Toronto Maple Leafs 2024 Free Agency Targets Miss The Mark, So Far
The Toronto Maple Leafs and GM Brad Treliving have been very active in the early days of free agency,
The Toronto Maple Leafs entered the 2024 NHL Free Agent market with roughly $13 million in capspace. The needs were clear: A starting goalie, at least one or two defensemen preferably right-handed, and a third-line centre.
The Toronto Maple Leafs were left with only $13 million after signing some extensions.
Forward Max Domi signed for four years and $3.75 million annual average value (AAV) and defenseman Timothy Liljegren for two years and $3 million AAV.
It will not impact their cap situation this year but the team also signed goaltender Joseph Woll for three years at a $3.66 million AAV.
The team also announced they had re-signed Matt Murray for one-year at $875,000 but as a third-string goalie I have him playing with the Toronto Marlies next year and his caphit would not count.
Tyler Bertuzzi is not returning after signing with Chicago.
After last years mixed bag free agency, Brad Treliving entered this period with a full season under his belt and with a need to get things right.
Chris Tanev, RHD
Contract: Six-years, $4.5 million AAV
There seemed to be a group of five or six legitimate top-four defensemen that were entering free agency.
Brady Skjei, Chris Tanev, Nikita Zadorov, Matt Roy, Brett Pesce, and Sean Walker. The Leafs decided to get ahead of the market by acquiring the negotiating rights to Tanev. It was reported soon after that the team would look to sign Tanev to a long-term contract in order to keep his AAV down.
The result: A whopping six-year deal carrying a $4.5 million caphit. When looking at most of the players listed above, the AAV comes in below market value but at the cost of signing a 34-year-old injury prone defenseman to a contract that takes him until he is 40.
Over the past two seasons, he has missed 24 games of action due to injury and as I mentioned, he has a long history beyond that.
It is heavily speculated that by the end of the contract Tanev will likely be lounging on the beaches of “Robidas Island”. However, NHL insider Frank Seravalli seemed to indicate on twitter that the league may be closely monitoring contracts that are signed with this expectation.
It would be hard to prove intent in this case but it is something to keep in mind.
In the meantime, the Leafs should be getting one of the games best shutdown defenders to likely pair with Morgan Rielly. It is a good gamble to make but how quickly he declines will be the deciding factor on whether or not this contract ages poorly.
Overall, I like the signing and think it is a good “all-in” move.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, LHD
Contract: Four-years, $3.5 million AAV
At one point, OEL was one of the games premier puckmovers, a consistent 15-20 goal and 40-50 point player.
Now, he is a solid depth defender who played quite well in a third-pair sheltered role with significant powerplay time on the Cup winning Florida Panthers.
Apparently, Treliving and Co. liked what they saw and decided to lock him up on a long-term contract.
It is unclear why OEL was given as much term (four years) and a not-insignificant caphit at $3.5 million.
In Toronto, he will likely play a second or third pair role with limited powerplay time, likely fighting Timothy Liljegren for secondary PP minutes.
His puckmoving ability is welcomed of course but the Leafs could have gotten a player like Erik Gustafsson or Shayne Gostisbehere who signed for two years at $2 million AAV and three years $3.2 million AAV instead.
Ekman-Larsson will be 33 by the start of next season and as history has shown, betting on a player longterm who is already well into his thirties and on the decline is not the smartest investment.
Anthony Stolarz, G
Contract: Two-years, $2.5 million AAV
After it was announced that the Leafs had locked up Joseph Woll to a three-year deal worth $3.66 million starting in 2025-26, the team signed his partner for a two year contract carrying a $2.5 million AAV.
The 6-6 netminder has been one of the better backup goalies for the past few seasons between the Anaheim Ducks and Florida Panthers.
This has lead many to link him to the Maple Leafs as a potential option between the pipes for quite some time.
Stolarz has averaged a .913 SV% through 74 games the past three seasons. Throughout his career he has played in 108 NHL games with a .915 SV%.
