Why the Toronto Maple Leafs won't win the Atlantic Division
Regression from the Leafs stars
Auston Matthews is hockey's most prolific goal scorer. Last season he captivated the entire NHL with his chase of seventy goals. He settled for a Maple Leafs franchise record of sixty-nine on a career-best 18.7% shooting percentage.
That percentage was 2.5% higher than his career average. He also directed a career-high 369 shots on goal. Matthews will score many goals, but a regression from those gaudy numbers is possible, and mathematically likely. The result will be fewer points in the standings for the Leafs.
William Nylander's production has increased for three consecutive seasons. He would need to reach a career-high 99 points to make it four in a row. It's attainable since Nylander is in his peak years, but continually increasing your production year-over-year is a tall ask.
John Tavares has more than fulfilled his duties as a Maple Leaf, but he is entering his sixteenth season in the NHL and is 34 years old. It's likely another dip in his production is coming. A decline in numbers from the Leafs biggest stars puts more of the onus on their younger players to contribute.
Age/Health of Leafs roster a concern
Age is the final obstacle in the way of the Leafs divisional hopes. Last year's opening-day roster had an average age of 28.3, roughly around mid-pack league-wide. That number projects to be much higher for the start of 2024-2025.
The Leafs defense is the most experienced area of the roster. Four of the team's projected top six defensemen are over thirty. Those four, Morgan Rielly (30), Jake McCabe (30), Chris Tanev (34), and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (33) will likely log the most minutes on the blue line. Add in Tavares and that is a lot of important players that are more susceptible to injury or a drop-off in performance.
The Maple Leafs most significant health concern is goaltender Joseph Woll. The projected starter has a history of injury issues. Any long-term absence of Woll leaves unproven newcomer Anthony Stolarz and injury-prone Matt Murray to look after netminding duties.
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The Toronto Maple Leafs have star players in their prime years, who can win the Atlantic Division, but they have issues that need to be addressed and require some good fortune for that to happen.