Toronto Maple Leafs: Evaluating the Stanley Cup Prospects of the Canadian Teams
Preseason prognostications had the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers as the top choices to end Canada's Stanley Cup drought.
The pause of the NHL's schedule for the holiday break presents a good time to reexamine the prospects of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Oilers along with the other Canadian team contenders.
Most NHL teams have surpassed thirty games played and have settled into their respective spots in the standings. A significant amount of the schedule has been completed so that a fair determination can be made on each team's strengths and weaknesses.
The current Stanley Cup odds still has the Leafs and Oilers with the best chances of bringing Lord Stanley back to Canadian soil. This, despite the dreadful start to the season by the Oilers, and the Leafs somehow gathering points in many games where the numbers suggested they shouldn't have.
Evaluating the Stanley Cup Prospects of the Canadian Teams
Somewhat surprising has been the play of the Vancouver Canucks and Winnipeg Jets. Preseason predictions suggested they were a long shot for a championship. Both were considered fringe playoff teams, with +5000 odds for a title, behind 17 other teams.
The Calgary Flames are playing closely to their preseason expectations, a borderline playoff team and down the list of contenders.
Not much was expected from the Montreal Canadiens this year, but they have pleasantly surprised with their play and place in the standings.
This was the year many expected the Ottawa Senators to climb the standings and challenge for a playoff spot. Instead, they have languished near last place in the Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference for most of the season. Plus, they fired their coach to try and right the ship.
Barring a drastic turnaround during the second half of the year, which rarely happens, the Leafs, Oilers, Jets, or Canucks will be carrying the hopes of the nation when the playoffs begin.
What have the first thirty-plus games shown us about each team? What are their strengths and weaknesses? Most importantly, which, if any, of the teams can contend for a championship?
The Winnipeg Jets
The offseason in Winnipeg brought in a significant change to the Jets roster. Long-time captain Blake Wheeler accepted a free-agent deal with the New York Rangers and the team traded centre Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Los Angeles Kings.
With such notable turnover to the lineup, not much was expected from the Jets. Their ceiling would likely be a wild card playoff entry, yet, so far this season they have overachieved.
The Jets find themselves in third place in the Central Division with a .672 points percentage that ranks sixth in the NHL.
Jets Strengths
In most traditional statistics categories the Jets shine. They rank in the top ten in goals-for per game, goals-against per game, and goal differential. (All stats courtesy of nhl.com)
The Jets Corsi-For percentage and Goal-Differential at 5 vs 5 also rank in the top ten league-wide.
Veteran center Mark Scheifele has rebounded from an off-year in 2022-23 and leads the team in scoring. Defenseman Josh Morrisey has carried over his strong play from a year ago to anchor the Jets blue line.
Young players Cole Perfetti and Gabe Vilardi, part of the return from the Dubois trade, have helped the team withstand the injury to top goal scorer Kyle Connor.
The biggest strength of the Jets is goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. He is a strong candidate for the Vezina trophy, a top-five goalie who can singlehandedly carry the team to victory. He is the type of goalie that a potential first-round playoff opponent would want to avoid.
Jets Weaknesses
The Jets most noticeable weakness is their special teams. Both their power play and penalty-killing rank in the lower third of the league. The Jets power play ranks 21st at 18.2 percent. Their shorthanded success rate of 75.0 ranks 26th.
A less perceptible Jets weakness is their 5th-ranked shooting percentage on all shot attempts. Aside from proven sniper Connor, as a whole, many of the Jets are finding the net at above-expected numbers, which may not be sustainable.
Overall Jets Outlook Moving Forward
A team with Hellebuyck in the net can never be discounted in a playoff series, but the Jets play in the same division as heavy Cup favorites the Colorado Avalanche, and perennial darkhorse contender the Dallas Stars.
The Jets ceiling is a third-place finish in the Central and a first-round upset, should the Stars be their opponent.
The Vancouver Canucks
Only nine teams had longer odds to win the Stanley Cup than the Canucks, according to some preseason predictions.
