What Should the Toronto Maple Leafs Do With Their RFAs?
The next few months or so are crucial for the future of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are firmly in win-now mode, but don't seem to be very close to winning now. The GM has promised change, but most options to change are closed by a whole bunch of no-movement contracts.
There are a number of unrestricted and restricted free agents that are coming off the books this season, and it is there that the Leafs must look to alter their lineup, as they have few other choices.
Many times in recent years, there have been young players that have left the organization in various ways and have gone on to find plenty of success elsewhere.
As the team continues to allocate more and more cap space to the roster, it will be paramount to their success to continue to replenish depth and have contributions from low-cost players which typically comes from homegrown talent. Or, through finding undervalued assets which is considerably more difficult.
That being said, there are a number of restricted free agent players up for contract renewals this off-season and it is important that Treliving spends a lot of time and effort considering these assets.
Here is how I think the Leafs should deal with their upcoming restricted free-agents.
All Stats and information via: Capfriendly.com and Eliteprospects.com
Connor Dewar
Dewar was acquired by the Toronto Maple Leafs at this past deadline for Dmitry Ovchinnikov and a 2026 fourth round pick.
He played in 17 games for the buds, playing primarily on the fourth line in a forechecking/shutdown role. He isn’t called upon to provide much in terms of offense so his five points in 17 regular season games is no issue.
Instead, his value comes mainly through his speed and IQ. He may even be able to provide a touch more offense if given the right role, too.
The fact that the Leafs traded for him only a few short months ago indicates that he is at least tendered a qualifying offer by the Leafs this summer. As I stated before, he has his role and plays it well but does not provide much in terms of offensive production. As a result, I assume he is locked up for a similar caphit he had this year, under $1 million on a short-term contract.
Noah Gregor
Gregor was a great story this season, coming to training camp on a PTO (professional try-out agreement) and worked his way into a one-year contract for league minimum.
As the season wore on, he appeared to fall out of favor with the Leafs coaching staff. He was a healthy scratch for five of the teams seven first round games and only appeared in six of the team’s final 12 games in the regular season.
Like Dewar, he primarily played a fourth line role providing forechecking and shutdown abilities, mainly utilizing his high end foot-speed. Unlike Dewar, the fourth line struggled mightily while he was on it and his on-ice results were very poor as a result. This along with his skillset becoming somewhat redundant with the acquisition of Dewar makes me lean towards letting him walk.
Nick Robertson
At one point, Robertson was seen as a massive steal for the Maple Leafs. Whether he is still seen that way or not is irrelevant, because he still is. Anytime you can scoop up a potential star player in the second round, you've got to be happy.
Now, nearly five years after he was drafted, he is included in many mock trades and has struggled to to keep a consistent role with the Leafs. This has way more to do with social media and people being inpatient than it does with his actual development, which is on track.
Robertson has deal with some major injuries in key development years, but finally seemed to break out this season scoring 14 goals and 27 points through 56 games in a limited role that he belongs in the NHL.
Even if it’s only as a third line/middle-six secondary scorer, his shooting talent and motor alone make him an intriguing option on a nightly basis. He's likely better than that though, since most of goal scoring was done in limited minutes without power-play usage.
Robertson scored at roughly the same 5v5 rate as 40 goal scorer William Nylander, so he's clearly a talented player.
He undoubtedly has more to give and with at least a couple years runway for development at only 22, he deserves a contract. I would assume it’s a short-term contract for one or two years given some legitimate questions regarding his health and exactly what his ceiling is.
A few comparable contracts could be Lukas Reichel, Morgan Frost, and Alexis Lafrenière. They all received two-year deals on their second contract ranging from $1.2 million and $2.33 million per season. Robertson likely comes in closer to Reichel’s $1.2 million as they both have played under 100 games with just over 30 points at this point through their careers.
Timothy Liljegren
Liljegren had a similar career trajectory to Robertson. When he was drafted and shortly after, he was seen as a big steal but when he didn’t become a full-time NHL player after a few seasons, he started being cast aside by many fans and media.
However Liljegren, who just turned 25 a couple weeks ago, has been a bonafide NHLer for three seasons and grown into a key piece for the Leafs. He signed a two-year contract extension for $1.4 million per year and it is now set to expire this summer.
