What The Toronto Maple Leafs Need To Do With All Their Pending Free Agents
On Tuesday, the Toronto Maple Leafs new head coach, Craig Berube, addressed the media for the first time.
While he didn't say too much outside of what you would expect from a coach addressing the harshest media group in the NHL, we did learn that the Maple Leafs front office and Berube would be sitting down with the team scouts throughout the rest of this week and next to assess the roster situation and start planning how they want to approach this offseason.
Now, the front office has already committed to being aggressive and making significant changes in pursuit of getting this team over the hump and into the Stanley Cup finals.
The first step is assessing and figuring out what to do with the players whose contracts have expired.
The Maple Leafs have 12 players on expired contracts—14 if you count John Klingberg and Matt Murray—but I don't see the Leafs' interest in bringing either of those guys back.
Eight of these players will be unrestricted free agents, and the other four are restricted free agents, meaning the Maple Leafs still control their rights and can match any offer given to these four guys. With all of these contacts coming off the books, the Maple Leafs are opening up $28,184,167 in cap space when you factor in the salary cap increase that takes effect before next year.
However, they will have closer to $20,861,780 (via CapFriendly) to work with after factoring in Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Bobby McMann and Simon Benoit's contract extension.
In most cases, this is a lot of cap space to work with, but for a team committed to making significant changes, it could handcuff them. Let's discuss which pending Maple Leafs free agents must return to Toronto next season.
The Toronto Maple Leafs, Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi
Many Leaf fans will probably want these guys back in the blue and white next year. Both of these guys stepped up their game in Mitch Marner's absence late in the regular season, then again in the playoffs when Auston Matthews and William Nylander were dealing with injuries.
However, the problem is that both of these guys are likely due for a pay raise after this season, which shows they can significantly impact a contending team. Considering their defensive and goaltending issues last season, the Leafs' front office can only afford to spend a little of their salary cap on forwards.
In addition, the Maple Leafs have plenty of forwards that can fill these two spots in the top six. Names like Nicholas Robertson, Bobby McMann, and Matthew Knies come to mind. But they also have Easton Cowen and Fraser Minten, who could be ready to jump to the NHL next season.
Given the somewhat limited cap space, the Maple Leafs need to spend money elsewhere to fill bigger holes; the best I can see the front office doing here is getting one of these guys resigned.
While Domi is a near-elite playmaker and passer, Bertuzzi is the guy I would resign.
The Maple Leafs have enough playmakers in their top six, with Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner.
Outside of his passing ability, Domi has little to offer. Bertuzzi does have his flaws, but he graded as an above-average goalscorer and passer last season while ranking in the top 11 percent in forecheck involvement among forwards. He fits the Leafs needs better than Domi, but I would not be shocked if both guys go on to get more significant contacts elsewhere.
Two RFA's the Maple Leafs Must Resign
Timothy Liljegren and Nicholas Robertson are the only players on expired contracts with whom the Maple Leafs must make a deal.
Luckily, they are both restricted free agents, and the Leafs will have the final say on where they will play next season.
Although sometimes inconsistent, Liljegren was among the few bright spots on the blue line last season.
He graded in the top 15 percent of defensemen in offensive wins above replacement (via JFreshHockey), the top 15 percent in passing, and the top eight percent in exit possession rate.
This type of guy helps you win playoff games; Liljegren moves the puck quickly, gets involved on the offensive side and does a good job preventing scoring chances off the rush. I would be floored if the Maple Leafs allowed another team to get their hands on Liljegren, considering he is the only NHL-ready right-handed defenseman the Leafs have control of.
He's also going to be cheap, and you need as many effective, cheap players as you can find in a cap league.
Robertson deserved a more prominent role last season.
Although he only played 56 games, he ranked fourth on the Leafs in points per 60 minutes, second in goals per 60 minutes, and fifth in expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season (via NaturalStatTrick).
He has an unbelievable shot best utilized when playing with other players who can create space for him. Robertson should come at a reasonably cheap price. He will be a great value option to fill one of the holes in the top six if the front office cannot work out deals with both Bertuzzi and Domi.
Forget the Rest, Leafs Need to Cut the Dead Weight
The other pending free agents are Connor Dewar, Noah Gregor, Joel Edmundson, Mark Giordano, Ilya Lybushkin, T.J. Brodie, Martin Jones and Ilya Samsonov.
Of this group, the Torotno Maple Leafs do not need to sign any of these guys.
However, Noah Gregor and Connor Dewar would be welcome to come back on the fourth line. Gregor has phenomenal speed, which the Maple Leafs need to improve in their bottom six forwards; he is a great forechecker and is fearless in throwing his weight around.
Last season, Dewar graded in the top six percent of forwards in defensive wins above replacement. In addition, these guys graded in the top 20 percent of forwards in penalty kill wins above replacement.
As for the rest, the Leafs front office just needs to forget about them.
Samsonov needs a fresh start somewhere else; he was horrendous for most of the regular season and terrible in the playoffs.
Edmundson and Lybushkin are about as mobile as the CN Tower, and both gave the puck away more than twice as many times as they took it away from the other team.
Brodie is another statue that is a horrendous puck mover. Even though he would come at a massive discount compared to his last contract, he is not even worth considering, even at the league minimum; it was evident that Brodie lost more than a step this season.
Jones did a great job as the Maple Leaf's third goalie, but he is optional; the Leafs need to save all the cap space they can to figure out the starting roster before finding a third goalie.
Finally, let's talk about Giordano, the only guy on this list for whom I have a soft spot. He will turn 41 before the next season starts and has blocked the most shots of any player in NHL history. He dealt with many injuries last season, and his body may just be starting to break down. He could come back and play the seventh defenseman role, but in an ideal world, that would be Simon Benoit's role. It is time for Giordano to hang it up after a long, successful career.
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If the Toronto Maple Leafs resign Bertuzzi, Robertson, and Liljegren and bring in two legitimate top-four defensemen and a goalie to work in tandem with Joseph Woll, this roster will be good enough to compete for the Stanley Cup without doing something ridiculously dumb like trading Mitch Marner, as many people are suggesting.