One of the things I’ve wondered over the last couple of months is what would have happened if the Maple Leafs had not landed the first-overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft?
Of course, we all know what happened. The Leafs won the NHL Draft Lottery and landed Gavin McKenna. That’s what happened on this timeline. But what about an alternate timeline in which the Leafs didn’t win the pick?
Two things could have happened.
First, let’s imagine two other clubs would have stepped in front of the Maple Leafs. Even if just one team that finished behind the Leafs had moved up ahead. That would have dropped the Leafs’ selection to sixth overall, and guess what?
The Boston Bruins would have gotten the pick. That would have closed the book on the story. The Leafs’ tank would have been for naught, and John Chayka would have had to figure out how to revitalize the team without Gavin McKenna.
It’s safe to say that without McKenna, the Leafs would have had trouble signing free agents like Sergei Bobrovsky. Such a timeline would have been an absolute disaster.
Second, this timeline is a little more favorable. Let’s assume that the Vancouver Canucks would have secured the top pick, while another club, like, say, the New York Rangers, nabbed the second pick.
That scenario would have left Toronto with the fifth-overall pick. The Leafs could have kept it. And Chayka would have also traded it. Unless Chayka believed that he could land a high-end blueliner like Chase Reid or Keaton Verhoeff, which he could have, the pick would have become the Leafs’ most valuable trade chip.
The reason why Chayka would have traded it is that the team is supposed to be retooling, not rebuilding. Verhoeff or Reid won’t likely factor in this NHL season. If anything, they could be two or three years away from meaningful contributions.
Trading the pick, however, could have landed Toronto something like what the Chicago Blackhawks got. The fourth-overall pick got them, Bowen Byram. Now, I’m not saying the Maple Leafs would have acquired Byram, but the pick could have led to a player of that stature.
Keeping the pick and drafting a high-end defenseman, while certainly a necessity, would have signaled that the team is rebuilding. And that’s not the message Chayka wanted to send.
All in all, things played out much better than anyone could have imagined. Keeping this year’s first-rounder was more than enough. But getting the first-overall selection, that’s just as fortunate as finding a four-leaf clover.
Leafs fans must thank the hockey god for allowing things to play out the way they did.
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