Recent injury could be the reason for Auston Matthews slow start

Toronto Maple Leafs captain Auston Matthews is off to a slow start, by his standards. He’s registered five goals and six assists for 11 points in 13 games, however usage and bad luck are the likely culprits because he isn't playing like he's been injured.

Now, I must be honest. I pondered about the reasons for Auston Matthews slow start. First, I considered that Matthews could be feeling the pressure from the responsibility of being named captain. That thought gained some momentum in my mind especially since John Tavares seems to be playing as if liberated from his duty as captain, but realistically, Matthews is putting up really good numbers - if not results - so that's unlikely to be a factor.

Then, I thought: It must be Craig Berube. Berube has been bearing down on Auston Matthews so much that his offensive game has been impacted as a result of Berube’s demands for more accountability and responsibility.

This is reasonable. Matthews is starting the most out of the team's centres in the defensive zone - he was third last year - and this is something that impacts offense, no questions about it. Berube is also using Matthews on the PK which means less 5v5 scoring.

This doesn't explain everything, but it's got to be a factor. But what about injury?

Recent injury could be the reason for Auston Matthews slow start

When news hit that Matthews would miss Wednesday night’s game against the Bruins with an upper-body injury, it dawned on me: he's been playing hurt.

But then, after thinking about it: there's no way to know. We don't even know what is injured. All we know is that it's "upper body" so sure, if his wrist is hurt and he can't shoot, that would explain why he's otherwise playing great but scoring much less than usual. But no other injuries would really explain anything, since everything but the actual goals is just as it's always been.

For example, with Matthews on the ice, the Leafs have higher puck-possession numbers than last year, they are getting a higher percentage of the shots, scoring chances and dangerous scoring chances than they were last year. They are even getting the same results - 60% of the goals scored have been by the Leafs. (naturalstattrick.com).

What's down is Matthews actual individual goal scoring, but given the small sample size and all the peripheral stats being the same or better, this is likely just a function of bad luck: his shooting percentage is down from about a 15% career average to 5%.

Still, the thought of a lingering injury won't go away:

Back in 2021, Matthews had surgery to repair a wrist issue that hampered his elite shot. The injury had gotten to be so bad that it threw Matthews off his game, prompting the Leafs captain and the team to go through surgery.

Even with the injury, Matthews won the Rocket Richard during the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season with 41 goals. When he came back the following season, he hit 60. After a relatively “down” season, Matthews rebounded with 69 goals last year.

So, it seems that Matthews could be going through a similar situation this year. According to insider Darren Dreger, Matthews is dealing with something “he has been fighting through a bit.” That comment seems to suggest that Matthews’ issue has been a lingering one.

However, Dreger added that the Leafs rested Matthews on Tuesday against Boston as a precautionary measure given the way the Leafs schedule is set up.

Does that mean that Matthews will be back in the lineup on Friday night against the Detroit Red Wings? This was written ahead of the game, so you probably already know the answer as you read this. However, since the Leafs play back-to-back games on Friday and Saturday, it’s a distinct possibility that Matthews could play against Detroit but sit out against the Montreal Canadiens.

Ultimately, it all boils down to how Matthews feels. As Dreger pointed out, Matthews’ injury could be nothing more than a day-to-day issue. Matthews missed the Leafs morning skate prior to the Bruins game. So hopefully that means all Matthews needs is some rest and recovery.