Thoughts and Predictions on the Pacific Division

The Canadian Cup drought has been a big talking point within hockey circles. The Toronto Maple Leafs haven't reached a Cup final since 1967, Montreal lost in the Cup final in 2021, Ottawa hasn't been back in the Cup final since 2007, Vancouver hasn't been back since 2011, Calgary hasn't been since 2004, the Jets have never made the final and the Oilers just came up short of a historic comeback in the Cup final last season.

With the Toronto Maple Leafs having their historical playoff struggles I think the best chance of a Canadian Cup winner comes from the Pacific division.

It'll be an interesting year in the Pacific division. Can the Oilers repeat last year's Cup final run? Will Vancouver have another strong year? Is Vegas going to bounce back after crashing out in the first round?

Today I'm going to go over how I think the season is going to play out in the Pacific division.

Thoughts and Predications on the Pacific Division

8. San Jose Sharks

Last season the Sharks had a terrible year, posting 47 points. They finished last in the Pacific and the league (League standings statistics from NHL.com).

I don't think the Sharks are going to be 47 points bad again, but they still won't be good.

This offseason the Sharks made some interesting moves to improve their roster. They added Ty Dellandrea, Barclay Goodrow, Jake Walman, Tyler Toffoli, Alex Wennberg, Cody Ceci, and Yaroslav Askarov. This is all without mentioning their draft where they took Macklin Celebrini and Sam Dickenson.

Dickenson probably won't play this year but Celebrini will and will probably have a big role on the team. The 2023 fourth overall pick, Will Smith will also play for the Sharks this season which will be interesting to see how he does after a good year with Boston College. Dailyfaceoff.com currently has him listed as the second-line centre.

They lost Devin Cooley, Alexander Barabanov, Ty Emberson and Filip Zadina.

I like the additions Sharks General Manager Mike Grier made. With young prospects like Celebrini and Smith entering the roster, you need guys to play with them. We saw Blackhawks General Manager Kyle Davidson do this last offseason when he added Nick Foligno, Corey Perry and Taylor Hall in the offseason that Bedard was drafted.

Celebrini having guys like Tyler Toffoli on the roster with him will be beneficial for him in his career. Getting arguably the best goaltending prospect in Askarov is also a big get for the Sharks. They're setting themselves up for the future with a lot of talent. Picking up former 13th overall pick Ty Dellandrea for a fourth-round pick is a decent bet. While Dellandrea has struggled early in his career, giving up a fourth isn't expensive for a guy who may still have some upside in him.

While I like a lot of the moves they've made there just isn't enough talent on this roster for them to make serious improvements. They won't be as bad as last year but they will be the worst in the division.

7. Calgary Flames

The Flames had a rough year last year, finishing with 81 points placing them fifth in the division.

The collapse of the Flames has been fascinating to watch unfold. What was once a team with a fun young core now holds almost none of the pieces that fought against the Oilers in the great battle of Alberta matchups.

This offseason the Flames added Kevin Bahl, Anthony Mantha, Jake Bean, and Ryan Lomberg. They also had two first-round picks in this year's draft, Zayne Parekh and Matvei Gridin however they probably won't see the ice with the Flames this season.

They lost Jacob Markström, Andrew Mangiapane, Dillon Dubé, A.J Greer and Oliver Kylington.

The Flames are in a weird spot. Although they are probably headed for a rebuild, they still have the massive contracts attached to Jonathan Huberdeau and former Leaf, Nazem Kadri. I doubt they will be able to move these deals and it might be the best option to just let their deals run out and keep them on the roster. The Huberdeau for Tkachuk deal that current Leafs General Manager, Brad Treliving made now looks like a disaster. Huberdeau has never returned to his Florida form and the extension that came with the contract is an anchor that is near impossible to move.