While they are still not considered strong contenders for a title, the Canucks have increased their chances and garnered some attention with their early season play.
The Canucks are currently ahead of the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights and lead the Pacific Division with a league-leading 49 points. Their .700 points percentage is tied for second.
Center J.T. Miller, Brock Boeser, and defenseman Quinn Hughes have led the resurgent Canucks to unexpected heights over the first third of the season.
Canucks Strengths
The Canucks traditional stats are eye-popping. They have a plus-47 goal differential, 15 better than the runner-up Los Angeles Kings. They rank first in goals per game at 3.86, while ranking second in average goals against per game at 2.51.
Their star players compare favorably to most teams around the league.
Right winger Boeser has hovered around the league leaders in goals for most of the season. Hughes, at the ripe age of 24 is a serious Norris trophy candidate. The two of them, along with center Elias Pettersson, are among the NHL's top point-getters.
In goaltender Thatcher Demko they have a legitimate, top-ten starter. Coach Rick Tocchet has reinvigorated the franchise, as much of the Canucks improvement has come from internal development.
Canuck Weaknesses
Some of the Canucks 5 vs 5 advanced analytics are middling. They rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals percentage, Corsi For percentage and expected goal differential.
Their penalty-killing of 77.8 ranks 23rd. A key special teams goal for or against can make the difference in a closely-contested playoff game.
Overall Canucks Outlook Moving Forward
The Canucks have been a great story so far this season and they do have some players with playoff experience, but a look at the top of their division reveals stiff competition.
The Canucks should cruise to a spot in the Stanley Cup playoffs, but an unlikely upset victory in the first round is the best they can hope for.
The Edmonton Oilers
With a lineup that has superstar Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers were considered a top-five preseason contender to capture the Stanley Cup.
The 2022-2023 postseason saw them bow out to the eventual Cup champion Golden Knights in Round 2. With that respectable result, more was expected entering the 2023-2024 season.
The Oilers responded by falling flat on their face. They bumbled their way to a 5-12-1 start and the second-worst record in the NHL. A coaching change, along with improved play, helped them win 10 out of 13 games before the break to return to the periphery of the playoff race.
Interestingly, despite the slow start, only 7 teams currently have shorter odds than the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup.
Oilers Strengths
The Oilers greatest strength is the presence of McDavid. He is capable of dominating a hockey game like no other player on the planet. A slow start (for him) to the season was followed by his usual excellence. It's not a coincidence that wins followed.
The Oilers traditional stats are underwhelming. They rank 5th with a 3.45 goals-for-per-game average and their power play ranks 5th at 26.2%, but their penalty-killing ranks 25th at 78.0% and their goals-against-per-game average of 3.42 is 25th.
A close look at the Oilers analytical numbers reveals superiority in many areas. Encompassing the most important analytical categories at 5 vs 5, the Oilers rank 2nd league-wide. This is higher than the Leafs (10th), Canucks (11th), and Jets (13th).
The numbers show that the Oilers are well above the league average in many areas. They generate more chances and much more high-danger chances than their opposition.
Oilers Weaknesses
The analytical dominance of the Oilers has not manifested itself in the standings. Part of the reason is that they have a below-league-average shooting percentage and the opposition capitalizes on their high-danger chances at a much more successful rate.
Despite close to a plus-100 advantage in high-danger opportunities for and against at 5 vs 5, the Oilers are -2 in high-danger goals for and against.
That segue ways nicely to the Oilers greatest weakness. Their goaltending has been atrocious. Big-ticket free agent Jack Campbell was demoted after he cleared waivers. He is trying to find his game playing in the AHL.
Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard are currently trying to give the Oilers some semblance of capable NHL goaltending. Combined the trio has a .885 season save percentage in all situations and .905 at 5 vs 5, well below the league-average of .918.
