Toronto Maple Leafs Possible Playoff Match Ups In Round One

Maple Leafs Need To Avoid Round 1 Matchup With Bruins

Now, I said that the Panthers were the better matchup for the Maple Leafs, but the Leafs do match up better statistically against the Bruins.

The Bruins are not as strong as the Panthers in puck possession categories, which would be nice to match up with, considering one of the Leafs biggest weaknesses is breaking the puck out of their end.

However, since the start of the 2023 calandar year, the Bruins have dominated the Leafs winning all seven head-to-head matchups in regulation and outscoring the Leafs 24-13 in those games.

What is even more concerning is the Maple Leafs have been outscored 8-2 in the last two head-to-head matchups, showing they are no closer to figuring out how to beat this team.

I don't think it is worth diving too deep into the advanced analytics here because the Bruins goaltending advantage in this series can defy any statistical advantage the Toronto Maple Leafs may have.

Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark were by far and away the best goaltending tandem in the NHL again this season with Ullmark ranking eigth in the NHL and Swayman ranking 10th in the NHL in goals saved above expected among goalies who have played a minimum of 800 minutes this season (via NaturalStatTrick).

Luckily for the Maple Leafs, this matchup against the Bruins is pretty unlikely, as the Panthers would need to gain a minimum of three points on the Panthers in three games to take the division lead.

The Bruins have a much better defensive group and goaltenders than the Maple Leafs; they are built to win in multiple ways, whereas the Leafs are built to out-score teams. I do not see the Maple Leafs being able to do this against Jeremy Swayman or Linus Ullmark.