Toronto Maple Leafs: Who Will be Their Playoff X-Factor?
The Toronto Maple Leafs have seven games remaining in the 2023-24 regular season and already clinched a playoff spot prior to their game last night against the Montreal Canadiens. Their final two games of the season, on April 16th (Florida Panthers) and April 17th (Tampa Bay Lightning), could have implications on the playoff standings.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are sitting in third place within the Atlantic Division with 95 points as of Saturday morning.
The Florida Panthers are in second place with 101 points, while the Tampa Bay Lightning are holding the first wildcard spot with 93 points. Tampa is trying to catch the Leafs, the Leafs are trying to catch the Panthers, and the Panthers are trying to catch the Boston Bruins, who hold first place in the Atlantic Division with 103 points.
A lot can happen in two weeks, so buckle up and enjoy the ride.
It will be interesting to see who the Leafs will play in the first round. On one hand, it would be nice to get revenge against the Panthers, who knocked the Leafs out in the second-round last season.
However, the Leafs have a dragon that needs slaying, and that dragon is the Bruins. The Leafs slayed one dragon last season when they defeated the Lightning. Will they find a way to slay another?
As we all know, playoff hockey is a different animal than regular-season hockey. Many factors can result in winning or losing a playoff series.
The Leafs have many skilled players who can score, but which players will be their x-factor? Who will be the player(s) who end up being the deciding factor in winning a series? Here is a look at who I think the Leafs x-factor could be.
Max Domi
Sure, Max Domi is not producing as much offense as many would like to see, but he still has 42 points in 75 games.
Not bad for a player who doesn't play on the team's top power-play unit. He has registered eight goals and 34 assists this season with an average of 13:43 minutes of ice time.
(All stats from hockey-reference.com)
Last season, during the playoffs with the Dallas Stars, Domi scored a lot, even if the Stars lost his minutes 5v5. He recorded three goals and ten assists for 13 points in 19 playoff games. Domi also had ten blocked shots and 11 hits in those 19 games.
The Leafs need players who can play well in the so-called "dirty areas," and Domi is one of those players.
Domi will fight and battle in front of the night, in the corners, and along the boards. He will drop the gloves and fight if he needs to. Domi does whatever it takes to win, and that attitude rubs off onto the rest of the team.
I think Domi will be a crucial player for the Leafs in the playoffs. He might not be the Leafs sole X-factor, but he will be one of them.
While the other team does what it can to limit players like Auston Matthews or William Nylander, it will be players like Domi will need to step up and produce. Hopefully, Domi will have a good playoff with the Leafs and get re-signed in the off-season.
Tyler Bertuzzi
Tyler Bertuzzi is close to having a 20-goal season with 40+ points.
Not bad, considering that he only had 13 points in his first 30 games with the Leafs. He's having a much more productive and consistent second half of his season. Bertuzzi has ten points in his last 13 games. With a knack for going to the net, Bertuzzi is a prime candidate to score rebounds or tip-in shots from the point.
Bertuzzi has four points in his last five games. He also has 12 hits in his last five games, so he's gaining playoff-type momentum at the right time.
Hopefully, he will be able to carry his momentum into the playoffs. Bertuzzi will be looked upon for his physical play, and offense come playoff time. Many playoff games are won on goals scored by players playing in tight near the opposition's net.
Last season, Bertuzzi got to experience the NHL playoffs for the first time. He registered five goals and five assists for ten points in seven games for the Bruins.
His playoff experience was cut short by the Panthers in round one. The Bruins lost three straight games after taking a 3-1 series lead. I'm sure Bertuzzi doesn't want to go through that again. Fans should look forward to him playing his best hockey once the playoffs start.
Bertuzzi could very well be the Leafs X-factor during the playoffs. Due to his contract, this could be a one-and-done for Bertuzzi with the Leafs, so I hope the Leafs get the best out of him.
Bobby McMann
Bobby McMann is having himself one heck of a season.
The 27-year-old McMann is playing in his first complete season at the NHL level. He has registered 14 goals and nine assists for 23 points in 51 games while playing an average of 11:36 minutes of ice time.
McMann has proven that he can score at the NHL level, and the Leafs will need his secondary scoring once the playoffs start.
One of the reasons why McMann has become so valuable to this Leafs team is not only his scoring ability but what he does without the puck.
Through 51 games, McMann has 18 blocked shots, 106 hits, and 20 takeaways compared to 12 giveaways. He has earned the trust of head coach Sheldon Keefe, and it's easy to see why.
Leafs GM Brad Treliving obviously likes the way McMann plays, that's why he re-signed him to a two-year deal worth $1.35 million a season. (Salary cap info from capfriendly.com)
This will be McMann's first taste of the NHL playoffs, so I don't expect him to have a big role early in the Leafs first-round series, but I think he will gain more ice time once he earns it.
Expect McMann to have a bigger impact in the series starting in game three or four. However, I would love for him to prove me wrong and have an immediate impact. He has more than enough potential to be an X-factor for the Leafs
Morgan Rielly
The Leafs will need offense generated from their defense during the playoffs. The Leafs blue-line is not built for offense, so they'll need to get everything they can out of Rielly.
Morgan Rielly is producing well this season, and the Leafs will need even more from him come playoff time. He has seven goals and 45 assists for 52 points in 66 games.
Rielly has three assists in his last five games, so there is still a chance he could reach 50 assists for the third time in his career.
Rielly is averaging 23:48 minutes of ice time this season, and during the playoffs, his workload could get even heavier. So, depending on how healthy the Leafs defense core is, I would think that Rielly will get one of the Leafs final two games off for rest. The Leafs will want him at 100% once the playoffs start.
As much as the Leafs will benefit from having players like Simon Benoit, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Joel Edmundson hitting every opposing player as often as possible, they still need defensemen like Rielly to get the puck up the ice quickly to generate plays and hopefully create offense.
If Sheldon Keefe and his staff, mainly Guy Boucher, can solve the Leafs recent power play struggles, then I expect Rielly to help the Leafs power play generate offense as well.
Rielly is the longest-active Leafs player on this roster (11 seasons), and he deserves to go on a long playoff run. He registered four goals and eight assists for 12 points in 11 playoff games last season. The Leafs will need similar output again this season.
Ilya Samsonov
No matter how a team is playing, it's their goaltender who is always the last line of defense.
The Leafs will need Ilya Samsonov to be at his best during the playoffs. He helped them defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning in round one last season but then fizzled in round two against the Panthers. If the Leafs play the Panthers in round one this season, it could be a good chance for Samsonov to seek redemption.
The Leafs could play the Panthers, Boston Bruins, or even the New York Rangers in round one.
The standings are too close right now to know who will be playing who just yet. All three teams will pose a challenge for the Leafs, but at the end of the day, Samsonov needs to shut the door and prevent the other team from scoring.
Samsonov is playing well right now, so hopefully, that will continue into the playoffs. He has a 21-6-7 record with a 3.06 GAA and a .892 SV% this season, but those stats are a bit deceiving due to Samsonov's poor start. He is having a much better second half of the season than the first half.
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He has won his last three starts and will be looking to make it four (if he gets the start) on Saturday when the Leafs play the Montreal Canadiens.