To add, his quality starts are .578% over his career. If he can maintain his career average with the Leafs, he may prove to be the most dependable backup/1B netminder Leafs nation has seen in the past couple decades.
There are obvious risks associated with riding such an inexperienced tandem but it seems like a worthwhile gamble to make that these two goalies can at least provide league-average netminding. These are the types of bets that you need to make when you are tight against the cap.
I think it was a good signing by Leafs management.
Jani Hakanpaa, RHD
Contract: Two-years, $1.5 million AAV
Hakanpaa is 6-7 and 222lbs and plays how you’d expect.
He is a physical shutdown defender who specializes on the penalty-kill. His two-year $1.5 million AAV deal is not costly and he should be able to provide sound defensive play in a bottom pair role.
He will not be looked upon to provide much offensive support but he does possess a powerful shot from the point which could help the Leafs score more “greasy goals” as has been a priority.
All-in-all Hakanpaa’s contract is about as inoffensive as you can get.
The term is fairly short and the AAV is not too high given what he can provide. As long as the Leafs deploy him responsibly, there is no reason to worry about his game.
He also comes in much lower than Joel Edmunson ($3.85M AAV) or Ilya Lyubushkin ($3.25M AAV).
Like Tanev, there are some injury concerns for the defender.
Last offseason, he was rumored to be undergoing knee surgery but ultimately did not go under the knife.
This season, he was sidelined in mid-march and never suited up again for the rest of the year and underwent arthroscopic knee surgery recently. This has caused some speculation that the deal may be pending a physical because the Leafs have yet to officially announce the signing.
Depth Signings
On day two, it was announced that Treliving followed up these additions with a trio of depth signings.
Defensemen Dakota Mermis, Philippe Myers, and forward Cedric Pare were all signed too one-year, two-way contracts worth the minimum of $775,000.
The moves Treliving has made thus far in free agency shows where his priorities lie. As of right now, the Leafs have eight defensemen signed next year that make over $1 million.
In that group, only one defender is below 6-1, Timothy Liljegren. This again shows that the GM has put emphasis on making his D-core an imposing force with a reliance on size.
On an individual basis, most of these signings are not bad and are actually welcomed additions. Although, I do disagree with the OEL signing.
However, when adding them all together, these players take up a total of $12 million against the cap. They also miss one of the more glaring weaknesses on the Leafs depth chart: Offense.
A problem that has plagued the club for years in the playoffs is their inability to consistently produce the thing that wins games, goals. The team needs more secondary scoring and none of the moves have addressed that glaring weakness. The loss of Tyler Bertuzzi and possibly Nick Robertson further hurts this and has definitely hurt them upfront.
Last year, the Leafs ranked second in goals throughout the regular season with 303 but their core four of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares accounted for 164 of those goals alone and no other player eclipsed the 20 goal mark on the roster.
This past year in the playoffs that offense dried up and the team only scored a total of 12 goals through seven games and their powerplay percentage was 4.8%. The depth scoring has been a problem for multiple years now and it should be prioritized more than it has been.
Something will have to happen over the next few months to clear cap room, whether that is trading at least one of: Connor Timmins, David Kampf, and Calle Jarnkrok or somebody else.
The Leafs will need to add offensive punch into their middle-six and hope that their young players take a step. Matthew Knies has shown great promise and if he can build from his 35-point rookie year, he could help make up some of their losses.
Additionally, Easton Cowan and Fraser Minten could both make the opening night lineup and if they can stick, they should be able to provide some cheap secondary scoring for the team. Cowan specifically took major steps this year in a big role with the London Knights, capturing OHL playoff MVP and the OHL’s Most Outstanding Player of the Year award.
In recent years, we have seen players follow a similar trajectory and explode shortly after like; Mitch Marner, Wyatt Johnston, Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, and Alex DeBrincat.
All Contract Information via PuckPedia.com. All Stats Via NHL.com
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It is a good thing that Treliving has made tangible upgrades on the backend. But, it seems like he is doing it at the expense of the group upfront, which as history has shown, may not be wise.