Way too early Atlantic division predictions for the Toronto Maple Leafs

It should be another tough year for the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Atlantic division. Florida doesn't look like they're headed for much of a fall off and Boston is strong once again, Tampa remains a top team and Ottawa, Buffalo and Montreal are all getting better.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are looking to improve on their third-place finish in the Atlantic division last season which eventually resulted in yet another first-round exit at the hands of the Boston Bruins.

With Ottawa adding a top goaltender for the first time with their current core they are threatening to finally make the playoffs. Over the past few years it's been obvious that Toronto, Tampa, Boston and Florida were going to make the Atlantic the toughest division in hockey, but this year - with the possible exception of Detroit - all the teams should be improving and getting pretty good. The Atlantic Division is due for a shake up and it looks like this year will be the year it happens.

The Leafs are going to have to fend off up and coming teams looking to snag a playoff spot from them and the other top teams in the Atlantic.

8. Montreal Canadiens

Last season the Canadiens finished eighth in the division with 76 points (All standings statistics from NHL.com).

There is a lot of hype around this forward core after the acquisition of Patrick Laine but right now I think it is overrated. Laine has dealt with injuries as well as mental health challenges throughout his career as well as being rather streaky when he does play.

Dach has dealt with his fair share of injuries in his career. Newhook is a nice piece and Slafkovsky has shown flashes of his potential but is still going through the development process. Eventually, I think Slafkovsky can live up to the big contract they gave to him and probably even outperform the cap hit but that is still at least a year down the road in my opinion. Suzuki is a great player and Caufield is also a good talent, but I'm still waiting for the statistical jump for him in a season.

Their defence core is decent, with a first pair of Mike Matheson and Kaiden Guhle, both of who are coming off pretty solid years. Lane Hutson is the star prospect for the Habs; as of now on DailyFaceoff.com, he is listed on the second pair. A full season of him in the NHL will be fun to watch. They still have young guys coming through the pipeline to fill roles on the blueline like their 2023 fifth-overall pick David Reinbacher along with their 2021 31st-overall pick Logan Mailloux.

Samuel Motembeault is coming off a decent season in between the pipes for Montreal where he posted a .903 save percentage, 18.39 goals saved above expected and a -0.9 goals saved above average. I'm curious to see how Montembeault would perform behind a better team (All advanced statistics from EvolvingHockey.com).

Ultimately, I think there will be an improvement with the Habs but not enough to move out of last place in the Atlantic. The future is bright in Montreal but it will be another year of losing.

7. Buffalo Sabres

The Sabres, currently in a 13-season-long playoff appearance drought, finished sixth in the Atlantic last season with 84 points.

This never-ending rebuild the Sabres find themselves in will continue into this season as they will drop a spot from last season and finish seventh in the division.

This Sabres team has pieces I like. JJ Peterka is coming off a strong sophomore season where he scored 28 goals (Stats from NHL.com), Cozens is coming off a tough year but has a lot of potential, Quinn had two major lower-body injuries last year, which limited him to 27 games played and Tage Thompson is looking to bounce back from a disappointing year after his breakout 2022-23 season. Along with those four, you also have Tuch, who has dealt with injuries throughout his career but is always a solid player and a young player with a lot of potential in Zach Benson. Benson is coming off a rookie year where he scored 11 goals and 19 assists for 30 points in 71 games. 

On the blue line, the Sabres have a star in Rasmus Dahlin and a great defenseman with an injury history, specifically concussion issues in Bowen Byram. If the Sabres can get a full year of healthy Bowen Byram that would be a huge boost to this roster. 2021 first-overall pick Owen Power is entering his third year in the league and is looking for his breakout. Mattias Samuelsson is a nice defenseman on the third pair but will need to stay healthy this season.

The goaltending situation in Buffalo has always had a weird vibe for me since Levi entered the picture. Levi was rushed into the league from college and to his credit, played well. This past season was a struggle for him and he split time between Rochester in the AHL and Buffalo. Last season Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen had a great year posting a .910 save percentage, 11.1 goals saved above average and a 22.46 goals saved above expected. Although he was good all year, it felt like the Sabres wanted Levi to be the starter.

Luukkonen signed a five-year deal with an average annual value of 4.75 million and is entering his first year of the deal. It will be interesting to see if he can live up to that deal and if Levi makes another step in his development.

