The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off of a brutal loss to the Boston Bruins, that was their sixth straight loss against the Bruins, and tonight they matchup with another Atlantic Division team they have struggled with over the past couple of seasons.
The Buffalo Sabres are 7-3 against the Toronto Maple Leafs over their last 10 head-to-head matchups and have beaten them in each of the last three outscoring them 19-10 in those three games.
The Sabres have quietly been one of the better teams in the NHL over the past couple of weeks, they have won seven of their last 11 games and have taken four of their last five games on the road.
The Maple Leafs have also been playing well recently,l regardless of their most recent loss to the Boston Bruins. They have won 14 of their last 20 games and are 4-2 in their last six games on home ice. The Leafs opened as big favorites tonight, as they should be against the Sabres.
Despite that, with the Maple Leafs goaltending and defensive issues I am not willing to back them at -185. Still, their offensive firepower combined with these issues makes the over 6.5 total look intriguing again.
Buffalo Sabres @ Toronto Maple Leafs Best Bet
Looking deeper into these last 10 head-to-head matchups, these two teams have combined for an average of 8.1 goals per game in these matchups and have gone over the game total in nine of the last 10 games they have gone head-to-head.
The Sabres have been in more games that have gone under recently, but they have gone over the total in two straight. Even though the Sabres have been playing lower-scoring games recently, I think the Leafs style of play is going to be the thing that will drive this game to go over.
Over the last 10 games, the Leafs have the highest scoring offence in the NHL averaging 4.36 goals per game, but have given up at least three goals in five of their last 10 games and have allowed three or more in five of their last 10 games and are averaging 3.6 expected goals against over their last five games.
Although not confirmed, Ilya Samsonov will likely be in the Maple Leafs net and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will likely be in for the Sabres. These guys have gotten shelled in their career in this head-to-head matchup. In three career starts against the Sabres. Illya Samsonov has a 6.61 goals-against-average and a .798 save percentage. Somehow Luukkonen's numbers are worse, he has made two starts against the Maple Leafs, in those games, he has a 12.37 goals-against-average and a .692 save percentage.
This has turned into a fun rivalry over the past couple of years, I expect another fun one here tonight as both teams are looking to bounce back from three-goal losses.
Game Total Over 6.5 (-108) DraftKings
A Maple Leafs Player Prop
William Nylander's shot attempts have been down since being put on a line with Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi. But this is a matchup Nylander has thrived in having five or more shots and eight or more attempts in four straight head-to-head matchups with the Sabres. (stats naturalsstattrick.com).
The Sabres are allowing 32.32 shots per game over their last 10 on the road and are allowing the fifth most shots per game to Right Wingers. Nylander has only covered this line in four of his last 10 games, but he has at least three shots in every game at home against a divisional opponent this season and has covered this six of the nine games he has played against the division at home.
William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots On Goal (+105)