This season will be about the performance of the younger guys on the roster. Another step from Connor Zary would be great after he played 63 games with the Flames last year scoring 14 goals and 20 assists for a total of 34 points (all stats from NHL.com). The Flames will also be focusing on the performance of star goaltending prospect Dustin Wolf after playing 17 games last season, posting a .893 save percentage, -4.49 goals saved above average and -7.72 goals saved above expected (all advanced stats from EvolvingHockey.com).

Another focus will be how some of the signings in the offseason perform like Anthony Mantha as they could be trade chips at the deadline.

Jacob Markstrom and Noah Hanifin are both guys who the Flames had for the whole year or the majority of last season. They won't have them this year and the lack of depth will set the Flames up for a tough upcoming season.

6. Anaheim Ducks

Last season the Ducks finished the year with 59 points which placed them seventh in the Pacific division.

This year I think the Ducks should be a pretty fun team to watch. This offseason they added Brian Dumoulin and Robby Fabbri. They also had the third overall pick in this past year's draft where they took Beckett Sennecke. Sennecke isn't currently in the roster projections for the squad and we probably won't see him this season in the NHL.

They lost former Leaf William Lagesson, Max Jones and Benoit-Oliver Groulx.

I'm looking forward to seeing what this forward core can do. The 2023 second overall pick, Leo Carlsson is projected to be the first-line centre. He had a solid rookie year last year where he played 55 games scoring 12 goals and 17 assists for 29 points.

In a year where playoffs aren't in the cards, the Ducks need to see another step in his development this year for it to be successful. Another big storyline is how Cutter Gauthier will perform in his rookie year following the public falling-out with the Philadelphia Flyers, leading to his trade to Anaheim. They also have Mason McTavish who had a good year last year. They also have solid NHLers in Troy Terry, Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome.

There have been trade rumours around Trevor Zegras for a long time now but nothing has materialized.

The blue line isn't very strong but it would be big to see some steps from Ollen Zellweger who split time between the NHL and the AHL last season. He was very effective in the AHL where he played 44 games, scoring 12 goals and 25 assists for a total of 37 points (stats from AHL.com). He had 26 games in the NHL where he scored two goals and seven assists for nine points.

The 2022 10th overall pick Pavel Mintyukov is entering his sophomore season after playing 63 games, scoring four goals and 24 assists for a total of 28 points. Both Zellweger and Mintyukov taking steps in their development would be huge for the organization. The Ducks also have some veterans on that defence core to help insulate their rookies with Cam Fowler, Radko Gudas and Brain Dumoulin.

John Gibson has been in trade talks for what feels like forever now but nobody has taken on his contract yet. Lukas Dostal is a young goalie who had a good year posting a .902 save percentage, -1.05 goals saved above average, and a 2.79 goals saved above expected (Stats from EvolvingHockey.com). Their goaltending situation is interesting but they're going to have a lot of work behind this team.

The Ducks will improve from last year and I look forward to see their young talent. They will finish sixth in the Pacific division.

5. Seattle Kraken

Last season the Kraken had 81 points which had them sixth in the Pacific.

This offseason the Kraken were pretty big players in free agency. They added Brandon Montour, Chandler Stephenson and Josh Mahura. Now I know three additions including Josh Mahura who is just going to bring depth to their blue line doesn't make it sound like they were big players but they handed out two of the biggest contracts on July first. While I didn't like the deals they handed out to Montour and Stephenson, it does improve their roster.

They also drafted Berkly Catton with the eighth overall in this past draft. Caton had a monster year with the Spokane Chiefs in his draft year. He isn't projected to play in the NHL this season however so he is a player to track throughout the year for Kraken fans.

They lost Chris Dreidger, Tomas Tatar, and Brian Dumoulin. As you can tell they're running back a very similar roster as they did last season.

The reason I see Seattle moving up a spot from last season in the Pacific division has a lot to do with the weakness in the teams around them. Calgary got worse and could get worse again around the deadline as they sell, Anaheim could be a fun team to watch but they aren't a good team and San Jose is San Jose.