I don't think the Sabres had a strong offseason. Ultimately, I look at the bottom six and find it rather underwhelming. If the top-six isn't clicking all year, I can see the scoring drying up and it becoming difficult for the Sabres to win games. McLeod was a decent add, even though I thought they lost the trade by giving away a top prospect in Matt Savoie. Bringing back Lindy Ruff as head coach also doesn't move the needle that much for me.

With so many players that have me concerned due to injury histories and a lack of additions to this forward core, I don't think the Sabres are going to finish higher than seventh in the division.

6. Detroit Red Wings

The Red Wings were in the race for a wild card spot all the way to the end last season. They ended up missing the playoffs off tie breakers with Washington and finished fifth in the Atlantic with 91 points.

While Detroit had a fun year last year and made things interesting I thought their offseason was confusing and disappointing. Yzerman brought in Vladimir Tarasenko, Erik Gustafsson, Cam Talbot, former Leaf Jack Campbell, former Leaf William Lagesson and Tyler Motte. They lost Jake Walman in a head-scratching trade where they had to attach a second-round pick to him to get him to San Jose. They also lost David Perron, Shayne Gostisbehere, former Leaf James Reimer, former Leaf Zach Aston-Reese, Robby Fabbri and Daniel Sprong.

The forward core is decent with some young guys like Lucas Raymond, who may be able to take another step as well as studs like Dylan Larkin. DeBrincat didn't even reach 30 goals last season which marks two straight years of him failing to score 30 goals in a full 82 games season. If Detroit wants to take another step he needs to find the form he had in the 2021-22 season, where he scored 41 goals in Chicago. Tarasenko and Kane are both older however, Kane is coming off a year where he still scored close to a point per game but at this point most of his value comes on the power-play. Their centre depth is weak with J.T. Compher as their second-line centre and that needs an upgrade.

On the back end, I like Seider and he can take another step. Simon Edvinsson looks like he is about to play his first full year of NHL hockey. It'll be interesting to see how the 2021 sixth-overall pick performs. As for the rest of it, I'm not a fan of Ben Chiarot and his 4.75 million dollar cap hit, Jeff Petry is an older right-hand shot who has a tough time in his own end and Erik Gustafsson is a solid puck-mover. Olli Maatta and Justin Holl will also slot into the lineup throughout the year(All salary statistics from PuckPedia.com). 

I expect Yzerman to trade Husso and dailyfaceoff.com currently has the tandem as Talbot and Lyon. Both Talbot and Lyon had a decent year last yearbutTalbot is another year older heading into the season at the age of 37. Lyon is fine and was big for Detroit last year. 

I don't think they improved enough in comparison to everybody around them in the division which is why they drop a spot lower from last year.

5. Ottawa Senators

Last season the Sens had another disappointing season where they finished seventh in the Atlantic with 78 points.

Ottawa had an interesting offseason, they had two big trades one where they traded away Joonas Korpisalo (retaining 25 percent of his deal), Mark Kastellic and a 2024 first-round pick in exchange for Linus Ullmark. They also acquired Nick Jensen and a 2026 third-round pick from the Washington Capitals in exchange for Jacob Chychrun.

The acquisition of Ullmark from the Boston Bruins should solidify the goaltending position for the Sens who have struggled to find one since Craig Anderson. Ullmark had a great year last year while splitting time with Jeremy Swayman where he posted a .915 save percentage, 13.37 goals saved above average and a 21.62 goals saved above expected (stats from EvolvingHockey.com). I liked this move for Ottawa.

head-scratchingThe Jensen trade was more head scratching for me. While Chychrun hasn't been what Ottawa expected Jensen is 33 years old and struggled last year in Washington. Jensen fills one of Ottawa's needs: a right-shot defenseman, but I'm still not a big fan of the move.

The Senators also added David Perron, Michael Amadio, former Leaf Noah Gregor as well as Nick Cousins. These adds helped strengthen the bottom six, which they did need.

They don't have many notable outgoing players aside from the guys they used in trades.

What makes me think Ottawa misses the playoffs yet again is the defence core. Sanderson is a great piece and a full healthy year of Artem Zub would be big for the Sens, while Tomas Chabot is a great puck mover who tends to win his minutes and drive play,

The rest of the blueline concerns me because players like Tyler Kleven and Jacob Bernard-Docker look to be their best options to fill out the blue-line. As I mentioned earlier Jensen struggled last year and I can't see him getting significantly better at the age of 33.

