-test savants who place more value on what a player shows us and want to know what a more mature version of Marchenko could look like, I'd turn to the likes of Mika Zibanajed, not only for his luscious, flowing hair and the graceful extensions of his open-ice stride, but also for the way he utilizes his speed, making quick lateral bursts to find open seams without the puck, and finding ways to positively affect the game on the power play as both a flank (on the half wall) and a bumper (in the high slot). Both Mika and Kirill also have some of the quickest releases in the league and, as a result, score in the 90th percentile in a number of the most relevant shooting metrics, which means they don't just score goals; they create their own chances that extend beyond your typical high-danger zones.

A part of Marchenko's game that exceeds Mika's is his lateral movement. The metrics that ranked him so high for 20+ mph bursts last season also show why he ranked 5th in goals scored directly off the rush, tying him with Connor McDavid.

Speed does, in fact, kill, and with Marchenko's quick burst and ability to find open seams, he will no doubt benefit beyond what he was accustomed to in Columbus from playing alongside a threat as imposing on team defences as Auston Matthews.

Easton Cowan will score 50+ points in his second season

One of the driving factors and recurring narratives from John Chayka this offseason was roster flexibility, and what's great about all the forward signings this offseason is how accustomed they are to playing up, down, and side to side throughout a lineup. Chayka's a savvy guy, and I don't doubt for a second that Knies isn't traded without considering their LW depth and feeling that they have untapped potential with a guy like Cowan to take that top-6 opportunity and run with it.

We've already seen Cowan's puck-hunting prowess through two games this season. Not to mention his ability to make things happen when he gets it back. And his time so far on the third line with Sissons and Paul has seen him become the focal point of driving plays and setting up chances for his linemates, while his role on the second power-play unit typically operates as a strong net-front presence, with the skills required to fill in as a flank as well.

Cowan's tenacity in hounding pucks is why fans will clamour for him to be that energizer on a top-six line, but it's his quick decision-making that will help him not just survive as a workhorse, but thrive as a legitimate skill player. Halfway through the second period against the Islanders, Cowan received the puck in the corner of the Isles' offensive zone and, in a flash, got it off his stick to Sissons, who was streaking down the middle of the ice to create one of several high-danger chances from the third line — Cowan took a big hit from 6-foot-7 Logan Stanley in the process. Later in the game, during an after-whistle scrum, Cowan didn't forget or shy away from feeding him a shot to the chin.

The most notable growth in Cowan's game this season has been his willingness to take matters into his own hands offensively. His confidence with the puck on his stick, especially against the Islanders, was on full display, and Sissons was the beneficiary of a number of chances because of it.

Giving Cowan more leash early in the season and playing him alongside a guy like Matthews would offer him more ice time and more offensive-zone opportunities to showcase his gifts. It feels like only a matter of time before Hiller and his staff can't hold out any longer and give Cowan a chance to contribute on the top line, where he will no doubt reach a new career high in points and give Matthews another blue-collar, offensively gifted, left-handed winger opposite newcomer Kirill Marchenko.

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