The Maple Leafs have played 19 games. Thus far, they have an 8-9-2 record, which equates to a .474 winning percentage. They've scored 64 goals and allowed 64. They've been bolstered by decent special teams, but there is evidence the penalty kill is sliding, and that has cost them a few games over the last week to ten days.
Between the pipes, Sergei Bobrovsky has quickly gone from giving fans hope to being this year's scapegoat.
On the blue line, an injury to Chris Tanev, subpar play from off-season acquisition Darren Raddysh, and a lack of overall size and skill have crippled their back end.
Up front, injuries have derailed what was once a lineup the opposition feared. First it was John Tavares with an upper-body injury, then Kirill Marchenko with a lower-body injury, and just as they got Tavares back, Jack Roslovic went down.
William Nylander continues to impress in the offensive zone, but he balances his brilliance with a lack of effort in his own zone and a penchant for giveaways. And then there's the captain. Matthews has had a very good season with 11 goals and 27 points on the season, which ranks him sixth in the NHL scoring race. Offensive accomplishments aside, we need more from Matthews, starting with a more consistent effort in the leadership department. He needs to take this team on his shoulders and drag them to the playoffs if it's going to happen. Nothing less. He's capable of it, but ten years into his career, we are still waiting for him to truly lead.
Adding to the Leafs' struggles up front is rookie forward Gavin McKenna's glaring deficiencies at five-on-five, and a bottom six that is talented at keeping the puck out of their own net but lacks firepower.
With so many question marks heading into this season, none of the above should surprise Leafs fans. But with the fanbase expecting the team to compete for a playoff spot, the results have fallen flat.
Last year, the Philadelphia Flyers earned the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference with 98 points. With the regular season going from 82 games to 84, the smart money says it will take 100 points to make the playoffs this year.
I'm no genius, but by my account, a 100-point season would require a winning percentage in the .595 range. Factor in the 18 points they've already banked, and the Leafs would need 82 points over their final 65 games, a .631 pace, a number that seems impossible for the blue and white to reach at present.
Now, don't get me wrong, stranger things have happened. IF the Maple Leafs can find a way to stay healthy and get average goaltending from Bobrovsky and his sidekick Anthony Stolarz, they could pull off their own version of the Miracle on Ice and hit that 100-point mark.
Given how poorly they've played over the past week to ten days, Leafs fans can be excused if they don't hold their breath.
So, what needs to change?
For starters, the goaltending has to get better. Stolarz has been decent at times, but as a tandem, the Leafs have an .897 save percentage and a 3.04 goals-against average. Add a few poorly timed goals against, and it's simply not good enough.
The forwards need to mesh, and to do so, they need a healthy lineup. The first line has been largely consistent, with Auston Matthews between Jack Roslovic and Easton Cowan, but the second and third lines have seen a plethora of characters. With all due respect to the fourth line (which has been excellent at keeping the puck out of the net), it's the top three lines that will deliver this team to the promised land. A healthy Tavares will bring a measure of stability, even if he shifts to the wing. Of greater importance will be a healthy Marchenko, who is still a week or more away.
Of course, a healthy forward group won't fix the group's defensive lapses, won't make Nylander's back-checking any better, and won't cure McKenna's gaffes at five-on-five. But it will give them something they haven't had on a lot of nights: hope and a chance to win.
As for the defense? Well, we already covered that, and it isn't good. Bottom line, the Leafs get outclassed on the back end on a nightly basis. Morgan Rielly is 32, Oliver Ekman-Larsson is 35, Jake McCabe is 33, Troy Stecher is 32, Raddysh is 30 and Tanev is 36. Not a single member of the Leafs' starting six is under 30.
The end result? The Leafs' defense is slow, undersized and, with just two goals between them (four if you count the defensemen who have filled in on occasion), offensively challenged, too.
Behind the bench, head coach Jim Hiller has had moments of brilliance, moments fans questioned and moments of stupidity!
I admire his ability to make in-game changes, but like many, I question the way he deploys McKenna, and I'd like to see him ice a consistent lineup.
Injuries have played a part in Hiller's decision-making, but with 19 games in the books, I think we're all past the excuses stage.
The entire team needs to get its collective "poop" together, and quickly.
No more lazy plays. No more slow starts. No more untimely giveaways. No more bad penalties (which have crippled this team). No more subpar goaltending. All of it has to change. Now. And there is no doubt in my mind that Auston Matthews needs to be the driver. He has to take a hold of this team and drag them kicking and screaming into the playoffs.
Because if this team waits another 19 games to find its way, the only place it will find itself come playoff time is on the outside looking in. And that's not going to look good on Chayka, Matthews or the rest of the Maple Leafs brass.
Add us as a preferred source on Google