Adding Stephenson does help their forward core regardless of how overpriced the contract is. He is a good player and is pretty much a lock for around 55 points a season which is not worth the 6.25 million dollars he is getting (All salary statistics from PuckPedia.com).

With the cap going up each year the deal has the potential to be more palatable but right now it is a rough one. Montour will help their defence core. He can run a powerplay and can also play big minutes however I'm not quite sure what his point totals are going to look like. His last two seasons in Florida were pretty solid but before the past two seasons, his totals fluctuated. With Ron Francis giving him 7.142 million a season Seattle is going to need him to be great.

There are other pieces on the roster I like. Jared McCann has hovered or passed the 30-goal mark in each of the last three seasons which includes a 40-goal season two years ago. Matty Beniers is currently projected as the first-line centre on dailyfaceoff.com and Seattle needs a bounce-back season from him after a sophomore slump last season. I like Beniers a lot and think we can see him get back to the production he had in his rookie year this season. Vince Dunn is a great piece on the blue line and I have always been a fan of him.

The Kraken's goaltending situation does scare me. Grubauer isn't great and is being paid 5.9 million a season. Last season he had a .900 save percentage, -3.13 goals saved above average, and -0.04 goals saved above expected in 36 games. Joey Daccord had a great year last year where he played 50 games and posted a .916 save percentage, 16.21 GSAA, and a 15.9 GSAx.

There is no denying he was great for Seattle but that is the first year he has played that many games and the first time he has ever posted stats like those. If he can replicate it for a second straight season that would be huge for them but that is a question mark for me.

This team is very average. There is some upside with guys like Beniers and if Shane Wright can finally show his talent and produce over a sustained period of time but I don't see them finishing higher than fifth in the Pacific and missing the playoffs.

3. Vegas Golden Knights

Last season Vegas finished with 98 points which landed them fourth in the Pacific and the second Wild Card spot.

This offseason Vegas added Alexander Holtz, Akira Schmid, Ilya Samsonov and Victor Olofsson. They lost Logan Thompson, Paul Cotter, Jonathan Marchessault, Alec Martinez, William Carrier, Anthony Mantha, Michael Amadio, and Chandler Stephenson.

This might be the worst Vegas team we've seen since they entered the league. The decision between who was third and fourth between Vegas and LA was a tough decision. Ultimately, what put Vegas over the top for me was their defence core.

Although I said this might be the worst Vegas team we've seen this defense core is still great. They acquired Hanifin at the deadline last year from the Flames and will get a full season of him paired with Alex Pietrangelo which should be unreal. Theodore's defensive game is starting to fall off but he still produces points and Brayden McNabb is a solid defenseman in his own right. I'm not the biggest fan of the third pair which is currently projected on dailyfaceoff.com as Zach Whitecloud and Nicolas Hague.

Where the roster is lacking is in the forward core. They added Olofsson from the Sabres who struggled last year posting seven goals and eight assists in 51 games. He is projected to be on the first line with Eichel and Barbashev who are both great players. Vegas needs a fully healthy year from Eichel which he has never produced in his full career. He only played 63 games last year and Vegas is going to need to see a significant jump in that if they want a successful season.

Another elite forward Vegas has that historically has struggled with injuries is Mark Stone. Stone only played 56 games last year and it has become almost a running joke that he is always injured but always healthy in time for the playoffs. This year Vegas can't afford for Stone to miss half the regular season and just be ready for the playoffs. They're going to need him for the full season and I'm not one of those people who think he was never injured when he was on LTIR.

I like some guys on the forward core like Pavel Dorofeyev who had a strong year posting 13 goals and 11 assists for 24 points in 47 games. William Karlsson is a solid third-line centre, Holtz is still 22 and I think there is still some upside there, and Hertl will get a full year in Vegas after being acquired at the deadline last year.

When it comes to their goaltending, Adin Hill is solid. He played 35 games last year posting a .910 save percentage, 4.96 goals saved above average, and 7.79 goals saved above expected. What I don't get is the bet they're making on Samsonov. Leafs fans are familiar with Samsonov and his struggles last year. While he isn't supposed to be the starter Adin Hill played in a career-high of games last season so Samsonov will likely have to play in a good chunk of the games. Trading away Logan Thompson to Washington and replacing him with Samsonov will be something they regret after this season.

