Seventeen games into the 2026-2027 NHL season, the Toronto Maple Leafs sit at 8-7-2. On the outside looking in, that's not a crisis yet, but it isn't good enough either. Let’s face it, a .529 pace isn’t going to get you into the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, and after last season's collapse, Leafs Nation has no patience left for the "it's early” narrative that is prevalent these days.
While the fans' concerns are valid, it’s important to note that most of what's going wrong is fixable, and the schedule is about to give the Leafs a chance to prove it. Six of the next eight games are in Toronto at Scotiabank Arena, with only a quick trip to Chicago in the middle. If this team is for real, now is when we find out. As the saying goes, “It's go time,” and the Leafs better hope they can get on a heater, and quickly!
Heading into Wednesday night's action, the Maple Leafs were sitting sixth in the Atlantic with 18 points. Trouble is, many of the teams that are hot on their heels have played three or four fewer games, which means they can easily catch the Buds, pushing them further down the standings.
Given all of the off-season changes to the roster, a new general manager and a complete rebuild of the coaching staff, patience to start the season seemed to be a reasonable ask. That said, despite a modest 8-7-2 record, one could easily assess that the time to be patient is over. One could also say that their record might even be flattering, all things considered.
Special teams are keeping them afloat
One of the areas that is saving the Leafs' bacon is the team's penalty kill, which until recently has been outstanding. They're killing at a rate of 88.1% percent, which ranks them fourth overall. That said, the team has been taking far too many penalties, many of which are undisciplined in nature. To date, the team has been tagged with 75 penalties, resulting in 59 penalty kills. The 75 penalties rank the Leafs as the second most penalized team, behind only the Montreal Canadiens with 78 on the season through Tuesday night.
To their credit, the Maple Leafs have only given up seven power play goals, but no penalty kill holds up at that pace forever, and with the Leafs' luck, when it cools off, every lazy stick and late hook is likely going to turn into a goal against.
Tuesday's loss to Utah showed exactly how this plays out. Tied 2-2 in the third, defenseman Darren Raddysh took a penalty he later called "dumb," and Nick Schmaltz scored the winner on the power play. Credit to Raddysh for owning it. But one bad penalty in a tie game is the difference between a point and nothing. Toronto simply cannot afford to miss out on those points.
When we look at the roster, Easton Cowan (7), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (7) and Zack MacEwen (6) lead the way with the most penalties on the team. All three need to be more disciplined.
The power play is also helping to pad the Leafs' results. To date, the team is humming along with a 28.8% success rate. Auston Matthews and William Nylander lead the way with three power play goals each. The team has 15 on the season.
Strip away special teams and its easy to see that this team has been underwater. According to Hockey-Reference.com, the Leafs are struggling at 5-on-5. Through 17 games, the Leafs have a 5-on-5 Corsi For percentage (CF%) of 47.4%. That means Toronto is generating 47.4% of the total shot attempts (shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots) while playing 5-on-5. Opponents are generating the other 52.6%. The fallout is the Leafs are spending too much time in their own zone.
Not careful enough with possession
Maple Leafs head coach Jim Hiller has been clear that giveaways are a big part of it. When you cough up the puck in your own end, you typically spend the next 30-40 seconds chasing, and tired players take penalties. It's all connected. Hiller's fix is simple: spend more time in the offensive zone, forecheck harder and hang on to pucks.
After an extended layoff due to injury, defenseman Chris Tanev has returned to the lineup. His return should help settle things down, but he's been back for two games now, and the Leafs still struggled to get the puck out of their zone against Utah. If the 5-on-5 numbers don't improve with Tanev in the lineup, that tells you the problem isn't just the backend. It's how hard all five guys are working without the puck.
After flirting with an average of around 20 giveaways a game early on in the season, Toronto is slowly righting the ship, averaging closer to 15 giveaways a game at present. That said, the team is ranked 19th overall, so the concerns are still very real.
Good teams close games out. To be blunt, this team hasn't done this with any consistency, and it has hurt them in the standings. Against Seattle, the Leafs clawed back to tie it 4-4 with a minute and a half left, then lost in regulation. Against Utah, they tied it 2-2 midway through the third and walked away with nothing. Against Buffalo, they took a two-goal lead into the third and needed overtime just to salvage a point. Those are points left on the table, and in a tight Eastern Conference, they add up fast and could very well be the difference between the team making the playoffs and sitting out.
The home/road split is closer than it feels. The Leafs are 4-4-1 at home and 4-3-1 on the road. That matters, because seven of the next eight are at home. Scotiabank Arena has to become a place that opposing teams hate to play in. Putting together a meaningful home winning streak will go a long way in determining that.
