Leafs division rivals are weaker
The reigning Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers are the Leafs biggest threat to a division title. The Panthers have the second-best odds to win the title next season. The Lightning, Bruins, and the rest of the division all have lower odds than Toronto.
Important players have moved on from the Maple Leafs divisional rivals. The Panthers lost Ekman-Larsson, Stolarz (while simultaneously benefitting the Leafs), and Brandon Montour. Sam Reinhart is unlikely to repeat his career year from 2023-2024.
The Lightning lost long-time captain and sniper Steven Stamkos and replaced him with Jake Guentzel. The Bruins parted ways with Jake Debrusk and goalie Linus Ullmark and replaced them with Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov.
At best, the Maple Leafs main divisional rivals come out even regarding their player losses and additions. Toronto's most significant free agent departure was Tyler Bertuzzi whose production is yet to be replaced.
Putting those factors together, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a great opportunity to win their first division title in years.