If there are injuries to the core of their forwards this season could get uglier than I have them projected. As of right now, I think Vegas make the playoffs with how weak the Pacific is this year.

2. Vancouver Canucks

Last year Vancouver was one of the biggest surprises in the league finishing with 109 points and winning the Pacific.

After their great season they brought in Jake DeBrusk, Kiefer Sherwood, Danton Heinen, Derek Forbort, Vincent Desharnais, and Daniel Sprong. They lost Sam Lafferty, Elias Lindholm, Nikita Zadorov, Ian Cole, Casey DeSmith and traded away Vasili Podkolzin.

There has been a lot of turnover with Vancouver this offseason. They got priced out of Zadorov as well as Lindholm which was their two big in-season acquisitions last year due to the Pettersson extension kicking in. They also lost some depth pieces in Lafferty, Cole and DeSmith who played 29 games in between the pipes for Vancouver as well as two in the playoffs.

DeBrusk is a good player and will play a big role in this forward core for Vancouver. Losing Lindholm is interesting because although it sounded like they wanted to bring him back, he did struggle during his time in Vancouver. Lafferty is a fine depth piece and they won't feel the loss of Ian Cole. The one loss they may feel is Zadorov. He found a role for himself in Vancouver and played very well but Boston gave him money I wouldn't have wanted the Leafs to give him.

Ultimately what I'm saying is I don't think they lost a lot. Their new third pair of Desharnais and Forbort is rough and I'm not a fan of either signings but you can acquire third pair defenseman fairly easily if it is a significant issue.

If this season were to go terribly for Vancouver it would be because of the health of their goaltending. Both Demko and Silovs are dealing with injuries right now. Demko is a spectacular goalie, for me, he is a top 7 goalie in the league when healthy but he just hasn't been. If Demko is hurt you are now relying on Silovs who had undoubtedly a great playoff and was an unreal story, but he hasn't shown he can sustain that level consistently over a large period of time in the NHL.

Vancouver will drop back a little bit but they are still a solid team. Second in the Pacific for Vancouver and a playoff matchup against the Vegas Golden Knights.

1. Edmonton Oilers

Last year the Western Conference champions finished second in the Pacific during the regular season with 104 points.

This offseason the Oilers added Viktor Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner, Matthew Savoie, Vasili Podkolzin and Ty Emberson. They lost Sam Carrick, Warren Foegele, Jack Campbell, Vincent Desharnais, Ryan McLeod, Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and Cody Ceci.

The forward core is unreal. I don't have to explain how good McDavid and Draisaitl are, any forward core with those two guys will be dangerous. Zach Hyman is coming off a 54-goal season, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a solid forward, and keeping Henrique is huge with how good the third line was with him on it.

Adding Jeff Skinner adds at least 20 goals to the forward core and I think he could reach 30 goals with Edmonton. As I've written before, Viktor Arvidsson is a good addition and if he can stay healthy he'll score at least 20 goals. If he does get banged up, that would be tough but that is 4 million in LTIR space they can use. Edmonton is a high-octane offensive team that will be fun to watch.

I'm not a fan of their blue line but they proved they can go to game seven of the cup final with a similar defence core. The first pair of Ekholm and Bouchard is great but after that, I have question marks on each pair. Nurse is overpaid but he can still be an effective player and Kulak is fine for them. It will be interesting to see how Ty Emberson fits with the team after only playing 30 games in the NHL last year with the San Jose Sharks. He is currently projected on the second pair.

Stuart Skinner had an up-and-down year last year so it will be interesting to see how he performs this year. I'm not a Skinner fan but he played well enough throughout the year, including in the playoffs to get to game seven of the cup final.

The Oilers will win the Pacific and will also be a cup contender out of the west.