Bobrovsky not good enough
Full disclosure, despite our love for the guy, netminder Sergei Bobrovsky has not been good enough. When you sign the top free-agent goalie on the market, you expect him to steal games, not give them away. He's given up three or more goals in 10 of 11 starts. Along the way, he has “earned” a 3-6-2 record, bolstered by his bloated 3.27 goals against average and .889 save percentage.
Comparatively, Anthony Stolarz owns a 5-1-0 record to go with a tidy 2.66 GAA and a .910 save percentage.
Of course, pinning the Leafs' struggles on Bobrovsky alone lets everyone else off the hook. Yes, his glove hand looks to be suspect at times, he is getting beat up top too often and there are nights where he has let a few questionable pucks past him. But goalies don't take penalties or turn pucks over at their own blue line. Fix the structure and Bobrovsky's numbers will follow.
Some issues with William Nylander are becoming apparent
Which brings us to William Nylander. Nobody questions what the man they call “Willy-styles” brings offensively. He's one of the most gifted scorers this franchise has ever had, and he just passed Leafs' legend Rick Vaive with his 300th goal. But he plays top minutes against the other team's best players, and when he isn't fully engaged in his own zone, his lackadaisical play often costs the Leafs in the win column. Sure, Nylander is producing elite offensive numbers (21 points in 17 games), but his defensive results at 5-on-5 are considerably less impressive, with approximately 4.0 GA/60, which is amongst the League's worst.
Far too often, Nylander fails to compete in his own zone. He tends to coast when backchecking, has a low compete level along the boards, rarely lays the body and genuinely looks disinterested if the puck is not past centre ice.
Hiller has already sent a message to Willy, but I am not convinced it landed. Early in the season, Nylander stayed on the bench for a late 6-on-5 after a defensive mistake. That's the right call, but benching’s only go so far with a veteran who's been playing this way for a decade.
The real question is whether he can change. A framework I would use to debate Willy’s commitment is skill vs. will. Is it that he can't do the dirty work (skill), or that he won't (will)?
I lean toward will. We've seen him backcheck hard, lift sticks and win battles when he decides to. The skill is there. What's missing is doing it every shift, especially when the game is on the line. After years without anyone really demanding it, maybe it's become habit?
That's why the messenger matters. Hiller asking for more defense likely does not land with Nylander. It’s just another coach asking him to do his job. Mats Sundin or Daniel Alfredsson asking could be different. Both are Swedish, both were stars who did the hard work in all three zones, and both know what it takes to be remembered as more than a scorer. A conversation about legacy, coming from one or both of them, might land in a way a benching never will.
For all the frustration, there's plenty to like. Jack Roslovic is on a heater, recording points in seven consecutive games, accumulating four goals and seven assists for 11 points during that stretch. His seven-game point streak is a career high, and with 18 points (8G, 10A) through 17 games, Roslovic has quickly become one of Toronto's most productive offensive players.
Even with limited minutes, rookie forward Gavin McKenna is producing like a top pick should, scoring five goals and adding seven assists for 12 points on the season, and he's only getting better. Despite my earlier comments, Bobrovsky looked like himself against Utah. If that holds, everything gets easier.
Matthews is producing at an elite rate and has re-established himself as one of the NHL's premier offensive threats. His 28 points in 17 games is impressive. Meanwhile, sophomore Easton Cowan is showing amazing progress with 14 points in his first 17 games. His elevated compete level has been consistent every night, and his ability to create offense makes him a threat on every shift.
And the team is getting healthier. As we mentioned before, Tanev is back and forward John Tavares is finally skating with the team after a long layoff with an injury, albeit reportedly in a red jersey. If Tanev can stay healthy, Tavares comes back and Kirill Marchenko makes a return a few weeks down the road, the team has a chance to put together a significant streak that catapults them into a playoff spot.
For now, the Maple Leafs need to bank some points against some tough upcoming opponents. Over the next eight game they will take on the Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild, Edmonton Oilers, Chicago Blackhawks and the Los Angeles Kings. Six of those games will be at home. That stretch will not be easy, but it will likely tell us who this team is as they will hit the 25-game mark once that stretch is completed.
If the Leafs keep hovering around the .500 mark, they could be staring down another season in which they fail to make the playoffs. If the team is to avoid that outcome, they will need to cut the penalties, take care of the puck, and get their best players to compete in all three zones. It would also be great if Darren Raddysh could find the back of the net (zero goals on the season), but I digress! The talent is there, but even with home ice advantage, the competition is going to be stiff, so the timing may not be right to make it happen.
That said, the season is ticking away and there is simply no time to waste. It's go time, boys. Show us what you got!
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