The Toronto Maple Leafs received a gift on Tuesday.
The Maple Leafs won the draft lottery, stunning the NHL, giving them the first overall pick on June 26th in Buffalo. Heading into the draft, the Maple Leafs sat with the fifth-best odds heading into Tuesday with an 8.5% chance of winning the lottery.
In just one night, the outlook of the Maple Leafs season and the future of the organization changes. With the opportunity to add an elite prospect, the Maple Leafs are now positioned to form one of the most dangerous cores in the NHL, building around Auston Matthews and William Nylander.
Heading into Buffalo in late June, there will likely not be a lot of speculation on who they draft, with many believing the obvious choice is Gavin McKenna. However, the 2026 NHL Draft is not expected to have one single generational talent, but rather a lot of high-end players who can change your franchise overnight. This article is going to analyze who may fit best within the Maple Leafs system, and who the best choice could be for John Chayka on draft night.
Gavin McKenna - Penn State University (NCAA)
The Gavin McKenna sweepstakes have highlighted the 2026 NHL Draft for as long as hockey fans can remember. Since the beginning of McKenna's junior career, he has dominated. At the age of 16, he set a Medicine Hat record in the WHL, scoring 97 points, including 34 goals. He continued this, his very next season scoring video game type numbers, producing 129 points in 56 games, including 41 goals. Heading into the 2026 season, McKenna decided to make the change and head to the NCAA, where he impressed, registering 51 points, including 15 goals in 35 games played.
McKenna's reasoning for being the projected first overall pick goes far beyond just the stats. He has a very special skill set that sets him apart from everyone else in this draft class. This was noticeable from a young age, when he played in the famous U-10 Brick Invitational Tournament. McKenna's jump to the NCAA this past season proved that next season, he can make an impact in the NHL. Instead of staying in the WHL and dominating, McKenna decided to challenge himself and play against older players who have already been drafted and are signed by their NHL organizations in the Big Ten Conference. Playing this level of hockey can help ease the jump into the NHL next season. McKenna continued with Penn State, was able to drive the play five on five, which is what the Maple Leafs missed at points of the season, and continued to develop as the season went on.
Ivar Stenberg - Frolunda HC (SHL)
Ivar Stenberg has been second among mock drafts this season, and is the number one rated international forward. Over the past few months, Stenberg and McKenna have separated themselves from the remainder of the draft class. In Stenberg's first season playing professional hockey in the Swedish Hockey League, he has proved to have played extremely well, producing 33 points, including 11 goals in 43 games. Where many heard Stenberg's name was during the 2025-26 IIHF World Junior Championship, where he dominated, scoring 10 points in seven contests, including four goals over that span.
The Swedish winger provides a strong two-way game, while providing a dynamic offensive style of hockey, with a high hockey IQ. His defensive presence in all three zones earns the trust of any coach. The Maple Leafs, for the majority of this past season, struggled to keep the puck out of their own net, as they didn't have a true two-way forward to be effective on all sides of the puck. Over the course of the SHL season, Stenberg displayed a level of maturity well beyond his years, particularly impressive for an 18-year-old competing against professionals. His point totals surpass those of players such as Leo Carlsson and Anton Frondell from a few years prior, when played in the SHL. Stenberg is projected to become a top-line winger in the NHL.
Chase Reid - Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
Chase Reid is a player many did not expect to be this high on anyone's list just one season ago. He began his 2024-25 season in the NAHL playing for the Bismarck Bobcats, where he impressed many, producing 12 points in 18 games, including six goals. His play then began to catch the eye of many, and he decided to move to the OHL to play for the Sault Ste. Marie over the past two campaigns.
In his first season in the OHL, Reid played solidly, expanding his offensive style of hockey, registering 40 points in 39 games, including seven goals. This season with the Greyhounds, Reid continued his success, producing 56 points, including 15 goals in 57 games. Chase Reid also earned the opportunity to represent Team USA at the IIHF World Junior Championship, where he played well, scoring four points in five games.
What makes Reid an intriguing player for the Maple Leafs is his ability to move the puck and be the offensive defenceman they have desperately needed. Morgan Rielly is no longer the player he once was, and the Maple Leafs need someone to step into that role and be their number one defenceman moving forward.
Reid is also a great skater, having impeccable edgework, allowing him to carry the puck with ease. He has been a crucial part of the Greyhounds blue line, being their best defenceman in all three zones of the ice. On the defensive side of the puck, Reid has shown he can slow down the rush with his stick. The 18-year-old is able to lead the breakout and play critical minutes in all scenarios. For what the Maple Leafs are missing on the blueline, Reid is someone they have been missing, and someone they can build their blueline around for the future.
John Chayka and the management staff will have a big decision as the NHL Draft is set for June 26th in Buffalo. All sources have the Maple Leafs selecting McKenna; however, any of these three choices will help the Maple Leafs get back to the team we saw just one season ago.
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