Toronto Maple Leafs Prospects: Risers and Fallers 2024
The Toronto Maple Leafs prospect cupboard is relatively well stocked, despite lacking truly elite talent, due to an absence of high draft slots. For a club that has been competing for the Stanley Cup and drafting low for years now, their situation, while not great, is better than it could be.
It has also taken a hit with some recent graduates the past couple years as Joseph Woll, Nick Robertson, and Matthew Knies have all made the Toronto Maple Leafs and left their "prospect" t ags behind. Aside from them, there have also been players like Pontus Holmberg and Bobby McMann who have graduated from "prospect" status.
The club was able to add eight players to their prospect pool earlier this summer at the 2024 NHL Draft. In the first round, they added defenseman Ben Danford, then all the way in the fourth round added defenseman Victor Johansson. They then added: Miroslav Holinka, Alexander Plesovskikh, Timofei Obvintsev, Matt Lahey, Sam McCue, and Nathan Mayes.
The NHL's annual rookie tournaments are under way and with training camps just around the corner, I felt it would be as good a time as any to take a look at the Leafs prospect pool and see where players stand, who has risen and fallen over the past year.
Graduates
As I mentioned before, there were a few key prospects that officially graduated and now should be considered bonafide NHL players.
Matthew Knies
After signing his entry-level contract at the end of the 2022-23 season, he dressed for the final few regular season games and then he got his first taste of playoff action. He looked like a bull in a china shop there and despite having his postseason cut short due to injury, he was arguably one of the best players on a nightly basis.
This past year was his rookie season and after playing in 87 combined games between the playoffs and regular season, it’s safe to say he is an NHLer and no longer a prospect.
Nick Robertson
Although Robertson made his NHL debut in the 2020 playoffs, he had yet to secure a roster spot until this past season. Between injuries and demotions, he was held to just 31 regular season games over the course of three seasons. In 2023-24 despite being a healthy scratch at times, he still managed to suit up 56 times and score at one of the highest rates on the team. Although it was reported that he has requested a trade, he is for now a member of the organization and is included in the graduates section, having just re-signed last week.
Joseph Woll
The 25-year old netminder entered last season as the presumptive starting or tandem goalie, despite having only played 15 NHL games between the regular season and playoffs. However, this past season he was able to play in 25 regular season games and only three playoff games due to injuries. He would have likely played at least 41 games had he been healthy and fingers crossed he can be this season, as he will be looked upon to be a vital player in the team's crease.
Pontus Holmberg
Although Holmberg played nearly 40 games in 2022-23, his demotion to the Marlies later in the year called his NHL future into question. So too did his 11 game stint to start the year in 2023-24, but he was eventually called up and played 54 games as well as all seven playoff games for the Leafs. He is currently penciled in as a bottom-six forward for the team and has been a great story as a late round gem for the club.
Toronto Maple Leafs Prospects: Risers
This past season saw many prospects take impressive steps forward; Whether that be awards won, massive jumps in production, or adapting well to new leagues.
Easton Cowan
Possibly nobody has risen the prospect ranks to such a degree as Easton Cowan has this year. He went from a player that was considered a confusing pick by almost everybody when he was drafted just over a year ago to being award the OHL’s Most Outstanding Player award and playoff MVP. If we did a redraft of the 2023 Draft, Cowan would be a no doubt top-15 or 20 pick and potentially even higher. He looks set to take a run at making the Leafs’ opening night lineup and could be a legitimate NHL contributor for the team next year.
Nikita Grebyonkin
Although I have reservations about Grebyonkin making the show this year, the fact that it is even a possibility proves just how far he has come from being a fifth round selection just two years ago. After winning KHL Rookie of the Year in 2023, he took another step in role and production this season en route to a Gagarin Cup victory by his team, Metallurg Magnitogorsk. He went from an impressive 26 points in 52 games split between Metallurg and Amur Khabarovsk to 41 points in 67 games, a difference of 0.5 points-per-game to 0.61 points-per-game.
Topi Niemela
Although I had reservations last season, Niemela was able to not only avoid looking out of place in his first season in North America, but he continued to improve as the season went on. His high hockey IQ was on full display with the Marlies as he was able to produce 39 points in 68 games, leading all defensemen in scoring while showing sound abilities on the defensive side. This season provided a great foundation for the young Finn to hopefully build from in future years, eventually earning a call-up to the big club.
Ryan Tverberg
Tverberg has defied the odds at every level, he went from a relative unknown seventh round pick playing Junior A hockey to now a productive minor league forward. If that is the peak that Tverberg hits, it is a relative success given his draft slot but his current trajectory is aimed much higher.
He racked up a nice 69 points in 85 career NCAA games including back-to-back 30+ point years in his final two seasons. At only 22, he broke onto the scene with the Marlies scoring 32 points in 46 games and was able to become a lethal forward in the teams top-six. His aggressive and pesky style of play makes him a wildcard going forward but for now, he keeps trending upwards.