The Ullmark move was good and much-needed. If the Sens want to make the playoffs I still think they need to upgrade the blueline and they also need a fully healthy year from Josh Norris which they haven't had since he entered the league. Another big factor for this upcoming season is the coaching change from DJ Smith to Travis Green. Green wasn't great in Vancouver but we'll see if he will be able to turn the Sens around.

4. Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning finished fourth in Atlantic division in with 98 points and took home the first wild card spot.

This offseason has been eventful for Lightning General Manager Julien BriseBois. He traded away Tanner Jeannot for a fourth-round pick in 2024 and a 2025 second-round pick.

BriseBois then traded one of their cornerstones on the blue line, Mikhail Sergachev for J.J Moser, Conor Geekie, a 2024 seventh-round pick and a 2025 second-round pick. After those two big moves, he then let franchise icon and team captain Steven Stamkos walk to Nashville in free agency after a contentious offseason of contract discussions. Following those moves, BriseBois swung a trade to get the signing rights to superstar Jake Guentzel who he then signed to a seven-year deal with an AAV of 9 million dollars.

I think this is finally the year we see a real drop-off in Tampa. Their forward core is top-heavy and the defence core is pretty mediocre. They brought back Ryan McDonugh in the offseason but he is another year older. I thought it was the right move to move on from him the first time.

Hedman is still great but not as good as he used to be, J.J. Moser was a good addition, but the third pair with him and Nick Perbix isn't great. Cernak also struggled last year and faced injuries.

Really though, even if Tampa isn't the team they once were, they have so much star power and Guentzel, Kucherov and Point are three of the best forwards in the NHL, and they still have an elite defenseman and an elite goalie.

Even with these flaws I think their star power and the fact they still have Vasilevskiy will have them battling for a wild card spot.

3. Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs finished last year third in the Atlantic with 102 points.

Treliving made changes to the blue line adding Chris Tanev and Oliver Ekman-Larsson while letting T.J. Brodie, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Joel Edmundson walk. He also added Anthony Stolarz to be a tandem goalie with Joseph Woll while letting Ilya Samsonov walk.

The Leafs forward core is pretty top-heavy right now. Treliving couldn't keep Bertuzzi in Toronto due to the salary cap restrictions with Nylander and Matthews' new deals kicking in. Treliving couldn't add to the forward core and the blue line unless he made a move to clear salary off the roster. He didn't make any deal to do that so now we're stuck with a forward core with little depth.

The Leafs are going to need to see a jump in production from Matthew Knies as well as Bobby McMann to make this forward core effective. You can't expect Matthews to score 69 goals again so you're losing some goals there and you also lose 21 goals with the departure of Tyler Bertuzzi. Unless there are rookies like Easton Cowan who come in and have a great rookie year, they need to find a boost in production from players who were already on the roster. I also don't know if there will be a real effect with the change in captaincy.

Woll and Stolarz is going to be a question mark all year. Will Stolarz be able to handle a large jump in the number of games played? Will Woll be able to stay healthy this year? These are both gambles the front office took at the most important position on the team.

Ultimately, I think they've gotten better. The blueline is old and not anywhere close to as good as it was when Rielly was younger and both Muzzin and Brodie were stars, but as long as Tanev holds up it should be alright.

The Leafs elite forwards will once again assure them of a playoff spot and they may even be healthy when the playoffs roll around for once.

2. Florida Panthers

The Stanley Cup champions won the Atlantic last season with 110 points.

Florida did lose some pieces off their roster. Montour, Ekman-Larsson, Stenlund, Lomberg, Tarasenko, Cousins and Stolarz all left the roster this offseason. Their additions consisted of Nate Schmidt, Tomas Nosek, MacKenzie Entwistle, Jesper Boqvist, Adam Boqvist and Chris Dreidger.

The Panthers didn't lose much off of the forward core. Tarasenko was alright for them when he was acquired at the deadline. Stenlund, Lomberg and Cousins are bottom six players who are replaceable and Stolarz didn't play tons of games throughout the season.

The loss of Montour will hurt, but OEL won't be missed as he went to Toronto for an extreme overpayment. Forsling and Ekblad will ensure the Panthers still have a top blue-line, and they may have league's best mix of stars and depth up front.

There isn't much to say about this roster. They won the cup last year and retained all their biggest pieces. The forward core has quality players throughout the lineup and the blue line should still be solid. The goaltending should be solid yet again.

Florida will be a force to be reckoned with yet again this year, although there is some question to whether Barkov and Reinhart can repeat their magical seasons. Especially Renheart, as he played way, way above his head last year and it would be surprising if he continued to play at an MVP level.