The Toronto Maple Leafs haven't had a true number one defenseman since Borje Salming, which was about nearly 40 years ago. That's not a knock on those who followed. Tomas Kaberle was an elite puck-mover. Bryan McCabe had a monster shot. Morgan Rielly was a reliable top-pair presence for a decade. But each of them was at his best as part of a pair rather than carrying the blue line alone. Each was, at their peak, no better than a No. 2 and that may be being kind.
With few assets in the cupboard, limited draft capital, an aging defense and with most of their prospects two or three years away, is it time for the Maple Leafs to throw in the towel on the Auston Matthews era and start the process of another rebuild?
With the Leafs currently struggling, my mind has been wandering. If this team is destined to not make the playoffs this season, what should the future hold?
Let’s assume for the moment that Matthews, William Nylander and the other veterans are gone. Who's left to build around?
Gavin McKenna. Easton Cowan. Kirill Marchenko would emerge as your core forwards, while Artur Akhtyamov might be your centerpiece between the pipes.
That's three pieces up front and a goalie. Notice what's missing? The blue line Is the obvious gap.
The Leafs don't have a top-pairing defenseman coming
The system's two best defense prospects are arguably Ben Danford and Alexander Bilecki. I like both, but they have limitations. Now, don't get me wrong, Danford helped the Toronto Marlies win a Calder Cup, and Bilecki is a mobile, Mississauga-born Memorial Cup champion.
Neither projects as a number one defenseman, though. Daily Faceoff sees Danford as a bottom-pairing defenseman with a solid floor and Bilecki as a bottom-pairing projection with room to grow as a puck-mover. Ethan MacKenzie and Noah Chadwick might emerge as useful depth, but they're also left shots. That leaves Danford as the only right-side piece of note.
Add it all up and at best these players are support pieces, not top pairing defensemen that will influence games in a nightly basis. The anchor has to come from somewhere else.
Leafs may need to trade Matthews or Nylander to get No. 1 defenseman
So how do you land a top pairing defenseman? Matthews and Nylander are the currency.
If a top-pairing defenseman is coming, it comes in a Matthews trade, a Nylander trade, or both. And if you are going to trade either player, I'd target a high-end young defenseman in each deal.
Now don’t get it twisted, Toronto won't hold all the cards. Matthews holds a full no-movement clause for the rest of his deal, and Nylander's runs through 2029-30. Each player picks his destination, and that may not be the team with the defenseman Toronto wants.
Timing matters too. Matthews' contract runs two more seasons, and his trade value drops the closer he gets to free agency. In the offseason, Nylander said he wanted nothing to do with a rebuild. If Maple Leafs General Manager John Chayka was to approach Nylander to alert him to a change in direction, the domino affect may be that Matthews chooses to join him and requests or allows a trade out of Toronto as well.
What should this defenseman look like?
Let's be realistic. A finished No. 1 defenseman is not coming back in a Matthews or Nylander deal. Teams rarely trade those kinda players, so let’s soften our expectations here. The realistic return is a young defenseman who might grow into a top-pair anchor, not a polished product. That means Toronto is buying a projection, so the profile matters more than the name.
It's not going to be a simple target, but this hypothetical defenseman that the Leafs get in return for either Matthews or Nylander can look like this:
-Age 19 to 22, so he peaks alongside McKenna and Cowan.
- A right shot, ideally, to balance a left-heavy pipeline.
- The potential for elite skating and transition abilities, which are the hardest skills to teach and typically the firm line between a No. 1 and a No. 2 defenseman.
- Someone that is already playing meaningful minutes. Maybe they are already in the NHL, AHL, NCAA, so that development isn't starting from scratch.
The other lever is quantity. Pair the defenseman with a first-round pick or a second high-end prospect. Two or three swings at a number one defenseman beats one and insulates the Leafs from making a miscalculation,
Forty years is long enough. If the Leafs are going to move a franchise player, the return has to fix the one thing this franchise hasn't fixed since Salming.
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