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Why the Toronto Maple Leafs won't win the Atlantic Division

These weaknesses will be too great to overcome in the Leafs search for a division title.

By Jeremy Franks

Oct 14, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward John Tavares (91) celebrates with forwards Mitchell Marner (16) and Auston Matthews (34) and William Nylander (88) after scoring a goal against the Minnesota Wild in the first period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 14, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward John Tavares (91) celebrates with forwards Mitchell Marner (16) and Auston Matthews (34) and William Nylander (88) after scoring a goal against the Minnesota Wild in the first period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports / Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
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The Toronto Maple Leafs are on one of the greatest regular season streaks in franchise history. Their current run of eight consecutive postseason appearances ties them with the Boston Bruins for the NHL's longest active streak.

Playoff success and division titles, however, have been elusive. Excluding the temporary, pandemic-necessitated all-Canadian grouping of 2020-2021, the Toronto Maple Leafs have not won a division title since Pat Quinn coached them to a first-place finish in the Northeast during the 1999-2000 season.

Winning your division and having postseason success are not mutually exclusive. While nothing is ever certain, a high seed thanks to a strong regular season leads to the path of least resistance during the playoffs.

Unfortunately, the Maple Leafs possess enough roster deficiencies that make their quest for an Atlantic Division title, and an advantageous seed, a challenging proposition.

Atlantic Division is the NHL's Toughest

There is no denying the success of the Atlantic Division in recent seasons. During the past six NHL seasons, a team from the Atlantic has appeared in the Stanley Cup Final, with three teams hoisting the championship trophy.

Poke fun of the Leafs if you must, but getting out of the division is no easy task. Last season, Toronto struggled against their division rivals, going 11-12-3. Their record against the Eastern Conference wasn't much better at 22-20-8. (Stats courtesy of espn.com.)

The prior two seasons saw the Leafs accumulate a 31-15-6 divisional record on their way to 111 and 115 points, respectively. Toronto finished second after the 2022-2023 and 2021-2022 seasons. The 2022-2023 season was the only time they made the second round during the eight consecutive playoff appearances.

Improvements from their divisional opponents make a first-place finish an unenviable task. The Florida Panthers might suffer from having two-prolonged postseason runs plus a letdown after winning it all, yet, they still have a formidable lineup and enter the 2024-2025 season with the second-best odds of winning another title.

The Tampa Bay Lightning lost Steven Stamkos but replaced him with the capable Jake Guentzel. They still have the rest of their two-time, Cup-winning core of John Cooper, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Victor Hedman, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov.

Yearly predictions of the Bruins' demise have yet to come to fruition. Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov were added to the core of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, and Jeremy Swayman.

The division's bottom-feeders have also improved. The Ottawa Senators added goaltender Linus Ullmark to their young, up-and-coming stars. The Montreal Canadiens recently added Patrik Laine to their young talent. The Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres may also be in the conversation for a playoff spot.

The Leafs have a better core of talent than every division rival, but Florida. They also have the second-best odds to take the division after the Panthers, but it is the toughest grouping in the NHL, and Toronto has other obstacles to get past.

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