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The Maple Leafs' season will live or die in October

Toronto Maple Leafs should be off to a hot start with an easy schedule.
ByStephen Nixon
Sep 23, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN;  Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly (44) celebrates with forward Auston Matthews (34) and defenseman Darren Raddysh (43) after scoring a goal against the Ottawa Senators in the second period at Scotiabank Arena.  Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
Sep 23, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly (44) celebrates with forward Auston Matthews (34) and defenseman Darren Raddysh (43) after scoring a goal against the Ottawa Senators in the second period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Toronto Maple Leafs are known for their slow starts, but they can't afford that this year if they want to get back into the playoffs.

Over the past five years, the Leafs have barely been an above .500 team, with their best record being a 6-4-1 start in 2024. In year's past when it was seemingly a three-horse race, the organization could afford a slower start but with the Atlantic Division being the best in hockey, Toronto cannot afford to take their foot off the gas early.

With the NHL season starting in September this year, the Leafs have 16 games between September 29 and October 31. They essentially play every other night, so by Halloween we should have a pretty good idea whether or not this will be a playoff team once again.

The roster looks very different from year's past, but it will still be the same core that will be the factor in determining whether or not they'll be playing meaningful hockey this year. With a newly added number-one goalie, defenseman and overall pick, the Leafs are still not a guaranteed lock for the playoffs, as health could be questioned.

If you look at the schedule, the Leafs only play five teams that were playoff teams last year in their first 16, so they should be able to took full advantage of what seems to be a light workload. However, these are a few of the games that could really make or break the first quarter:

Leafs have an easy first month of the season

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Vegas Golden Knights - October 8th
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Colorado Avalanche - October 10th
San Jose Sharks @ Toronto Maple Leafs - October 19th
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Edmonton Oilers - October 24th

After starting with four home games, the Leafs take a quick trip west and visit Vegas, Colorado and Utah, which could be a lethal trip. The Golden Knights and Avalanche are two of the best teams in the NHL, so splitting those games could be a huge sign of what's to come.

As for the rest of the month, the Leafs then have to face a future MVP in Macklin Celebrini at home, followed by a multiple MVP in Connor McDavid a few nights later.

Besides those four games, Toronto doesn't really have an excuse to start off slow, as the team should easily be somewhere around 10-6 after the first month of the year and be well on their way to a playoff spot. However, if it turns out that they're well below .500 by November 1st, it will most likely be another long year for the blue-and-white.

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