Toronto Maple Leafs Prospects: Risers, continued
Noah Chadwick
To be transparent, the Chadwick pick was very concerning when it was made. All of the scouting reports said that he had an underrated offensive game but his skating is a real issue. Mix in his large frame and he looked like a prototypical Leafs miss from the mid-2010's. Fortunately, the early returns look positive as Chadwick found his scoring touch, breaking out from scoring 20 points in his draft year to 56 this past season ranking tied for third in defensemen scoring amongst first or second year draft eligible WHLers. If he can figure the skating out, there just might be a player here.
Artur Akhtyamov
The Maple Leafs goaltending pool took a major step forward this year with the emergence of Dennis Hildeby, who I will touch on later. Another goalie prospect who made waves this year was 2020 fourth rounder, Artur Akhtyamov. He was called up to play for Ak Bars Kazan of the KHL to fill-in for injury issues between the pipes. There, he impressed posting a .921 SV% through 17 games and continued to show well in the second tier VHL.
Dennis Hildeby
Dennis Hildeby had arguably the best case scenario rookie season you could expect. He came over and played his first pro season in North America and was able to take the reigns as the Marlies’ starter. He played in 41 games for the Marlies, posting a 21-11-7 record and a .913 SV%.
This season alone has taken Hildeby from a relatively overlooked prospect in the system to the top goaltending prospect in many people's eyes. He just turned 23-years-old in August and it would not be surprising if he ends up logging a few games with the Maple Leafs this season should injuries or performance play a factor. Even if he doesn't he has at least a couple seasons before the pressure should be on him to make the jump. (stats nhl.com).
Fallers
The fallers category this season, mainly consists of players who are at risk of hitting a glass ceiling with their time running out as legitimate prospects. There are also players who have
Nick Abruzzese
Originally drafted in 2019, Abruzzese has been a prolific scorer at every level. He was drafted as a double overager from the USHL’s Chicago Steel where he lead the entire league in scoring. Then, the following season he attended Harvard University and was tied for third in scoring in the entire NCAA and lead all freshman.
He was named to Team USA’s roster at the 2022 Winter Olympics and was tied for second in team scoring. A few months later he left college and signed his entry-level deal with the Leafs. He played nine games with the Leafs recording his first NHL goal and point. Since then, he has been a top-six forward on the Marlies and has only played two NHL games, recording two more assists.
Despite a slight uptick in production from 0.7 points-per-game to 0.73 this past year, Abruzzese was not called up at any point. He also has not seemed to take the necessary steps to force himself onto the NHL roster for next year. Unfortunately in the world of prospects if you’re not progressing, you’re regressing and at 25 years old, he is in a do-or-die spot for his NHL future.
Alex Steeves
Similar to Abruzzese, Steeves has been impressive but stagnant for the last few seasons, adapting to the professional game from College quite well. He has finished as a top-three Marlies scorer for each of the past three seasons and has been able to not look out of place in his brief NHL stints.
Despite this, he was only able to crack the roster one game last year and with a large logjam in front of him, it seems like a tall task for him to crack the roster. All of these mixed in with the fact that multiple players have seemingly leaped over him on the depth chart already over the past few seasons, do not bode well for Steeves. Hopefully, he can impress the new coach and see an increased opportunity this year after signing a one-year extension last month.
Vyacheslav Peksa
Peksa experienced some major growing pains this past year and as a combination of his performance as well as Hildeby's meteoric rise and Akhtyamov's impressive KHL run, Peksa seems to have fallen quite a bit down the depth chart. He played 19 games with the Newfoundland Growlers of the ECHL and posted a 5-11-1 record and a .890 SV%.
He ranked dead last in terms of save percentage and games played of all three Growlers netminders to play 10 or more games. There has been quite a bit of turnover in the Leafs goaltending pipeline, making it hard to project where he will play this season. As of right now, he likely finds himself back in the ECHL with the Leafs' new affiliate, the Cincinnati Cyclones where he will hope to take on the starting role and have a bounce back year.
Wyatt Schingoethe
Listed as a defensively-minded center, Schingoethe unsurprisingly does not produce a lot with only a single goal and six total points through 56 games with Western Michigan of the NCAA. However, this lack of production calls his viability as a prospect into question, given in most instances, even the best defensive players in the NHL are capable of producing in the lower levels. As a seventh round pick in 2020, his NHL future was already slim but unless he can find another gear, it seems almost nonexistent at this point.
Regardless of the fallers, there are still quite a number of legitimate NHL prospects throughout the pool and it is not necessarily an indictment on an individual players NHL outlook. This list is more to keep track of their trendlines and see where each player is at in their development curve.
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Progress is not always linear as we all know and there is definitely the possibility that these players can still become legitimate and successful NHL players in the future.