The Toronto Maple Leafs drafted Mitch "The Magician" Marner with their fourth overall pick at the 2015 NHL Draft. Roughly a decade out, that pick looks like one of the best choices as Marner would arguably go even higher in a redraft.
It can be easy to take for granted the sheer greatness that he has performed at over his career. in 634 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs he has 212 goals, 50 assists and 713 points. He has been a consistent scorer, producing above a point-per-game for the past seven seasons while being one of the best defensive wingers in the league.
In his time donning the blue and white, Marner has cemented himself as one of the franchise's best, breaking franchise record after franchise record and is currently sitting one point out from fifth in all-time scoring for the club. There is no question that he is a superstar and one of the league's premier players.
In saying all of this, he is a pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) this summer and as the deadline quickly approaches, the question of "should the team trade him or let him walk?" always comes into play. This is especially true given Marner's agent Darren Ferris and his reputation as a tough negotiator and him and his clients' reported desire to hit the free agent market.
There is always merit to keeping a pending UFA in hopes of maximizing their teams chances to win but recently, the Colorado Avalanche went against this philosophy and traded their own drafted star winger, Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes in one of the most exciting blockbuster NHL trades in years. It begs the question if the Leafs should follow suit, assuming of course, that Marner would waive his no-movement clause in the first place.
Should the Toronto Maple Leafs trade Mitch Marner?
First, it is important to look at Marner's value to the team and what he does in his role with the club.
Marner is a very valuable piece to the Maple Leafs forward group, he logs plenty of minutes on special teams and at 5v5, leading all forwards in time-on-ice at all situations on the season so far. At 5-on-5 he typically plays first line right-wing beside Auston Matthews but does also move down to the second line with John Tavares. He also occupies a spot on the team's loaded top powerplay unit as well as playing a significant role while shorthanded.
As I mentioned above, he scores at a high rate, currently leading the team this year and since 2016-17, while also playing an important role on the defensive side of the ice. Although he receives a lot of criticism for not performing in the playoffs, he still leads all Leafs players since he entered the league with 50 points in 57 playoff games. This is more than any core member; Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares. He is an important part of the team and that cannot be understated.
In saying this, he is a pending unrestricted free agent and there is much for the front office to consider entering this summer. The salary cap is rising with early estimates expecting a nearly $20 million jump in the salary cap ceiling over the next few years. This means a few things, mainly that his next contract will certainly not come cheap and depending on how badly he wants to maximize his earnings, he may follow in his captain and close friend Auston Matthews' footsteps and sign a short-term deal in hopes of cashing in at least one more time. The cap rising is a good thing and it allows the team the freedom to spend more but it also does the same for 31 other teams, making it hard to anticipate exactly how high his asking price could be.
Unless the team is able to get back a high value top of the lineup player with term in return, it makes very little sense for Leafs GM Brad Treliving to even entertain trading him. There are very few players who would make a fair value deal for Marner, aside from some of the best names in the league. On the market right now there are only a few players who could make sense like; Mikko Rantanen or Elias Pettersson.
There is also the added fear regarding whether or not the new player(s) acquired would fit the team, not to mention fit the team as well or better as Marner has. He logs major minutes and plays in key situations, this is not a role that can be easily filled and would likely require a team effort to plug in the holes that would be left. There is also the stylistic fit that could come into player, which is evident by the stark contrast in the performance of both players in the aforementioned Rantanen deal. Since the trade, Rantanen has only scored three points in seven games with the Hurricanes while Martin Necas has nine points in 10 games for the Avalanche.
There are many factors to consider when looking at trading any player, especially one of this caliber. The team needs to be all-in from here on out, doing everything to win a Stanley Cup during the Matthews era. Although it can be hard to let players walk for nothing in free agency, trading a player as talented as Marner rarely works out well for that team historically. There are rare exceptions but the Maple Leafs are a better team with "the magician" on their roster and although I dislike the risk of losing him for nothing, keeping hin and risking it is still a better option than trading him.