Much of the early attention on the Toronto Maple Leafs' backend has centered on goaltending with one netminder being steady out of the gates, while the other has been surprisingly lackluster, though the underlying numbers tell a different story than the results suggest.
Newcomer Sergei Bobrovsky arrived in Toronto at 38 years old and has won just one of his first four starts, with a 2.97 goals-against average and a .907 save percentage.
Anthony Stolarz, the Leafs' starter over the past two seasons, has largely served as the starter but so far has largely been a backup. The New Jersey native has won two of his three starts but has weaker numbers, including a 3.32 goals-against average and a .875 save percentage.
Sergei Bobrovsky is the clear choice right now
The underlying numbers are more telling, and they favor Bobrovsky by a sizeable margin. Through four starts, the Russian netminder has allowed 12 goals, but his goals saved above expected sits at 4.7, the seventh-highest mark in the NHL this season.
BOBROVSKY ROBS CONNELLY 🤯 pic.twitter.com/W3XA6W2xl5
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) October 9, 2026
He has also done what he can to keep Toronto in games against high-danger chances, posting a .841 save percentage that lands in the 71st percentile. He's totaled 37 high-danger saves, ranking in the 93rd percentile and suggesting better days are likely ahead for Bobrovsky in the Maple Leafs' net.
Stolarz, meanwhile, has posted clearly lesser numbers, which has sparked conversation about a potential trade of the 32-year-old. After three starts, he sits outside the league average in most underlying metrics. His one bright spot is a .900 save percentage against mid-danger chances, which lands in the 59th percentile, but he has been below average across the board.
Stolarz’s goals saved above expected is the most worrying part of the trend as it was a real strength in 2024-25, when his 25.8 ranked among the league’s best, but it fell to -6.7 last season as Toronto slipped as a team, and he has already dipped to -1.0 through three starts this year.
Given the clear gap between the two, despite what the win-loss records say, Toronto should consider rolling out its more experienced netminder more often.
Thursday against the Buffalo Sabres would be a good place to start. Bobrovsky has a 17-9-2 record, a 2.71 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage in 29 career starts against Buffalo. He appears to be the clear option for Toronto on Thursday night and moving forward in the Maple Leafs' crease.
Stats via MoneyPuck and NHL EDGE.
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