Toronto Maple Leafs 2024 Defensemen Trade Deadline Targets

So much ink has been spilled covering the Toronto Maple Leafs defensive woes for years, this season there is actually merit to those claims.

So far this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs rank 24th in expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) and 16th in actual goals against.

For reference, they ranked 13th and fourth in those statistics last year, respectively. This, combined with the extensive list of injuries makes acquiring a defenseman at the deadline a high priority. (All Stats and Information Via Hockey-reference.com and Evolving-hockey.com).

Luckily, as is the case every year, there is a fairly large market available and the Leafs brass should be able to find a fit somewhere.

There have been many reports about different defenders linked to the Leafs throughout the season and GM Brad Treliving has talked about the topic of acquiring a defenseman multiple times since being appointed to this position last summer.
All Contract information via Capfriendly.co

Toronto Maple Leafs 2024 Defensemen Trade Deadline Targets

He attempted to shore up the blueline in free agency, paying John Klingberg just north of $4 million on a one-year deal.

Unfortunately, that didn't work out as he played 14 games for the buds before being sidelined for the season with a hip injury. Thankfully, Treliving's other signings in Simon Benoit and William Lagesson have stepped up in the wake of the battered blueline. However, if need be, they would not cut it as legitimate top-four options in the playoffs.

This is where the trade market comes into play, the Leafs have their internal options as I have discussed before but there needs to be a larger buffer before we see Lagesson or Benoit playing meaningful minutes in a game seven.

There are trade chips that the Leafs have at their disposal to make a move, they still possess their first round pick at this year's draft and an additional eight picks from rounds three through seven for depth moves or to help supplement a trade package. They also have prospects that could be dealt but I would not be keen to move them before trading away the 2024 first, first.

In terms of making the cap work, that could be helped by utilizing the draft capital in the later rounds by incentivizing a team or a third party to retain. There is also roster players like Calle Jarnkrok, Connor Timmins, or if need be, Timothy Liljegren that could be traded for an upgrade to help make the money work.

As well, there is always the option of sending players down to open up caproom, as the Leafs are currently running a full 23-man roster and we have seen them carry less players in recent years to alleviate their cap load.

Top Leafs Trade Targets

I have split my list of defensive targets into two groups, more desirable and less desirable based on a player's fit, contract situation, performance, and health among other things.

The Leafs could look to either acquire a legitimate top-four defender to make a real impact or a third pairing or seventh defenseman that could help supplement their already capable depth.

In regards to a top-four defender, most fans seem to speculate about acquiring someone that can play beside Morgan Rielly. This seems more likely with the revelation that a Brodie-Liljegren pairing works well, albeit in a small sample.

Also, in last year's layoffs the Leafs ran with a McCabe-Brodie pairing that played well as a shutdown pairing for the most part. However, there are other conceivable combinations when looking at acquiring a defenseman and I chose to not force myself to look specifically for that need.

Least Desirable

Noah Hanifin

The no-doubt top of the market when it comes to deadline acquisitions, Hanifin will demand a king's ransom for the Calgary Flames.

He finds himself in the less desirable category because it has been reported that he will only sign an extension in the U.S. and thus, would solely be a rental if he were to be acquired by the Leafs. I also have very little faith that the Flames would trade him to Toronto given how the last two trades of high profile defensemen have shaken out and they could get a lot more if they package him with an extension in place.

However, markets are weird and there are always surprises come deadline day, if the Leafs have an opportunity to acquire Hanifin and it makes sense, they should pounce on it.

Despite being a left-shot and the clear need is a right-shot, he is very much worthy of moving things around for, like Jake Muzzin was back in 2018. He has been a top-pair defender in the NHL for years, sporting good results at both ends of the ice. If given the chance, Treliving and Co. should be all over it as it would certainly make the Leafs blueline much deeper.

Nick Seeler (Least Desirable)

As far as fit goes, Seeler checks a lot of boxes. He hits, he blocks shots, and he’s great defensively, logging a lot of minutes on a second-place Flyers powerplay.

A major separating element that Seeler has is that he drives positive offensive results as well. Although he won’t be a powerplay quarterback, he can help solidify the blueline depth. He does all of this and more for a measly $800k salary.

Now to the downsides, he is a pending UFA who seems poised to see a major pay raise that the Leafs should not pay. He will be 31 by the time July 1st hits and given his style of play, he could start to decline relatively quickly. To add, he isn't sheltered but at 5v5, he doesn't play top competition a lot, at least not more significantly than against lower lines. This isn't necessarily a knock, he could be a good acquisition but it would be wise to acquire him with the sole purpose of playing third pairing minutes in mind.

Colton Parayko

The main variable around whether I deem Parayko more or less desirable is surrounding his contract. He is in the second season of an eight-year contract, carrying an AAV of $6.5 million at nearly 31-years-old.

He is an elite mobile defensive defender, that is great in tansition and that possesses great size at 6-6 and 228 lbs and he uses it. Digging into the numbers tip the scale even more in favor of Parayko, he plays against top competition and has logged between 20-24 minutes per night on average since 2016-17.

He has respectable defensive numbers, sitting 155th in xGA/60 of 234 defenders who have logged 1000 minutes at 5v5 over the past three years.

These may seem like relatively mediocre numbers but with the context that he leads all blueliners in ice time over the past three years, they start to look a little better. These numbers look even better after factoring usage and relative to teammate stats where Parayko ranks 48th in xGA/60 relative to teammates and fifth in DZS% (D-Zone Start percentage). Meaning that he starts in the defensive end of the ice, a LOT.

Then again, the Blues have lost his minutes more or less consistantly over the last few years. It has been five years since he finished with a positive Expected Goals rating, and he brings absolutely zero offense, which really cuts into how effective he can be.