Overall Oilers Outlook Moving Forward
The Oilers are a team no one will want to face should they make the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs. Should they get average goaltending from their incumbents for the rest of the year, or find the solution on the trade market, the Oilers could be the next wild-card team that goes on a run to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Toronto Maple Leafs
For all of their confounding and indifferent play over the first thirty-plus games of the season, the Toronto Maple Leafs find themselves in second place in the Atlantic Division, trailing the first-place Boston Bruins by only 4 points with a game in hand.
There has been much talk about their inability to win in regulation over the first few months of the season. Until recently, they languished in the bottom five teams in regulation wins.
Contrary to this, the Toronto Maple Leafs have proven very difficult to beat during regulation time, with only 8 losses. Only the Bruins and Kings have fewer.
The Leafs have also had a penchant for comeback victories, and scoring game-tying goals with their goalie pulled for an extra attacker.
Toronto Maple Leafs Strengths
The Leafs ability to score remains upper-level. Their goals-for-per-game of 3.58, is third in the league. Their power play percentage of 26.4 ranks 4th.
Despite the Leafs decline in some analytical areas at 5 vs 5 (Corsi-For percentage, expected-goals percentage), a closer look at the numbers reveals a significant distinction in one area.
The Leafs generate slightly more high-danger chances than their opposition at 5 vs 5, but they make good on these opportunities. The Leafs have scored 36 high-danger goals while giving up only 22 high-danger goals. The league average for both is 28.
NHL goal-scoring leader Auston Matthews and his current shooting percentage of 21.4 have certainly helped in this area. As a team, the Leafs shooting percentage is above the league average.
The skillset of Matthews, Mitch Marner, and a career year from William Nylander has kept the Toronto Maple Leafs near the top of the standings while they have acclimated new players into their lineup.
Ilya Samsonov has struggled in the net, but the play of Joseph Woll, before he was injured, and Martin Jones, filling in for Woll, should not be overlooked. Their play has earned points for the Leafs on nights they were undeserving.
Toronto Maple Leafs Weaknesses
The Toronto Maple Leafs defense has been their biggest area of concern since the season started. The first thirty games have done nothing to alleviate the problem.
Morgan Rielly is the Leafs most important player. Without him, the team's blue line would be a disaster. The gamble on John Klingberg did not work. Timothy Liljegren and Mark Giordano were injured.
William Lagesson and Simon Benoit have provided short-term relief for the Leafs on defense, but they are not long-term solutions for a Stanley Cup contending team.
Overall Leafs Outlook Moving Forward
It is hard to envision the Leafs winning a title without an addition or two on the blue line, but at what cost? The promise shown by prospects Fraser Minten and Easton Cowan should give general manager Brad Treliving pause when trade deadline discussions begin.
The Leafs, with their stars, are capable of winning any playoff series. Woll looks promising in goal, but he is inexperienced and has an injury history.
The Toronto Maple Leafs can cause damage in the playoffs and an extended run is possible, but they still have too many questions with their defense and bottom six forwards to go all the way.
What Are Canada's Cup Chances?
The Stanley Cup is the hardest trophy to win in professional sports. It is a grueling, physical quest over multiple months. Victorious teams almost always can play a variety of styles.
The winner must overcome the randomness of bounces that don't go your way and the mental grind of heartbreaking defeats or series deficits.
The Canucks and Jets have been great stories so far this season, but deep postseason runs are unlikely. Both teams appear to be playing well above their head at the moment, and the statistics do not support a continuation of their current records.
That said, weird things can happen and teams do occasionally outperform what the stats say they should do.
The Edmonton Oilers have a hole to dig out of in the standings and goaltending issues to overcome. A goaltending question is one problem you don't want to have heading into the playoffs. Still, their roster is excellent and any goalie can get hot and go on a run. You also have to assume that their management will add a goalie at some point.
The Leafs defense is nowhere near championship-caliber. Plus, they have a colossal negative history to overcome. As constructed, they do not appear to be a serious contender.
Next. The Top 5 Defensemen in the NHL. The Top 5 Defensemen in the NHL. dark
As of today, the Canadian Stanley Cup contenders have too many questions and concerns to be taken seriously for a title.