Toronto Maple Leafs Second Half Predictions
Are the Toronto Maple Leafs a Stanley Cup Contender? Taking a look ahead at what to expect during the second half of the season.
The Toronto Maple Leafs begin the unofficial start of the second half of the season in an interesting position. They are firmly entrenched in a playoff spot, but are, at best, considered a peripheral Stanley Cup contender.
While they should once again reach 100 points, their success has been confounding. Their superstars, mainly Auston Matthews and William Nylander have led the way, but as a team the Toronto Maple Leafs have not been particularly dominant in any area.
With their erratic play, it is hard to get a handle on what type of team this is. The lack of consistency further muddles the picture for the Leafs decision makers.
President Brendan Shanahan, general manager Brad Treliving, and head coach Sheldon Keefe have much to ponder. What is the state of the roster? Should the Leafs make additions at the trade deadline? What is the floor and ceiling of this team?
Assessing The Leafs Roster
For better or worse, the Leafs have committed to their core of superstar players. Matthews and Nylander have met or exceeded expectations. Mitch Marner has had a slightly below-average season, but it's hard to be critical of his play. First-time All-Star Morgan Rielly has been the backbone of the defense, carrying over his fine play from last year's playoffs.
The problem for the Leafs has been the rest of the roster. The return from the Leafs off-season additions has been underwhelming.
Tyler Bertuzzi's strong advanced stats have not produced much actual production. 6 goals in 46 games in a top-six role does not cut it. Max Domi's contributions have also been limited and John Klingberg, perhaps due to injury, was a disaster. Ryan Reaves appears to have no place in the lineup.
Less-heralded additions, such as goaltender Martin Jones and defenseman Simon Benoit, have saved face for Treliving. They have both delivered much more than what was expected of them.
The Leafs are fine offensively with their stars up front, but depth scoring is a concern. Their defense has been a season-long concern and remains so. Each of their goaltenders has had moments of stellar play, but like the team in front of them, consistency is an issue.
The most intriguing individual narratives to follow in the second half revolve around Matthews and Nylander. Can Matthews become just the ninth player in NHL history, and first in over 30 years, to score 70 goals? Can Nylander live up to the heightened expectations that come with his new contract?
Individual Storylines to Watch For in The Second Half: Will Matthews Reach 70 Goals?
The most entertaining individual storyline to follow will be Matthews' pursuit of 70 goals. The Leafs sniper keeps giving fans a reason to watch.
Having already stuffed his mantle with multiple Rocket Richard trophies and a Hart trophy following his sixty-goal season in 2021-2022, Matthews has upped his game. His 40 goals in 46 games before the All-Star break led the NHL.
Thirty more goals in the second half are certainly plausible, but the games are about to get more defensive and tight-checking. For all his talents, opposing coaches are going to do their best to stop Matthews from beating them.
With the extra attention devoted to him down the stretch, Matthews will fall just short of the magic 70-goal mark. He will have to settle for a new Leafs franchise record of somewhere around 65 goals.
Another player to watch is Nylander. His mini-slump before the All-Star game happened to follow his monstrous contract extension. It could be a coincidence, but the longer the slump lasts, or should his second-half production dip, the more this becomes a story.
Nylander's bet on himself paid off, but new-found riches come with problems. He potentially has many years ahead of fending off scrutiny and the wrath of fans should his production not meet expectations.
The Leafs defense and their goaltending also have lots of questions to sort through.
Can Joseph Woll continue his early-season promising play once he returns? Will he stay healthy? Can Ilya Samsonov maintain his resurgence?
Martin Jones provides insurance, but one of Woll or Samsonov needs to grab the number one role and solidify the Leafs goaltending.
The Leafs hope on defense hinges on the aging Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie to provide important minutes on their blue line. Morgan Rielly must maintain his All-Star level play. The second quarter of the season Jake McCabe is needed instead of the first-quarter version.
With so many questions, should the Leafs be buyers or sellers at the NHL trade deadline?
Should The Leafs Be Buyers or Sellers at the Trade Deadline?
The Leafs have too many question marks surrounding their roster and not enough draft capital to be significant players at this year's NHL trade deadline.
Too many teams have passed them since the start of the season to risk future assets on a suspect roster. Even with a couple of additions, it's hard to imagine this team getting through the Boston Bruins and the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference.
The Western Conference has multiple teams that are likelier options than the Leafs to win a championship.
The Leafs need to be prudent. They should hang on to prospects like Fraser Minten and Easton Cowan along with their high draft picks.
What's the End Result For the Leafs This Season?
The ceiling for this edition of the Leafs is third place in the Atlantic Division. Despite holding games-in-hand on the Bruins and Panthers, the Leafs don't seem capable of catching either team.
They have yet to have a significant sustained winning streak or consecutive game-point streak. Without either, they won't catch the Bruins or Panthers.
The floor for this team is a wild-card spot. The Leafs have allowed the Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit Red Wings back in the picture for third in the division, but they do have games-in-hand on both of those teams as well.
The Leafs have also created some separation from the cluster of playoff-contending teams in the Metropolitan Division. It would be a disaster and unexpected if the Leafs don't make the playoffs.
A wild-card position and facing the New York Rangers or Carolina Hurricanes might be a preferred playoff route for the Leafs. Either would be a more favorable matchup than facing the Bruins or Panthers.
Looking at the big picture, this does not look like the year for the Toronto Maple Leafs. An upcoming increase in the salary cap and Brodie and Giordano coming off the books makes next offseason the time to reset the defense.
The Leafs star forwards can soon be surrounded by the promise and entry-level contracts of Minten and Cowan. Starting next year, and the 2-3 following years, will be the Leafs best window of contention.
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Leafs fans don't want to hear "Wait until next year!", but now is not the time to go all in.