Toronto Maple Leafs 2023-24 Newcomers' Expectations: Update
Since Brad Treliving took over the role as Toronto Maple Leafs general manager in June of last year, he has made quite a few moves to put his mark on the club.
The Toronto Maple Leafs had more than a few spots to fill and with over $15 million available, they certainly used it. Treliving was quite active in free agency, spending a whopping $16.325 million on unrestricted free agents (UFAs) within the first week.
He signed players like John Klingberg, Ryan Reaves, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Max Domi. They have all been staples in the lineup at some point throughout the season.
Before the beginning of this season, I wrote realistic expectations for the newcomers. As we enter the halfway mark of the 2023-24 campaign, I felt it would be a good time to revisit these projections and see how each player has faired thus far.
Before we begin, I want to mention that he has also signed a few players that have featured in roles to varying degrees this season. Most notably, Noah Gregor and Martin Jones. However, I will only be speaking about the four main players that I made predictions for over the summer.
Max Domi
Projection: 50 points So Far: 23 points.
Treliving signed max Domi on July 2nd to a one-year contract worth $3 million. He has seemingly cemented himself as the teams third line center behind star forwards Auston Matthews and John Tavares. He has most commonly found himself paired with Nick Robertson and Calle Jarnkrok and unsurprisingly they are the third-best line in terms of expected goals and actual goal production.
Honestly, I am surprised how close I was to this projection. Domi currently has 23 points in 42 games, pacing him at 45 points on the year. His recently found chemistry with the team has caused an uptick in production with nine points over his last 15. If he can maintain or improve on this pace, he could very well reach the 50 point mark by game 82.
Domi's advanced stats paint a much worse picture. Though the Leafs have won his minutes overall - due to extreme sheltering from Sheldon Keefe - he has a 48% Expected Goal Rating. He's useful when deployed properly, but it isn't idea to have to shelter your 3C so much.
John Klingberg
Prediction: 45 points So far: 5 points
On the opening day of free agency, July 1st, Treliving signed the offensively-minded blueliner to a one-year $4.15 million contract.
This move was met with a lot of pessimism at the time due to the similarities in playstyle and fit between Klingberg and former-Leaf Tyson Barrie.
However, nobody could have anticipated that Klingberg would only last 14 games as a Toronto Maple Leaf due to a hip injury requiring surgery. The Leafs definitely did not or else they would not have signed him for over $4 million.
In those 14 games, he scored five points, which works out to roughly 30 points over a full season. Although this isn’t 45, given the struggles that the Leafs faced early on this season, it’s not inconceivable that he would’ve hit this mark.
Unfortunately, we will never know and all we can hope for is that Klingberg recovers well from his injury troubles and is able to make a comeback in the NHL. I don't think anyone disagrees that this was a terrible signing.
Tyler Bertuzzi
Prediction: 70 points So far: 19 points
The Toronto Maple Leafs signed both Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi on the same day, drawing much excitement from the fanbase.
Bertuzzi was signed on July 2nd, to a one-year contract worth $5.5 million. As previously stated; many fans were excited by this news due to his performance and the grit he would bring.
Unfortunately, the results have yet to be fully realized for Bertuzzi.
I still believe that I wasn’t outlandish in this prediction. Although he almost certainly doesn’t hit 70 points, Bertuzzi has put up some impressive numbers over the last few seasons. So far this year he has 19 points in 42 games, which puts him on pace for 37.
It also should be noted that his play-driving numbers have been great this year and this should help his production bounce back in the second half. So far in the month of January, he has five points in only eight games. If this is a sign that he is turning things around, it could really push the Leafs more firmly into the playoffs. It would also make my prediction looks much better.
Ryan Reaves
Prediction: 12 points, 45pims, four fights. So Far: 1 point, 16 Pims 2 Fights
I had very low expectations for Reaves entering this season. I also had low expectations for the organization because I assumed their $4 million-plus investment would be playing regularly. Fortunately for the team (unfortunately for my prediction) this has not been the case. At this point, he has only played 21 games and hasn’t suited up since December 14th. In the time he’s played this season he has two fights and one point and was ineffective on the fourth line.
Selfishly, I would like the team to play Reaves more often so that my prediction will look better. However, I know that him not playing is a benefit to the club and their performance. Ultimately I am willing to take the fall and will continue to hope that the Toronto Maple Leafs don't have Reaves suiting up for them on a nightly basis.
All Advanced Stats By MoneyPuck.com
All Contract Figures and Statistics By Capfriendly.com
manual
So far, my predictions for all four players haven't been great. I am optimistic that my Domi prediction will at least be close but at this point, I don't hold out much hope. If the Leafs are able to stay more consistent in the second-half of this season, it would not only greatly help my predictions but it would also greatly help the team overall.