His abilities are all well and good but the problem lies with his contract. Parayko will turn 31mid-way through the postseason and with six years remaining after this, there is serious cause for concern on how the contract will look only a couple seasons from now. In fact, with the Athletic rating his current value at just over a million dollars, he is one of the most overpaid players in the NHL right now.

As I mentioned before, Parayko is a big-bodied defender who uses it, meaning he is putting his body through the ringer and with his mobility being a major strength in his game, losing that could be borderline catastrophic for his effectiveness.

The Leafs should not have any interest.

Jakob Chychrun (Least Desirable)

SImilarly to Hanifin, Chychrun finds himself in the less desirable category more for issues outside of his actual on-ice ability, though there are concerns.

Speaking of his on-ice ability, he would be the number one target at the deadline if he is truly being shopped around.

He posted good results with a Coyotes team that has been marred in controversy and turmoil. It is no different with the Senators now, but there are holes present in the 25-year-old blueliner's game.

He plays very little while shorthanded historically and has played less than 12 minutes all season there. He also does not always face top competition, which makes the large price tag accompanying him seem like an overpay and tacking his extensive injury history on top of all of this makes the prospect of acquiring him seem less than ideal.

He also would be traded from a divisional and provincial rival, making it less likely that the Sens would be open to doing business with the Leafs and even if they are, they will surely be asking for a premium.

Despite these concerns about his ability, he would be an interesting player to target for any team, the Maple Leafs included.

He has one more season left on his contract after this, with an affordable $4.6 million caphit. He would provide much needed depth to the blueline either on the first or second pair as he has the ability to play both sides.

Most Desirable

Sean Walker

Walker is mainly utilized as a second pairing defender on the Philadelphia Flyers this season and has found great success.

He is not a minute-eater on the backend by any means but he has been reliable for the Flyers after being stuck in a logjam with the LA Kings for the last few seasons.

Since joining the Flyers this year, he is currently on pace for a single season career high averaging over 19 minutes a night of ice time. In those minutes, he shows great value as a two-way defender, driving offense and suppressing quality chances against at a high rate.

He currently sits 23rd and 76th in xGF/60 and xGA/60, respectively this season. Luckily, this is not much different when accounting for the past three seasons where he sits 27th and 78th in those stats. Although his defensive value is not his calling card, he has shown great value on the penalty kill this year, logging over 133 minutes.

There are minor downsides to Walker's game however, from a stylistic standpoint, he's not very large at 5-11 and 195lbs which may detract from his ability in the post-season for some.

He also does not block shots or throw hits at a high rate only surpassing 100 in either category once in his career when he registered 104 blocked shots last season.

However, his two-way game alone provides a lot of value and at a measly caphit of $2.65 million for the remainder of this season, the team could do a lot worse.

Alex Carrier (Most Desirable)

Given the narratives surrounding the Leafs blueline, Carrier seems more like a dark horse candidate for a deadline acquisition. Despite standing at only 5-11 and 174 lbs, he is good at both ends of the ice, using his stick to break up plays in his own zone.

He has proven this against top competition again and again and could be a real impact player if given the chance.

He also carries a team-friendly $2.5 million cap hit which could go as low as $675k if there are three teams involved. However, his size may be a limiting factor as a Leafs trade candidate as the consensus seems to be that the team needs a bigger bodied stay-at-home defender who can clear the netfront.

Treliving’s past actions also seem to suggest that this is the probable direction that the Leafs will go.

Adam Larsson

Larsson is a top pairing defenceman who has been the defensive anchor for the Seattle Kraken since the inaugural season of the franchise in 2021.

As a top pair d-man, he routinely faces top competition and has posted sound numbers as a result. Over the past three seasons, he sits 75th in terms of xGA/60 and 140th in GA/60 at 5v5 out of 234 defenders to log over 1000 minutes.

On the flipside, he ranks 163rd and 90th in xGF/60 and GF/60 respectively, of the same sample group. This points to the fact that he is probably performing better defensively by limiting quality chances against but is getting screwed over by bad goaltending with a poor actual goals against.

He also clearly struggles offensively and if acquired would be utilized in defensive situations almost exclusively. However, Larsson does bring a ton of value in that department, he sits fifth in penalty-kill time on ice over the past three seasons and despite the Kraken's struggles, it has been steadily improving.

His fancy stats aside, at6-3 and 209lbs Larsson comes with the traditional tools of a defensive defender as well. He has amassed over 100 blocks and hits every single year since 2015-16 besides the 2019-20 season where he only played 49 games.

That season was the pandemic and still he had a respectable 82 blockes and 112 hits. He brings a lot to the table but at a very cap friendly $4 million until the end of next season, he could be a very valuable option.

William Borgen (Most Desirable)

Borgen seems to fly under the radar of many people, he isn't the household name of a Noah Hanifin or Jakob Chychrun and isn't speculated about like a Chris Tanev or Sean Walker and he probably should be.

He is a weird case where his ice-time is relatively low logging under 20 minutes a night.

Yet, he tends to play mainly against opposing team's top competition and typically wins his minutes.

He also possesses good size at 6-3 and 204 lbs and uses it, logging nearly 500 hits in less than 200 career games.

He fits a need in many ways and has proven capable of playing second pair minutes.

This season is a little bit of a down year but he could prove to be a capable blueliner on the second pair and could be a candidate to form a shutdown pairing with McCabe or Brodie.

The only problem is at only 27 years old and with another season left on his contract with a $2.7 million AAV, I'm not sold that the Kraken are desperate to trade him.

If they will, I cannot imagine the price will be low but with his capfriendly deal and team fit, he seems like the ideal target for the Leafs.