The Maple Leafs' missed opportunities could come back to haunt them

Stop me if you've heard this before: "I know it's early, but..", "It's just three games, but..", "They'll figure it out. It's still early."

Over the last few weeks, especially when it comes to the Toronto Maple Leafs, you have probably heard or read these words a million times, or at least a variation of them. It's true. It is early. These teams do need time to find their groove, and nothing is settled in October.

Or is it?

While all of these things may be accurate, it is also true that the points count just the same in October as they do in March and April. When the tally is added up and the playoff teams are decided, there are no asterisks beside the games that are played in the fall.

As good as the Central Division has become, there is probably no division where this is truer than the Atlantic. That is why letting a 2-1 lead slip against the Ottawa Senators stings, even though it's October. That's why five points in three games since then matter, even if it's October.

So, how much does it really matter?

The race is always tighter than you think

For quick context, let's look back at the last few seasons. Just as a reminder, the top three teams in each division automatically punch a ticket into the postseason, while the rest of the conference battle for the two wild-card spots.

Last season, in the Metro, the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Philadelphia Flyers finished second and third in the division with 98 points. Since the last wild-card team finished with 99 points, the Washington Capitals and Columbus Blue Jackets missed the playoffs with 95 and 92 points, respectively.

In 2024-25, the New Jersey Devils finished third in the Metro, and the Montreal Canadiens grabbed the last wild card; and both had 91 points. The Blue Jackets missed out on both spots by just two points, and the Detroit Red Wings fell short by five points. In the West, the Calgary Flames and the St. Louis Blues each had 96 points, but the Blues grabbed the second wild-card due to a tiebreaker.

Lastly, in 2023-24, the Red Wings lost the tiebreaker to the Capitals, and the Penguins missed out by three points.

The basic principle is that there are always teams that barely miss the playoffs who could have avoided doing so if they had taken advantage of the opportunities along the way. That may seem obvious, but when a team is given the benefit of the doubt because it's "early", it needs to be remembered.

It's true that for certain teams, this matters more than for others. The Avalanche, for example, probably won't miss the postseason because of their loss on Saturday. The same goes for any losses the Carolina Hurricanes or the Dallas Stars endure this month.

For the Leafs, however, they do not have the same luxury.

Losses to Ottawa and Vegas might come back to haunt the Maple Leafs

On Oct. 3, the Maple Leafs played their third game of the season. They hosted the Senators in what was Ottawa's first game of the season. Halfway through the second period, the Leafs were up 2-1 and were seemingly in control of the game. After Toronto outshot Ottawa 24-13 in the first 40 minutes, they were outshot 16-5 in the third and eventually dropped the contest 3-2 in regulation.

When you control the game for as long as they did, and find yourself up after 30 minutes, you have to find a way to get at least a point. In a perfect world, you would grab two. Well, the Leafs got neither and gave them away to a division rival.

Five nights later, the Leafs started this current three-game road trip in Vegas against the Golden Knights and came out of the gate flying. They were all over Vegas and were up 3-0 less than 10 minutes into the opening frame. Toronto gave up a goal at the end of the period, was dominated in the second, and eventually lost the game 4-3 in a shootout.

No lead is safe against the Golden Knights, and the Senators always give the Maple Leafs a hard time. That, and we all know Toronto has essentially a brand new roster that needs time to grow accustomed to each other. Regardless, against Ottawa, leaving the ice pointless was extremely disappointing. When you're up 3-0, not getting the full two points is equally frustrating, even if it is against a Cup contender.

Leafs bounce back with three-game point streak

On the flip side, this current three-game point streak could save Toronto's season.

Last Tuesday's game against the Nashville Predators was literally the exact opposite of the game against Vegas. 23 minutes into the night, the Preds were up 3-0. The Leafs essentially dominated the rest of the game and ended up winning 5-4 in overtime. Getting even one point when you're down 3-0 is a tall hill to climb. Grabbing two is an impressive feat.

Admittedly, I'm about to contradict myself here. Yes, not finishing the job against Vegas is disappointing. On the other hand, in the context of the game, the Golden Knights should have won in regulation if it weren't for the heroics of Sergei Bobrovsky. So, while you would have preferred the win, snatching a point is better than nothing.

Lastly, Saturday night's win over the Colorado Avalanche was easily Toronto's most impressive game of the season. John Tavares was back in Toronto for the birth of his fourth child, and the defense had not been playing well up until that point. The Leafs came back from multiple one-goal deficits to eventually win decisively 6-3 over the reigning Presidents' Trophy winner.

If getting one point in two games when you had the lead in both could cost your season, getting five points in three games that you probably should've lost could save it. Those are the streaks they will need if they want to keep playing at the end of April.

It's no longer early for the Maple Leafs

The Atlantic is the most competitive division in the NHL. Seven of the eight teams have playoff aspirations, and while I personally don't expect much from the Detroit Red Wings, they are always a force to be reckoned with for at least part of the regular season.

At the start of the season, it was clear that 67% of the forwards on the ice were new additions to the Maple Leafs. They needed time to find chemistry. Fine. The Leafs have the oldest D-core in the league, and Darren Raddysh needs time to settle in. Also fine. But guess what? The rest of the division doesn't care.

Early is irrelevant when the margins are so thin at the end of season.

Now, to be clear, the Leafs are going to lose games. Obviously. But they cannot let opportunities slip away. In those losses to Ottawa and Vegas, they did just that. But maybe this point streak makes up for it.

I'm all about grace, and I think we've given Toronto their fair share over two weeks. Now, excuses are out the window. They think they're a real team, and they've shown that over the last seven days. Now, it's time to continue to prove it.

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