Liljegren has steadily risen up the depth chart over the past three seasons going from a pure third pair defender to getting time on the top powerplay unit and averaging just under 20 minutes per game this season.
This season Liljegren spent time on all three pairings, in many different roles. Mostly he played on the third line, and he put up very solid numbers overall.
He should be re-signed but what is the price? That is the most important question.
Going through lists of comparable players, it ranges from $2 million to $4 million per year. If I had to guess, I would assume he lands somewhere between $2.5 million and $3.5 million when looking at comparable players. Alex Carrier and Dante Fabbro both signed for $2.5 million on a one year deal at 26 years old.
Will Borgen signed for $2.7 million for two years at 26 and Evan Bouchard for $3.9 million for two years at 23. All four are right-shot defenders at similar ages who log similar minutes averaging between 18-20 minutes per night.
If the contract is for only a year or two expect it to be on the lower end of that. The Leafs could also try to get some nice cost certainty by gambling on a higher annual salary and locking him in long-term.
Alex Steeves
Since signing his ELC, Steeves has been one of the Toronto Marlies’ top scorers.
However, his scoring prowess has only resulted in seven total NHL games over the past three seasons as a call-up option. He has been surpassed on the depth chart by multiple players and has never really come close to cracking a full-time roster spot.
At 24, time is seemingly starting to run out on his NHL aspirations. He seems likely to move on when his contract expires and try his luck with another organization to become an everyday NHLer. It’s not inconceivable though that he sticks around one more year and could gain a new coaches good graces as a depth option.
Max Ellis
Ellis was an undersized winger (5-9, 172lbs) who the Maple Leafs signed as a free agent from the University of Notre Dame.
After signing a two-year entry-level contract in 2022, Ellis has struggled to find a consistent spot with the Marlies through injuries and spotty production.
He impressed in the Leafs’ pre-season games last year and in the early goings of the season producing six points in the first eight games to start the year.
Unfortunately, he finished the season by only scoring eight more points through the final 28 games he played. In total, he finishes his ELC with 14 goals and 34 points over 87 games.
The undersized winger likely moves on to another organization on a minor league contract or he could opt to take his talents to Europe.
Max Lajoie
Originally drafted in the fifth round, 133rd overall in 2016 by the Ottawa Senators, Lajoie has been a tweener in the NHL for years.
He was traded to Carolina in 2021 before signing as an unrestricted free agent with the Maple Leafs last summer.
He played 56 NHL games with the Senators in 2018-19 but has since been unable to hold onto an NHL job. He has played 21 total games in the NHL between three teams in the years since, including seven with the Leafs this past season.
He could stay on as a call-up option with the Leafs, the depth in the AHL never hurts. However, I would assume the Leafs do not tender a qualifying offer and make him a UFA once again to negotiate with the 31 other teams.
Keith Petruzzelli
Petruzzelli was drafted by the Detroit Red Wings in 2017 and at the time was seen as a solid goaltending prospect.
He spent the next four seasons with Qunnipiac University and was a standout netminder, being named a Hobey Baker finalist, and winning ECAC’s goaltender of the year and first all-star team honours in 2021.
The following season he signed a minor league contract with the Marlies where he played with the Newfoundland Growlers and looked like a hidden gem.
He played 27 games with the Growlers in 2021-22, posting a .927% save percentage (SV%) and being named goaltender of the week and month multiple times as well as ECHL all-rookie and second team all-star honours. He subsequently signed his two-year ELC in 2022, spending the majority of the past two years with the Marlies.
Since signing, he has slipped down the organizational depth chart. He has played 42 total games with the Marlies over the past two years, sporting a .888% SV% over that time.
Especially with the emergence of Dennis Hildeby and with both Russian goalie prospects Artur Akhtyamov and Vyacheslav Peksa battling for time this upcoming season, he likely gets pushed out of the mix and moves on. Although the goaltending depth never hurts so, he might be kept on with a minor league contract.
manual
The key takeaway is that the Leafs have plenty of depth throughout the organization that makes these decisions tough. All-in-All; I think the Leafs should let Ellis, Petruzzelli, and Lajoie walk. I would attempt to re-sign everybody else.